3 Things You Need to Know This Week | US Inflation, Global Trade, ECB Meeting (June 8, 2026)

The video opens with a preview of the week's three major market-moving topics, framing each through Fisher Investments' broader analytical lens.

On US inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release May CPI data on Wednesday — the third full month of data since the onset of the Iran conflict. April's headline inflation came in at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, driven largely by fuel prices and rising shelter costs. Despite widespread concern about sustained inflation, Fisher Investments argues that the conditions underpinning the 2022 inflation surge — namely, a massive pandemic-era stimulus combined with supply chain disruptions creating 'too much money chasing too few goods' — are not present today. Money supply growth is described as historically normal, leading them to conclude that fears of a repeat inflationary episode are overstated.

On global trade, the US, UK, and China all release updated trade data this week. Fisher Investments highlights a largely underreported trend: trade relationships outside the US have been quietly strengthening since the start of 2025. Recent examples cited include China and Canada reducing tariffs on Chinese EV imports, the EU finalizing a trade deal with India, and the UK rolling back tariffs ahead of its own India trade agreement. The firm argues this trend of growing international cooperation is an underappreciated positive for global equities and underscores the value of geographic diversification beyond US markets.

On the ECB meeting, also on Wednesday, the European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly three years. Eurozone inflation rose to 3.2% in May — the fourth consecutive monthly increase — largely tied to energy prices from Middle East conflict disruptions. Fisher Investments contends the ECB is 'fighting the last battle,' haunted by the 2022 spike to 10.6% inflation following Russia's Ukraine invasion. They argue that episode was driven by money supply growth, not energy alone, and that without a similar monetary surge, higher energy prices typically lead to substitution rather than broad-based inflation. The firm warns that rate hikes cannot solve supply-side energy disruptions and that the greater risk for long-term investors is potential yield curve inversion from overtightening — though they note bond markets appear to be pricing things in appropriately for now.