3 Things You Need to Know This Week | April CPI, Prediction Markets, Financial Fraud (May 11, 2026)
Fisher Investments' weekly briefing covers three topics: April CPI data and why sustained high inflation is unlikely without money supply growth, the risks and limited investment value of prediction markets, and how to protect yourself from increasingly sophisticated AI-driven financial fraud.
Summary
The episode opens with a preview of the upcoming April Consumer Price Index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. March headline inflation had accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February, largely driven by energy price increases stemming from the conflict in Iran. While some fear a repeat of 2022's hot inflation, Fisher Investments argues that sustained high inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon requiring an oversupply of money relative to goods and services. They note that energy cost increases do not directly affect the money supply but simply redirect consumer spending. With money supply growth currently tame and in line with historically moderate inflation levels, they do not expect inflation to rise significantly further.
The second segment addresses prediction markets, which recently gained attention after the Senate unanimously voted to ban members and staff from participating in them. Fisher Investments characterizes these platforms as essentially a form of gambling rather than investment opportunities, citing data that just 0.1% of accounts on two major platforms generated 67% of profits since November 2022, while 70% of users lost money. Regulatory oversight remains limited. However, the firm sees value in prediction markets as sentiment gauges, arguing they capture collective expectations more dynamically than traditional surveys because participants are voting with real money, reflecting stronger conviction than survey responses alone.
The final segment focuses on the growing threat of financial fraud. The FTC reported $15.9 billion in consumer losses in 2025, up from $12 billion in 2024, with investment scams via social media accounting for $1.1 billion. Fisher Investments notes that AI has made scammers more sophisticated, but emphasizes that most losses come from consumers voluntarily handing over information rather than from cyberattacks. Common fraud patterns include impersonating trusted organizations, creating artificial urgency, and demanding payment via cryptocurrency, gift cards, or wire transfers. Protective habits include resisting pressure to act quickly, never sharing personal information in response to unsolicited requests, verifying identities through official channels, and seeking a second opinion from a trusted person.
Key Insights
- Fisher Investments argues that sustained high inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon driven by money supply oversupply, and that rising energy costs from the Iran conflict simply redirect consumer spending rather than directly inflating the money supply — making a 2022-style inflation repeat unlikely.
- Fisher Investments characterizes prediction markets as essentially gambling, citing data showing that just 0.1% of accounts on two popular platforms generated 67% of all profits since November 2022, while 70% of users lost money overall.
- Fisher Investments argues that prediction markets offer more dynamic sentiment signals than traditional surveys because participants are committing real money, implying stronger conviction — though they acknowledge participants are betting on what they think and hope, not necessarily what they know, meaning these markets can still be wrong.
- The FTC reported $15.9 billion in US consumer fraud losses in 2025, up from $12 billion in 2024, with Fisher Investments emphasizing that most losses result from consumers voluntarily handing over information rather than from hackers breaching computer systems.
- Fisher Investments identifies three common traits of fraudulent communications — they are unexpected, unsolicited, and urgently demand action — and argues that scammers rely on fear and confusion, making informed and patient individuals far harder targets.
Topics
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