Is 2026 the Biggest IPO Year Ever?
The video examines the potential for 2026 to be a record-breaking IPO year, driven by anticipated offerings from Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI. Fisher Investments cautions that IPOs are historically poor investments, often trailing the broader market for years. The video recommends staying grounded with a globally diversified portfolio rather than chasing flashy IPO debuts.
Summary
The video opens by highlighting that Anthropic has filed initial paperwork for an IPO, joining other high-profile private companies like SpaceX in preparing for public offerings. Anthropic raised $65 billion in new funding in May with a valuation approaching a trillion dollars, while SpaceX is targeting an IPO at a current valuation of $1.75 trillion. If Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX all debut in 2026, the year could set an all-time record for money raised through IPOs.
The video then addresses whether IPOs are smart investments, citing Fisher Investments founder Ken Fisher's famous quip that IPO stands for 'it's probably overpriced.' Historical data is cited to support the view that many IPOs trail the broader market for years following their debut.
Fisher Investments frames today's IPO activity as a sentiment indicator, arguing that markets move on the gap between expectations and reality. With expectations currently very high for US tech and AI companies, it becomes harder for actual results to exceed those expectations. However, the firm does not see this as a threat to the ongoing bull market, noting that US tech share price growth has largely been supported by real earnings, and that broader market positives remain intact.
The video concludes by advising against chasing IPOs, recommending instead a rational, grounded approach centered on compound growth within a globally diversified portfolio as the more reliable path to building long-term wealth.
Key Insights
- Fisher Investments cites Ken Fisher's argument that IPO stands for 'it's probably overpriced,' and that historically many IPOs trail the broader market for years following their debut.
- Fisher Investments argues that today's IPO activity is a signal of investor sentiment, and that markets move on the gap between expectations and reality — making high expectations themselves a risk factor.
- SpaceX is aiming to IPO at a current valuation of $1.75 trillion, making it potentially one of the largest public offerings in history.
- Fisher Investments contends that despite high expectations for US tech and AI, the bull market is not necessarily in trouble because tech share price growth has largely been supported by actual earnings.
- Fisher Investments claims that compound growth in a globally diversified portfolio — not flashy IPO debuts — is what actually helps build wealth over time.
Topics
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