Fisher Investments

Ken Fisher explains how to distinguish between temporary market corrections and sustained bear markets, emphasizing that real bear markets typically start gradually and accelerate their decline in the final third of their duration.

Ken Fisher argues that contrary to popular belief, Europe hasn't been more vulnerable to oil market disruptions from the Iran war than the US, despite being more import-dependent. The countries most impacted are those with zero domestic oil production like Japan and South Korea.

Fisher Investments discusses three key economic data releases for the week: March U.S. inflation data, Fed meeting minutes, and consumer confidence data. The analysis emphasizes that while these metrics generate headlines, investors shouldn't overreact to single data points or try to predict Fed actions.

Q1 2026 saw sideways market movement with correction-level volatility driven by Middle East conflicts, government shutdown fears, and tariff concerns. Despite challenges, Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations marking potential sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, while global elections in Denmark, Italy, and France created legislative gridlock that typically benefits equity markets.

Ken Fisher distinguishes between short-term corrections and sustained bear markets, explaining that while both involve significant declines, true bear markets that matter are longer-term events typically accompanied by recessions and driven by big scary stories that markets haven't yet recognized. He argues that short, sharp drops like COVID or 1987, while technically bear markets, are too fast to time successfully.

Ken Fisher argues there is no currency reset occurring with the US dollar, explaining that the current dollar decline mirrors the pattern from Trump's first presidency. He dismisses the idea that cryptocurrency movements indicate a monetary reset, noting that currencies naturally fluctuate over time.

Ken Fisher argues that fears about China dumping US Treasuries are overblown, comparing it to similar unfounded fears about Japan in the 1990s. He emphasizes that China only holds 2% of total US Treasuries, the same as Japan, making any potential sell-off a minor threat.

The March 2026 economic update covers three key areas: upcoming US jobs data following February's 92,000 job loss, eurozone inflation trends amid Middle East energy price spikes, and private credit market disruptions with fund withdrawal restrictions. The analysis emphasizes that backward-looking data shouldn't drive investment decisions while highlighting stocks as inflation hedges.

The analysis covers recent market volatility driven by Iran conflict developments, March PMI readings showing global economic resilience, and gold's counterintuitive 18% decline despite geopolitical uncertainty. The overarching message emphasizes market discipline and patience over emotional reactions to volatility.

Ken Fisher argues that fears about China dumping US Treasurys are overblown, noting that China only owns 2% of total US debt. He draws parallels to similar unfounded fears about Japan in the 1990s and explains that Treasury selling is typically just countries switching preferences between different sovereign debts.

The SEC is considering eliminating quarterly earnings reporting requirements for U.S. public companies in favor of semi-annual reporting, potentially ending a 50+ year practice. This change could reduce compliance burdens and encourage more IPOs, though implementation would take years.

Ken Fisher explains the 'midterm miracle' pattern where U.S. stocks struggle in the first three quarters of midterm election years due to political rhetoric, but historically rise 88% of the time in Q4 with ~7% average returns. This pattern significantly correlates with international markets, though not perfectly.

Ken Fisher discusses inflation measurement inaccuracies, dismisses currency reset concerns citing historical dollar patterns during Republican presidencies, and advises against commodity speculation while highlighting stock markets as the best recession predictor.

This week's key developments include March PMI data showing continued global economic resilience exceeding expectations, Denmark's snap election potentially creating political gridlock, and the approaching April 15th tax filing deadline with opportunities for retirement contributions.

Energy markets experienced volatility with oil reaching $110/barrel due to Strait of Hormuz closure from Iran conflict, while the Fed held rates steady at 3.5-3.75%. The SEC is considering eliminating quarterly earnings reporting requirements in favor of semi-annual reporting.