US Jobs Report in Perspective
The US labor market has entered a period of stability, with May expected to mark three consecutive months of job growth and unemployment remaining low. However, jobs data is backward-looking and reflects decisions made months earlier, meaning its effects are already priced into forward-looking stock markets.
Summary
The transcript discusses the current state of the US labor market, noting that after a period of volatility in job growth, conditions have stabilized. May is expected to represent the first three-month stretch of consecutive job growth in a year, and low unemployment has remained steady. Together, these indicators suggest the labor market, while no longer as robust as during the post-pandemic boom, remains broadly resilient.
The speaker cautions against over-interpreting jobs data as a predictor of future economic or market performance. Jobs reports are described as backward-looking instruments — they reflect hiring decisions companies made months prior, offering useful context rather than forward guidance. Because stock markets are forward-looking, the effects of jobs data are already priced into equities by the time the numbers are released, and stocks continue to rise regardless.
Key Insights
- The speaker claims May is expected to mark the first three-month period of consecutive job growth in a year, signaling a shift from recent volatility to labor market stability.
- The speaker argues that while the labor market is no longer as strong as during the post-pandemic boom, it remains 'broadly resilient' based on steady low unemployment.
- The speaker contends that jobs numbers — whether good or bad — are backward-looking, reflecting hiring decisions companies made months earlier rather than indicating future conditions.
- The speaker asserts that jobs data provides useful context but does not predict where the economy or markets are heading.
- The speaker argues that the effects of jobs reports are already priced into stocks, which are forward-looking instruments and have continued to rise.
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] It's no secret that there's been plenty of volatility when it comes to job growth lately. With May expected to mark the first three-month period of consecutive job growth in a year, US jobs have entered a period of stability. Meanwhile, low unemployment has also remained steady, reinforcing signs that the US labor market, while not as rip-roaring as it was during the post-pandemic boom, remains broadly resilient. It's still important to remember that the numbers, good or bad, don't tell us much about what's ahead. They're more of a look back, showing decisions companies made months earlier. [0:30] It's useful context, but it doesn't predict where the economy or markets are heading. Their effects have already been priced…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Fisher Investments
3 Things You Need to Know This Week | Fed Minutes, Housing Market, Fraud Prevention (Aug. 17, 2026)
This week's financial priorities focus on the Fed's July meeting minutes (Wednesday), July housing market data (Tuesday), and rising financial fraud concerns. While investors seek clues about potential rate hikes and worry about housing weakness, broader market drivers remain strong and much negative sentiment is already priced in.
This Week in Review | US Inflation, Midterm Primaries, Q2 Earnings (Aug. 14, 2026)
This Week in Review covers July's cooling CPI data (3.4% YoY), the midterm election cycle and its historically positive market implications, and broad-based Q2 earnings growth driven by more than just AI investments. The episode emphasizes staying disciplined through political uncertainty and recognizing earnings strength across multiple sectors and geographies.
Fisher Investments’ Founder, Ken Fisher, Debunks: “Who Needs Foreign?”
Ken Fisher argues that including foreign stocks in an investment portfolio provides better diversification and lower volatility than owning only U.S. stocks, despite recent U.S. market outperformance. He contends that historically, U.S. and non-U.S. stocks deliver similar long-term returns, with performance leadership alternating between regions over 10-15 year cycles.
3 Things You Need to Know This Week | US Inflation, UK GDP, RBA (August 10, 2026)
This week's episode discusses key economic indicators including US inflation, UK GDP growth, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate policy. The outlook suggests inflation fears may be overstated, with a resilient UK economy and a cautious watch on Australian rate hikes.
This Week in Review | Record Highs, US Jobs, Yen Intervention (August 7, 2026)
This week's market review highlights new S&P 500 and global stock record highs driven by easing AI concerns and lower oil prices, mixed July employment data showing payroll decline but unemployment improvement, and coordinated US-Japan yen intervention to stabilize currency markets.