MacroVoices #494 Micheal Every: Markets, Policy, Russia & More
Michael Every discusses Trump's geopolitical strategy including the Ukraine-Russia summit, arguing the US is implementing a grand macro plan involving stable coins, Fed policy changes, and strategic pivoting to Asia while forcing Europe into economic subordination.
Summary
In this wide-ranging interview, Rabobank's Michael Every analyzes the Trump-Putin summit on Ukraine, characterizing it as likely ending a phase of the war rather than the war itself. He argues Trump is implementing what he calls a 'Noxian' strategy - attempting to peel Russia away from China by offering breathing space on Ukraine while pivoting US focus to Asia. Every predicts Ukraine will lose about 20% of its territory to Russia, with Europe forced to provide security guarantees and purchase massive amounts of US weapons. He describes this as part of a 'reverse Marshall Plan' where Europe invests in US factories and becomes economically subordinated. Every explains how stable coins backed by T-bills could replace the petrodollar system, creating new dollar demand while allowing the US to control financial flows. He sees Fed chair replacement discussions as part of coordinating monetary policy with this grand strategy. On Europe-US relations, he argues Europe will be 'subsumed into a greater US production system' despite resentment, lacking realistic alternatives. Every also discusses firing of the BLS head, arguing US economic statistics have been unreliable for years due to structural changes and poor methodology. He maintains bullish outlook on precious metals and other hedges despite short-term peace expectations, viewing current events as part of accelerating global system bifurcation.
Key Insights
- Every argues the Trump-Putin summit will likely end a phase of the Ukraine war rather than the war itself, with Ukraine losing about 20% of its territory to Russia
- He claims Trump is implementing a 'Noxian' strategy to peel Russia away from China by making nice with Moscow, though he believes this won't work because Russia and China are too closely aligned
- Every predicts Europe will be forced to provide security guarantees for Ukraine and purchase massive amounts of US weapons, becoming economically subordinated to the US
- He describes a 'reverse Marshall Plan' where Europe invests hundreds of billions in US factories rather than the US rebuilding Europe
- Every argues stable coins backed one-to-one by T-bills could replace the petrodollar system, creating new demand for both stable coins and Treasury bills
- He claims the Fed chair replacement discussions are designed to install someone who understands how to use monetary tools like swap lines as weapons in the grand strategy
- Every argues US actions in the Middle East have successfully put Iran 'back in its box' and demonstrated to China and Russia that the US will use enormous targeted force when needed
- He believes Europe has no realistic options but to cave to US demands despite their resentment, lacking the military spending and economic independence needed for strategic autonomy
- Every argues the BLS has been a 'joke' for years due to poor methodology, constant revisions, and failure to capture 10-20 million undocumented immigrants in statistics
- He maintains that precious metals remain attractive hedges because global system bifurcation pressures are rising despite short-term peace expectations
- Every claims the world has moved from separate economic policies to integrated 'economic statecraft' where all policies serve strategic national security goals
- He argues that GDP and Fed policy should be understood as tools to maintain US global hegemony rather than targeting specific inflation or employment metrics
Topics
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