Macro Voices

Tian Yang discusses how Trump's policies create a challenging macro environment with sticky inflation above target, trend-to-below-trend growth, and high volatility. He argues Trump is repeating Reagan's playbook using trade policy for reshoring, while the Monroe Doctrine is returning to geopolitics with localized spheres of influence.

Michael Every discusses Trump's recent diplomatic moves with Ukraine, trade policies including tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, and four major executive orders reshaping US strategy. He argues this represents a coordinated 'grand macro strategy' focused on containing China while building a coalition of US allies.

Jeff Snider discusses the Mar-a-Lago Accord proposals to reform the global monetary system, arguing that while the willingness to pursue radical change is positive, the current approach misunderstands the root causes of dollar strength and would likely fail to achieve its goals.

Darius Dale discusses his systematic macro framework focusing on sticky inflation, fourth turning dynamics, and Trump's policy implications. He argues inflation will bottom around 2.6% and trend higher throughout 2025, challenging the Fed's 2% target, while analyzing the 'Triple S' risks from policy changes.

Rory Johnston discusses oil market fundamentals entering 2025, arguing that despite Trump's drill-baby-drill rhetoric, proposed tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude would significantly disrupt U.S. refining operations since these heavy crudes are essential for blending with U.S. shale oil. He sees modest supply deficits continuing with gradually higher prices.

Rabobank strategist Michael Every discusses how Trump's return to presidency will bring massive volatility as he shifts from traditional economic policy to 'economic statecraft' - using economic tools to achieve foreign policy and national security goals rather than just economic targets.

Isabella Kaminska discusses her transition from financial to political journalism, arguing that markets are missing signals because information must reach mainstream acceptance before being priced in. She compares the current Western stagnation to the Soviet Union's decline and predicts a reform cycle requiring both transparency (glasnost) and structural changes (perestroika).

Luke Gromen discusses his 2025 outlook, warning of near-term market turbulence due to dollar strength and rising treasury yields, followed by eventual dollar weakening policies. He emphasizes critical risks from the incoming Trump administration's DOGE spending cuts if implemented before addressing debt-to-GDP ratios.

Copenhagen Atomics founder Thomas Jam Pedersen discusses why advanced Generation 4 nuclear reactor designs are necessary to replace fossil fuels, arguing that conventional 1950s nuclear technology cannot scale to meet energy transition needs. He explains how molten salt reactors using thorium fuel could enable mass production and dramatically reduce energy costs.

Eurasia Group's Robert Kahn discusses four major geopolitical risks for 2025: Trump 2.0's disruptive policies including significant tariff increases, deteriorating US-China relations with potential trade war escalation, and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East that could create market volatility.

David Rosenberg reflects on his bearish market stance in 'Lament of a Bear,' acknowledging the market's continued strength while explaining it through AI's transformational impact and Trump's business-friendly policies. Despite recognizing bullish factors, he remains cautious due to extreme valuations, crowded positioning, and potential risks ahead.

Justin Huhn discusses the nuclear renaissance driven by AI/data center demand from big tech companies, his successful bottom call on uranium mining stocks, and the fundamental supply-demand imbalance in uranium markets caused by geopolitical tensions with Russia and growing nuclear capacity worldwide.

Jeff Currie discusses post-Trump election market anomalies, arguing that marginal buyers and markets are fundamentally changing across asset classes. He contends that natural gas has become the new marginal energy molecule, displacing oil's traditional pricing role, while passive investors now dominate equity markets at 60% ownership.

Daniel Lacalle discusses whether Trump trades have peaked or are just beginning, analyzing geopolitical tensions from Biden's authorization of Ukraine to strike Russia with U.S. missiles, and evaluating Trump's economic policies including tariffs, inflation management, and potential Bitcoin reserves at the Federal Reserve.

Vincent Deluard discusses his thesis on secular inflation driven by policy responses rather than external shocks, arguing that recessions have been effectively cancelled through government intervention. He introduces the 'Five Body Problem' framework for understanding macro conditions and explores the shadow economy's impact on economic resilience.

Dr. Pippa Malmgren discusses Trump's 2024 election victory as a cultural transformation representing a shift from old establishment versus new anti-establishment forces, with Bobby Kennedy playing a pivotal role in bringing together tech leaders to introduce transparency and AI-driven accountability to government operations.

Darius Dale argues that regardless of who wins the 2024 US election, both candidates will significantly increase government debt, driven by populist pressures in a Fourth Turning. He maintains bullish views on markets due to Fed dovishness, resilient US economy, and increasing global liquidity despite sticky inflation concerns.

Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson discusses his dollar milkshake theory, arguing that foreign holdings of US treasuries remain at all-time highs despite BRICS nations' attempts to challenge dollar dominance. He provides technical analysis suggesting gold may be due for a pullback after reaching cup-and-handle targets, while maintaining long-term bullish views on both the dollar and gold.

Dr. Anas Al-Hajji discusses Middle East geopolitical risks in oil markets, analyzing potential Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities and their limited impact. He argues that China's oil demand decline is primarily due to economic slowdown rather than electric vehicle adoption, and warns of severe supply shortages in the late 2020s due to massive underinvestment.

Harley Bassman argues that mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are currently the best risk-adjusted investment in the bond market, particularly newly issued higher-coupon bonds trading near par. He believes the bond market has found its trading range around current levels and sees MBS as an attractive way to sell volatility through embedded call options.