What AI Tech Stocks Are Signaling About This Bull
Ken Fisher argues that tech stocks are likely to continue performing well as the bull market enters its final 'euphoria' phase, citing the Cerebrus IPO as an early signal of that shift. He cautions that while the end of the bull market could be years away, stretched valuations in tech stocks make them vulnerable if something derails the broader market. He also emphasizes that the current bull market is global and much broader than just AI or tech.
Summary
Ken Fisher opens by acknowledging the resurgence of tech stocks after a weaker period, and while cautioning that predictions are speculative, he leans toward tech continuing to perform well. His reasoning centers on his belief that the bull market is transitioning into its final phase — not an imminent end, but a shift worth noting.
Fisher points to the Cerebrus IPO as a symbolic indicator of this transition. He describes the company as having significant potential but currently being small, with large orders contingent on achieving scale — something that will take considerable time to verify. Despite these uncertainties, the stock experienced dramatic post-IPO price appreciation, which Fisher interprets as a hallmark of early euphoria in a bull market cycle.
To frame this sentiment shift, Fisher invokes John Templeton's famous quote: 'Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on sentiment, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.' He argues that current market conditions — including ongoing concerns about weak European economies, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty — are ironically consistent with a maturing bull market that is beginning to tip into euphoria. The market rising amid persistent worries, while speculative valuations pop, is characteristic of this late-stage dynamic.
Fisher also pushes back against the narrative that the bull market is solely an AI or tech story. He notes that global markets, including regions with little to no tech or AI exposure, have been hitting highs throughout 2023, 2024, and into 2025. This, he argues, reflects a much broader global bull market than most investors recognize.
He closes with a measured warning: tech stocks are 'stretched pretty far,' and if something were to derail the broader bull market, tech would likely be among the first and hardest hit. The timeline for the bull market's end remains uncertain — potentially a couple of years out — but Fisher believes the current trajectory of tech outperformance, with fits and starts, is likely to continue until that inflection point arrives.
Key Insights
- Fisher argues that the Cerebrus IPO — a company with enormous market cap relative to its current size and unproven ability to scale — is an early symbolic indicator that the bull market is transitioning from optimism into euphoria.
- Fisher invokes John Templeton's framework — 'bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on sentiment, mature on optimism and die on euphoria' — to characterize the current market moment as an early euphoric phase, not yet the end.
- Fisher contends that the market rising amid persistent global concerns (weak European economies, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, political uncertainty) is itself characteristic of the late bull market dynamic where speculative valuations begin to pop despite unresolved risks.
- Fisher asserts that the current bull market is global and much broader than AI or tech, pointing out that markets with little to no tech exposure have also been hitting highs throughout 2023, 2024, and 2025.
- Fisher warns that tech stocks are 'stretched pretty far' and that if something were to derail the bull market, tech stocks would likely start behaving badly — though he believes the end of the bull market could still be a couple of years away.
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