Fisher Investments

Fisher Investments' May 2026 weekly review covers a strong April stock market rebound following a Q1 drop tied to the Iran war onset, the UAE's departure from OPEC and what it signals about the cartel's diminished influence, and Q1 2026 GDP results for both the US and eurozone that fell short of expectations but don't signal recession.

Ken Fisher analyzes the Iran conflict through the lens of a predictable three-phase pattern observed in energy-centric wars, arguing that oil prices will likely return to pre-conflict levels. He also discusses how regime change wars typically unfold, noting that military forces in third-world countries often turn against their own regimes when threatened.

Global stocks experienced a nearly 9% pullback in 2026 due to Middle East conflicts and energy market disruptions before recovering to new all-time highs. The video argues that markets are forward-looking and resilient, often rebounding quickly when reality proves less dire than feared. Investors are cautioned against chasing short-term trends or attempting to time market corrections.

Ken Fisher explains that true diversification is widely misunderstood. Rather than simply buying many different things, proper diversification involves combining assets that have similar long-term return expectations but move in opposite directions in the short term, resulting in a smoother path to returns with less volatility.

Ken Fisher analyzes the potential for renewed US-China tariff conflicts and their likely market impact. He argues that because markets and traders have already adapted to tariff volatility through workarounds and loopholes, any future tariff escalation would have significantly less market impact than the initial shock of Liberation Day in April 2025.

Fisher Investments covers three key market topics: upcoming central bank meetings from the Fed, BoJ, BoE, and ECB; first quarter GDP releases for the US and eurozone; and why the seasonal 'Sell in May' adage lacks merit according to historical data.

This Week in Review covers Trump's indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire, Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation hearing following the DOJ investigation closure, and market resilience despite a 9% pullback from Middle East volatility. Markets have reached new highs despite ongoing uncertainties, demonstrating their forward-looking nature and ability to price in known information quickly.

Ken Fisher analyzes the potential for renewed US-China tariffs, arguing that while Trump may re-engage in tariff conflicts, the market impact will be limited. He cites 2025 data showing that despite initial market shocks from Trump's reciprocal tariffs, actual tariff collection was only a third of projections due to widespread workarounds and gaming of the system.

The analysis cautions investors about defense stocks amid Middle East conflict, noting that while conflicts might seem to boost defense companies, markets efficiently price in expected events. Defense stocks represent only a small portion of the 11% industrial sector within global markets.

Ken Fisher argues that rising oil prices alone do not cause inflation, as inflation is actually caused by central banks creating new money. He explains that oil has inelastic demand, meaning people continue using similar amounts even when prices rise, which simply reorients production rather than changing overall economic output.

Ken Fisher argues that the stock market is the best recession predictor, with a perfect record when hitting new highs, followed by yield curve shifts as the second-best indicator. He challenges Paul Samuelson's famous criticism about the stock market's predictive failures.

Q1 2026 earnings season continues with defense contractors reporting, while analysts expect 13% S&P 500 earnings growth. April flash PMIs will gauge economic impacts from Iran conflict, and consumer sentiment hit record lows despite stocks reaching all-time highs.

This weekly market review covers ongoing US-Iran tensions with naval blockades and cease-fires, Canada's Liberal Party gaining parliamentary majority in byelections, and UK GDP showing 0.5% growth in February despite previous economic concerns.

Ken Fisher explains that true diversification isn't simply spreading investments across many different assets, but rather combining investments with similar long-term return expectations that move in opposite directions short-term. The challenge is that major asset categories like stocks and gold have very different long-term returns, making proper diversification difficult.

One year after President Trump's tariff announcement, markets have largely recovered from initial shocks, with stocks rebounding despite ongoing legal challenges. The Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs, but replacement tariffs face continued uncertainty over their scope and duration.

Ken Fisher explains that while many expect Europe to be most vulnerable to oil market disruptions due to import dependence, the countries actually most impacted are those with zero domestic oil production. Japan and South Korea, being 100% dependent on oil imports, have been hit harder than Europe or the US.

Ken Fisher addresses various financial questions, arguing that World War II didn't end the Great Depression but rather that wars create recessions through global trade disruption. He also discusses inflation expectations, bond roles, price-weighted indices, and REITs as investment vehicles.

This week's key market events include Q1 2026 earnings season with projected 13.2% S&P 500 earnings growth, China's GDP report expected to show continued but slowing growth, and IMF spring meetings with updated global economic outlook projections.

This week's review covers a conditional ceasefire between the US and Iran, US inflation rising to 3.3% in March, and reflects on one year since President Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement. Markets continue to focus on long-term trends rather than short-term headline volatility.

The speaker explains that oil price increases alone don't cause inflation - only central banks creating new money faster than economic growth does. When oil prices rise, people reallocate spending from substitutable goods to essential items like fuel, rearranging rather than increasing overall GDP.