US Jobs Report in Perspective
The US labor market has entered a period of stability, with May expected to mark three consecutive months of job growth and unemployment remaining low. However, jobs data is backward-looking and reflects decisions made months earlier, meaning its effects are already priced into forward-looking stock markets.
Summary
The transcript discusses the current state of the US labor market, noting that after a period of volatility in job growth, conditions have stabilized. May is expected to represent the first three-month stretch of consecutive job growth in a year, and low unemployment has remained steady. Together, these indicators suggest the labor market, while no longer as robust as during the post-pandemic boom, remains broadly resilient.
The speaker cautions against over-interpreting jobs data as a predictor of future economic or market performance. Jobs reports are described as backward-looking instruments — they reflect hiring decisions companies made months prior, offering useful context rather than forward guidance. Because stock markets are forward-looking, the effects of jobs data are already priced into equities by the time the numbers are released, and stocks continue to rise regardless.
Key Insights
- The speaker claims May is expected to mark the first three-month period of consecutive job growth in a year, signaling a shift from recent volatility to labor market stability.
- The speaker argues that while the labor market is no longer as strong as during the post-pandemic boom, it remains 'broadly resilient' based on steady low unemployment.
- The speaker contends that jobs numbers — whether good or bad — are backward-looking, reflecting hiring decisions companies made months earlier rather than indicating future conditions.
- The speaker asserts that jobs data provides useful context but does not predict where the economy or markets are heading.
- The speaker argues that the effects of jobs reports are already priced into stocks, which are forward-looking instruments and have continued to rise.
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] It's no secret that there's been plenty of volatility when it comes to job growth lately. With May expected to mark the first three-month period of consecutive job growth in a year, US jobs have entered a period of stability. Meanwhile, low unemployment has also remained steady, reinforcing signs that the US labor market, while not as rip-roaring as it was during the post-pandemic boom, remains broadly resilient. It's still important to remember that the numbers, good or bad, don't tell us much about what's ahead. They're more of a look back, showing decisions companies made months earlier. [0:30] It's useful context, but it doesn't predict where the economy or markets are heading. Their effects have already been priced…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Fisher Investments
This Week in Review | US-Iran Conflict, US Inflation, New UK Prime Minister (July 17, 2026)
This week in review covers three major developments: escalating US-Iran tensions and oil price increases, June's better-than-expected inflation data showing a 3.5% year-over-year deceleration, and Andy Bernham becoming the UK's next prime minister. The analysis emphasizes market resilience and forward-looking pricing despite near-term volatility.
Euphoric Market Tops Have This Telltale Sign
Ken Fisher explains that true market euphoria is not simply high valuations of quality companies, but rather the creation of numerous low-substance IPOs with minimal business fundamentals designed to capitalize on investor excitement. He uses John Templeton's framework of bull market phases to distinguish between frothiness and actual euphoria, warning that the telltale sign of euphoria is the proliferation of 'all icing, no cake' companies going public.
SpaceX Joins the Nasdaq
SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index following its earlier inclusion in MSCI stock index products, marking a significant post-IPO milestone. While such rapid index inclusion can signal investor euphoria, the transcript advises against reactive investing based on index movements and recommends focusing on long-term, diversified portfolio growth instead.
Ken Fisher: 2026 Mid-Year Market Update
Ken Fisher reviews Fisher Investments' 2026 mid-year market forecast, noting it has largely materialized as predicted with strong performance. Key surprises include AI-related tech significantly outperforming the broader market and unexpected geopolitical events, while midterm election-year gridlock patterns have emerged somewhat earlier than typical.
How You Benefit From Fisher Investments' Simple Fee Structure (Fisher Investments - Canada)
Fisher Investments promotes its competitive and transparent fee structure, which charges only on assets under management without commissions. The firm argues this approach aligns their interests with clients' success and simplifies portfolio management compared to competitors.