MacroVoices #470 Michael Every: A Week Where Decades Happen?
Michael Every discusses Trump's recent diplomatic moves with Ukraine, trade policies including tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, and four major executive orders reshaping US strategy. He argues this represents a coordinated 'grand macro strategy' focused on containing China while building a coalition of US allies.
Summary
Michael Every analyzes the dramatic week in US foreign and economic policy, beginning with the diplomatic breakdown between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office, which he characterizes as a 'diplomatic failure of historic proportions.' He explains that the proposed $500 billion Ukrainian mineral deal is largely a 'fig leaf' - Ukraine doesn't actually possess substantial rare earth reserves, but the deal serves as political cover for Trump to exit the Ukraine conflict while avoiding security commitments. Every then examines Trump's tariff strategy, noting that while 20% tariffs on China are confirmed, the fate of Canada/Mexico tariffs remains uncertain. He suggests these could be waived if those countries agree to match US tariffs on China, creating a joint North American bloc against China. The discussion covers four significant executive orders: the America First Investment Strategy (blocking Chinese investment while fast-tracking China-free companies), USTR investigation into Chinese maritime industries (imposing massive fees on Chinese-built ships), cryptocurrency regulations (requiring 'made in America' assets), and the creation of a US Sovereign Wealth Fund (which Every describes as essentially an 'executive branch slush fund' using financialization to acquire hard assets like Greenland without congressional oversight). Every argues all these moves are part of a coherent strategy to contain China while building a coalition of allies, and discusses the global spread of populism as a response to technological transitions and economic dissatisfaction.
Key Insights
- Every characterizes the Trump-Zelensky Oval Office meeting as a 'diplomatic failure of historic proportions' that should never have been conducted publicly
- The proposed $500 billion Ukrainian mineral deal is largely a 'fig leaf' since Ukraine doesn't actually possess substantial rare earth reserves worth that amount
- Trump's strategy aims to quickly exit Ukraine to focus 100% on the Asia pivot against China, potentially attempting an 'inverse Nixon' detente with Russia
- The America First Investment executive order creates a two-tier system where China-linked investments are banned while China-free companies get fast-track approval
- The USTR maritime investigation will impose up to $1 million fees per port visit on Chinese-built ships and require increasing percentages of US exports to use American vessels
- Every describes the US Sovereign Wealth Fund as essentially an 'executive branch slush fund' that uses financialization to acquire hard assets without congressional oversight or adding to the debt balance sheet
- The current populist wave globally represents a response to technological transitions, economic phase shifts, and demographic changes, with young people particularly dissatisfied due to worse prospects than previous generations
- Every argues Trump's strategy makes more strategic sense if it creates a larger bloc including Canada, Mexico, UK and Australia against China rather than 'US alone against everybody'
- The 10-year Treasury yield drop of 50 basis points may be deliberately engineered through DOGE spending cuts to create recessionary pressure that brings down yields
- Every predicts that if current populism fails to deliver results, 'far worse populism is to come' rather than a return to technocratic governance
- All current geopolitical moves including Ukraine, Russia relations, European defense, and trade policy are ultimately driven by the 'grand macro strategy' focused on China as the primary rival
- The cryptocurrency selloff despite pro-crypto executive orders reflects requirements that assets must be 'made in America' to qualify for the proposed crypto reserve
Topics
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