This Week in Review | Consumer Confidence, Iran Developments, Bond Yields (May 29, 2026)
Fisher Investments' May 29, 2026 weekly review covers three key topics: eurozone consumer confidence remaining negative but historically unremarkable, markets moving past Iran war fears despite ongoing conflict, and rising global bond yields being framed as a return to historical norms rather than a crisis.
Summary
This episode of Fisher Investments' 'This Week in Review' addresses three market developments from the week of May 29, 2026.
On eurozone consumer confidence, the host notes that Thursday's reading remained firmly negative, though slightly improved from April's three-year low. Crucially, the host points out that eurozone consumer confidence has been consistently negative for the past ten years, during which markets continued to grow. The host argues that neither GDP nor consumer confidence reliably predict stock price direction, and that with expectations already depressed despite bullish signals like a steep yield curve and positive lending growth, the bar for reality to exceed expectations is unusually low.
Regarding Iran, the host describes ongoing media coverage cycling between economic headwind narratives from rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions, and stalled peace negotiations. Despite this persistent negative coverage, the host argues that markets have already rationally priced in the conflict, evidenced by stocks reaching multiple record highs since the war began. The host frames this as a case study in why investor discipline and patience are rewarded against a backdrop of fear-driven media narratives.
On rising government bond yields, the host addresses concerns about 10- and 30-year yields hitting multi-decade highs globally. The host contends these levels are still historically normal, representing a return to pre-financial crisis monetary conditions as quantitative easing programs wind down. The host attributes investor anxiety to a misconception that bonds should have zero volatility, arguing that changing asset allocation in response to this short-term volatility risks undermining long-term financial goals.
Key Insights
- The host argues that eurozone consumer confidence has been consistently negative for ten years while markets continued growing, meaning current negative readings carry little predictive weight for stock performance.
- The host claims that with consumer confidence depressed despite bullish signals like a steep eurozone yield curve and positive lending growth, the bar for economic reality to beat expectations has 'rarely been lower.'
- The host contends that stocks reaching multiple record highs since the Iran conflict began reflects markets rationally weighing the situation and concluding the global economy is resilient enough to absorb it, rather than markets ignoring the war.
- The host argues that elevated long-term bond yields are not historically high but rather a return to normal monetary conditions as the last effects of post-2007 quantitative easing programs — which artificially suppressed long-term rates — finally wind down.
- The host claims investor alarm over rising yields stems from a mistaken belief that bonds are the 'ultimate stable investment,' causing normal yield volatility to appear as a systemic shock rather than a routine fluctuation with decades of historical precedent.
Topics
Transcript
[0:06] Hello and welcome to This Week in Review. This weekly segment is designed to highlight a few important developments you may have missed this week, what they mean for markets, and more importantly, the potential impact for investors. To stay up to date with our latest market insights, subscribe to our YouTube channel or visit FisherInvestments.com. Now, let's review what happened this week. First, eurozone consumer confidence. On Thursday, we got a look at the latest consumer confidence readings in the eurozone, where overall sentiment remains firmly in negative territory, [0:39] though up slightly from April's three-year low. While this may not sound like cause for celebration, it's worth remembering that eurozone consumer confidence has been consistently negative for…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Fisher Investments
This Week in Review | S&P 500 Record High, Fed Minutes, Spain Election (Oct. 9, 2026)
This Week in Review covers three major market developments: the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high, the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicating potential rate hikes ahead, and Spain's snap election scheduled for November 29th. The segment emphasizes that record highs are typically milestones in bull markets rather than peak signals, cautions against overweighting Fed guidance, and argues that political uncertainty in Spain may be less disruptive than headlines suggest.
What Causes a Deep Recession?
Ken Fisher distinguishes between what triggers recessions (dislocations like regulatory changes) and what makes them deep (accumulated economic excesses). He notes that the U.S. hasn't experienced a traditional business cycle recession in 17 years, which may have allowed significant unrecognized risks and inefficient investments to build up globally.
Ken Fisher: A Candid Take on US-Canada Tariffs
Ken Fisher argues that President Trump's tariffs on Canada have been ineffective at reducing the trade deficit, noting that the deficit actually grew following the April 2nd, 2025 tariff announcement. Fisher expresses a fundamental bias against tariffs, characterizing them as a negative economic tool that fails to accomplish stated policy goals.
Today’s IPO Market vs. the Dot-Com Bubble
Fisher Investments analyzes the current IPO market, political landscape, inflation, and corporate earnings, concluding that while elevated IPO activity signals budding optimism, the market environment remains healthy with strong fundamentals, gridlock-driven stability post-midterms, and broad-based earnings growth supporting continued bullish positioning.
Ken Fisher: Are Major Market Crashes Less Likely Today?
Ken Fisher discusses whether major market crashes and recessions are becoming less likely in modern times, acknowledging that while increased information access and computerization could enable faster responses and better problem prevention, there is insufficient empirical evidence to firmly support this hypothesis.