3 Things You Need to Know This Week | Monetary Policy, EZ Sentiment, Global Trade (June 15, 2026)
Fisher Investments' weekly market briefing covers three key topics: the Fed's first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh amid US inflation driven by conflict in Iran, eurozone economic sentiment data showing signs of recovery, and underappreciated growth in global trade deals outside the US. The video argues that low sentiment, rate stability, and expanding trade agreements collectively support a bullish outlook for global stocks.
Summary
The episode opens with a focus on monetary policy, noting that both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are holding policy meetings this week. The primary focus is on the Fed, as newly appointed chair Kevin Warsh — who officially took over from Jerome Powell on May 14th — faces his first FOMC meeting on June 16th-17th. The FOMC, a 12-member body that includes former chair Jerome Powell, sets US monetary policy collectively. Both central banks are navigating an environment where US consumer prices have risen due to an ongoing conflict in Iran, while UK inflation has remained more stable but fears of resurgence persist given the UK's high inflation experience in 2022-2023. Neither bank is expected to announce rate changes, but the meetings will signal the direction of monetary policy for the rest of the year. Fisher Investments argues that stocks do not require rate cuts or hikes to continue rising, and that the greater risk is a monetary policy error such as hiking too fast or inverting the yield curve.
The second topic addresses eurozone economic sentiment, with fresh data expected on Tuesday. Sentiment turned negative in March, April, and May following the outbreak of the Iran war, though May's reading beat expectations and suggested some improvement. Fisher Investments cautions against conflating sentiment with economic reality, arguing that markets thrive on the gap between expectations and reality. When investors are pessimistic and expect things to worsen, there is greater potential for upside surprises — which they describe as a bullish signal, especially given that global stocks have recently hit new all-time highs.
The third segment covers global trade, highlighting updated trade data due from the Eurozone and Japan. Despite widespread concern over tariffs, net new global trade outside the US has grown steadily since early 2025. Fisher Investments characterizes this as an underappreciated positive that has received little media attention. They cite several examples of expanding trade cooperation: the EU signing deals with India and Latin America, China and Canada agreeing to cut tariffs on electric vehicle imports, and new agreements involving the UK, Japan, and Australia. With more deals expected through 2026, the firm believes this quiet improvement in the global trade story supports market growth and positions global stocks for further positive surprise.
Key Insights
- Kevin Warsh officially became Fed chair on May 14th, and the FOMC — a 12-member body that still includes former chair Jerome Powell — will hold its first meeting under his leadership on June 16th-17th, marking a significant transition in US monetary policy leadership.
- Fisher Investments argues that stocks do not need rate cuts or hikes to keep rising, and that the greater market risk lies in central banks making a policy error such as hiking rates too fast or inverting the yield curve.
- The firm contends that low economic sentiment is actually a bullish signal for stocks, because when investors expect things to get worse, there is a greater gap between expectations and reality that markets can exceed — citing global stocks hitting new all-time highs as supporting evidence.
- Fisher Investments claims that net new global trade outside the US has been growing steadily since the start of 2025, characterizing it as an underappreciated positive that has been largely overlooked amid tariff-focused headlines.
- The video highlights a wave of new trade agreements including EU deals with India and Latin America, China and Canada slashing tariffs on electric vehicle imports, and new deals involving the UK, Japan, and Australia — framing this trend as a meaningful tailwind for global stocks through 2026.
Topics
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