The US Midterm Campaign Trends Ken Fisher Is Watching

Ken Fisher opens by noting that primary season is still ongoing but both parties face significant headwinds heading into the fall midterm elections. He observes that this follows the typical midterm pattern where the opposition party to the sitting president tends to gain seats. Republicans face the dual challenge of low party popularity and a president who is also polling poorly, though Fisher acknowledges that the president has historically surprised skeptics, citing his 2024 re-election as an example.

On the financial side of campaigning, Fisher notes that the traditional Democratic fundraising advantage has narrowed considerably. While Democrats will still outspend Republicans, the gap is much smaller than in typical election cycles, which Fisher sees as a relative tailwind for Republicans.

For the Democrats, Fisher identifies their core strategic problem: the party has struggled to coalesce around a positive, actionable message. Their primary message has been anti-Trump, which does carry weight with independents but fails to move the Republican base. Fisher argues Democrats would be better served by articulating a concrete policy platform — 'Put us in power and we'll do this and this and this' — rather than relying solely on opposition framing. He notes Republicans similarly lack a centralized, compelling message, leaving both parties 'staggering' heading into the fall.

Fisher predicts the fall campaign will be ugly, filled with accusations and last-minute revelations. Despite the political turbulence, he concludes on a market-focused note: midterm elections historically produce congressional gridlock, and markets tend to respond positively to gridlock, which he views as the key takeaway for investors.