Ken Fisher: Always Prepare for Volatility Ahead

Ken Fisher opens by addressing the market downdraft caused by the Iranian war, noting that while it created noticeable turbulence, it did not reach the threshold of a formal stock market correction. He defines a correction as a broad market index decline of more than 10% but less than 20%, and explains that declines below 10% are simply considered normal short-term volatility and noise — which is what the Iranian war event produced.

Fisher then broadens the discussion to the nature of stock market volatility itself, asserting that regardless of the timeframe examined, more volatility is always a high-probability outcome. He distinguishes between two forms of volatility: upward moves, which he calls 'pleasant volatility,' and downward moves, which he calls 'unpleasant volatility.' He stresses that the timing of market drops is fundamentally unpredictable and can be triggered by real events, fictitious narratives, or entirely unfounded fears.

Finally, Fisher shares his specific market forecast for 2026. He predicts that the first half of the year will be characterized by a 'begrudging sideways' movement — pulsating and uncertain, but without a significant upward or downward trend. He expresses more optimism about the second half of 2026, anticipating a more meaningful market advance. He closes with a core message: investors should always remain prepared for volatility, as it is an inherent and unavoidable characteristic of equity markets.