3 Things You Need to Know This Week | US Inflation, US Q1 GDP, Graduation Season (May 25, 2026)

The episode opens by previewing Thursday's PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Heading into the release, CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.3% year-over-year in March and 3.8% in April, while March PCE came in at 3.5%, the highest reading since May 2023. Despite growing fears of a new wave of runaway inflation — partly driven by higher energy prices tied to Middle East conflict — Fisher Investments argues a larger or prolonged inflation spike is unlikely. They point to moderate money supply growth as a key reason, and note that higher oil prices have not yet flowed through into other goods categories. As evidence, they cite a 0.7% price decline in chemical-intensive household cleaning products. They argue that businesses can only pass along higher costs when demand is strong enough, which typically requires broad money supply acceleration.

The second segment covers the Bureau of Economic Analysis's second estimate of Q1 2026 GDP, also due Thursday. The initial estimate showed growth accelerating from 0.5% annualized in Q4 2025 to 2.0% in Q1 2026. While recent quarters have seen initial GDP readings revised downward, Fisher Investments argues the more important point is that GDP is a backward-looking measure, and markets are already pricing in past data. They emphasize that forward-looking indicators — including a steepening US yield curve and positive purchasing manager indexes — suggest continued economic growth ahead.

The third segment uses graduation season as a prompt for estate and financial planning. Fisher Investments encourages families with accumulated wealth to review how they are preparing for future costs like education, and to ensure legal and financial structures are properly aligned. They recommend coordinating wills, portfolios, and estate plans with appropriate professionals to support both near-term milestones and long-term legacy goals.