MacroVoices #470 Michael Every: A Week Where Decades Happen?
Michael Every discusses Trump's recent diplomatic moves with Ukraine, trade policies including tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, and four major executive orders reshaping US strategy. He argues this represents a coordinated 'grand macro strategy' focused on containing China while building a coalition of US allies.
Summary
Michael Every analyzes the dramatic week in US foreign and economic policy, beginning with the diplomatic breakdown between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office, which he characterizes as a 'diplomatic failure of historic proportions.' He explains that the proposed $500 billion Ukrainian mineral deal is largely a 'fig leaf' - Ukraine doesn't actually possess substantial rare earth reserves, but the deal serves as political cover for Trump to exit the Ukraine conflict while avoiding security commitments. Every then examines Trump's tariff strategy, noting that while 20% tariffs on China are confirmed, the fate of Canada/Mexico tariffs remains uncertain. He suggests these could be waived if those countries agree to match US tariffs on China, creating a joint North American bloc against China. The discussion covers four significant executive orders: the America First Investment Strategy (blocking Chinese investment while fast-tracking China-free companies), USTR investigation into Chinese maritime industries (imposing massive fees on Chinese-built ships), cryptocurrency regulations (requiring 'made in America' assets), and the creation of a US Sovereign Wealth Fund (which Every describes as essentially an 'executive branch slush fund' using financialization to acquire hard assets like Greenland without congressional oversight). Every argues all these moves are part of a coherent strategy to contain China while building a coalition of allies, and discusses the global spread of populism as a response to technological transitions and economic dissatisfaction.
About this episode
MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Michael Every. They'll discuss Michael’s prescient advice to “Take President Trump seriously but not necessarily literally” as he unpacks major headlines, from Oval Office antics and tariffs to executive orders, crypto, global populism, and U.S.-China relations. https://bit.ly/41szF2j 🔻Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook 📈📉: https://bit.ly/4i2GWNm ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/4cMmu0d 🔴 Subscribe to Patrick’s Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna 🔴 Subscribe to Erik's Substack: https://eriktownsend.substack.com/ 🔴 Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Please visit our website https://www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials
Key Insights
- Every characterizes the Trump-Zelensky Oval Office meeting as a 'diplomatic failure of historic proportions' that should never have been conducted publicly
- The proposed $500 billion Ukrainian mineral deal is largely a 'fig leaf' since Ukraine doesn't actually possess substantial rare earth reserves worth that amount
- Trump's strategy aims to quickly exit Ukraine to focus 100% on the Asia pivot against China, potentially attempting an 'inverse Nixon' detente with Russia
- The America First Investment executive order creates a two-tier system where China-linked investments are banned while China-free companies get fast-track approval
- The USTR maritime investigation will impose up to $1 million fees per port visit on Chinese-built ships and require increasing percentages of US exports to use American vessels
- Every describes the US Sovereign Wealth Fund as essentially an 'executive branch slush fund' that uses financialization to acquire hard assets without congressional oversight or adding to the debt balance sheet
- The current populist wave globally represents a response to technological transitions, economic phase shifts, and demographic changes, with young people particularly dissatisfied due to worse prospects than previous generations
- Every argues Trump's strategy makes more strategic sense if it creates a larger bloc including Canada, Mexico, UK and Australia against China rather than 'US alone against everybody'
- The 10-year Treasury yield drop of 50 basis points may be deliberately engineered through DOGE spending cuts to create recessionary pressure that brings down yields
- Every predicts that if current populism fails to deliver results, 'far worse populism is to come' rather than a return to technocratic governance
- All current geopolitical moves including Ukraine, Russia relations, European defense, and trade policy are ultimately driven by the 'grand macro strategy' focused on China as the primary rival
- The cryptocurrency selloff despite pro-crypto executive orders reflects requirements that assets must be 'made in America' to qualify for the proposed crypto reserve
Topics
Transcript
This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is, bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Ceresna. Macro Voices episode 470 was produced on March 6th, 2025. I'm Eric Townsend. RoboBank's Michael Avery returns as this week's feature interview guest. We thought Michael's advice to take President Trump seriously, but not necessarily literally, proved to be quite prescient. So we asked him back to comment on this week's overwhelming news flow on so many fronts, from Trump and Zelensky's…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Macro Voices
MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France
Dr. Anas Alhajji discusses the 'three seas crisis' (Gulf, Red Sea, Black Sea) and its permanent impact on global energy markets, including refinery capacity shortages and the need for infrastructure redundancy. Louis-Vincent Gave warns that France faces an emerging market-style debt crisis with fiscal, energy, political, and social dimensions that could threaten the euro's stability.
MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants
Yasser Arafat, CTO of Allo Atomics, discusses the company's plans to mass-produce advanced nuclear reactors at scale, arguing that cost-competitive nuclear energy (cheaper than coal and gas) could be achieved within years, not decades, by leveraging manufacturing principles similar to Tesla's approach. He addresses fuel supply chain constraints, nuclear waste recycling potential, and competitive threats from China while outlining a pathway to transition global energy systems away from fossil fuels.
MacroVoices #553 Brent Johnson: Disparate Housewives
Brent Johnson discusses the dollar's breakout above 102, analyzing why the greenback continues strengthening despite expectations for decline, while also exploring the deepening coordination between the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department in what he calls the "Disparate Housewives" framework. He argues the US remains positioned to weather higher rates better than other economies, and frames the current geopolitical environment as analogous to the early Cold War era with China rather than a replay of the 1970s.
MacroVoices #552 David Rosenberg: Navigating The Noise
David Rosenberg argues that inflation concerns are overblown despite recent energy price spikes, contending that without wage pressures entering the labor market, price shocks will remain transitory. He identifies the November 3rd midterm elections and November 4th Treasury refunding announcement as pivotal catalysts that could trigger significant bond market rallies and economic slowdown as fiscal stimulus ends and gridlock returns.
MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2)
Michael Every from Rabobank discusses the interconnected geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, analyzing how conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and potential Taiwan invasion scenarios serve as strategic moves in a broader great power competition. He examines emerging policy shifts including potential diesel export bans, AI arms races, and nuclear escalation risks while arguing that national security concerns are overriding traditional free market economics.