Fisher Investments

Prediction markets are described as a form of gambling where a tiny fraction of users generate most profits while the majority lose money. The hosts caution against treating them as investment opportunities but acknowledge their value as sentiment gauging tools. They argue prediction markets capture collective expectations more dynamically than traditional surveys because participants back their beliefs with real money.

Ken Fisher outlines a three-phase pattern observed across nine post-1980 energy-centric conflicts, explaining how oil prices and stock markets behave predictably before, during, and after fighting begins. He applies this framework to the Iranian conflict, noting that falling oil prices and rising stocks to all-time highs are consistent with the third phase. Fisher concludes that oil prices 6-12 months after a conflict begins are typically lower than pre-conflict levels.

Fisher Investments' weekly briefing covers three topics: April CPI data and why sustained high inflation is unlikely without money supply growth, the risks and limited investment value of prediction markets, and how to protect yourself from increasingly sophisticated AI-driven financial fraud.

Michael Hanson of Fisher Investments addresses investor questions on US-Iran tensions, defense stocks, IPOs, the new Fed Chair, and private credit risks. He argues that markets are resilient and adaptive, typically recovering faster than expected from regional conflicts. He sees the second half of 2026 as potentially strong due to the 'Midterm Miracle' pattern of Congressional gridlock.

Fisher Investments' May 8, 2026 weekly review covers three major topics: a US court ruling striking down Trump's Section 122 tariffs, context around US national debt surpassing 100% of GDP, and April's stronger-than-expected jobs report showing 115,000 nonfarm payrolls added. The segment argues markets have largely priced in tariff risk, that debt-to-GDP is a misleading metric, and that AI-related layoffs should be viewed in broader historical and economic context.

Ken Fisher discusses stock market volatility in the context of the Iranian war's market impact, explaining that a less-than-10% decline is considered normal noise rather than a correction. He argues that volatility is always a high-probability event in any time frame and advises perpetual preparedness. Fisher also shares his 2026 market forecast, predicting a sideways first half and a stronger advance in the second half.

The UAE's planned withdrawal from OPEC signals a decline in the cartel's influence over global oil markets. The US has emerged as the dominant swing producer, and economies have become less oil-intensive, reducing the impact of oil shocks. The analysts argue that investor fears about OPEC's power are overblown relative to market realities.

The speaker debunks the common belief that World War II ended the Great Depression, arguing that war does not end recessions. Instead, wartime manufacturing activity is mistakenly conflated with GDP growth, and world wars actually disrupt global trade, causing economic dislocation.

Ken Fisher warns investors against the common impulse to buy defense stocks when military conflicts begin, calling it a 'head fake' from what he terms 'The Great Humiliator.' He argues that sustained defense stock gains require unexpected increases in global defense spending, not the onset of conflict itself. Fisher also contends that military conflicts cost less than assumed because they partially replace normal training expenditures.

Fisher Investments' weekly market update covers three key topics: global PMI data showing business resilience despite the Iran conflict, record-low US consumer confidence and its disconnect from market reality, and weakness in the US housing market. The video argues that pessimistic sentiment creates bullish opportunities and that housing's economic influence is often overstated. Global stocks have recently hit all-time highs despite ongoing geopolitical concerns.

Fisher Investments' May 2026 weekly review covers a strong April stock market rebound following a Q1 drop tied to the Iran war onset, the UAE's departure from OPEC and what it signals about the cartel's diminished influence, and Q1 2026 GDP results for both the US and eurozone that fell short of expectations but don't signal recession.

Ken Fisher analyzes the Iran conflict through the lens of a predictable three-phase pattern observed in energy-centric wars, arguing that oil prices will likely return to pre-conflict levels. He also discusses how regime change wars typically unfold, noting that military forces in third-world countries often turn against their own regimes when threatened.

Global stocks experienced a nearly 9% pullback in 2026 due to Middle East conflicts and energy market disruptions before recovering to new all-time highs. The video argues that markets are forward-looking and resilient, often rebounding quickly when reality proves less dire than feared. Investors are cautioned against chasing short-term trends or attempting to time market corrections.

Ken Fisher explains that true diversification is widely misunderstood. Rather than simply buying many different things, proper diversification involves combining assets that have similar long-term return expectations but move in opposite directions in the short term, resulting in a smoother path to returns with less volatility.

Ken Fisher analyzes the potential for renewed US-China tariff conflicts and their likely market impact. He argues that because markets and traders have already adapted to tariff volatility through workarounds and loopholes, any future tariff escalation would have significantly less market impact than the initial shock of Liberation Day in April 2025.

Fisher Investments covers three key market topics: upcoming central bank meetings from the Fed, BoJ, BoE, and ECB; first quarter GDP releases for the US and eurozone; and why the seasonal 'Sell in May' adage lacks merit according to historical data.

This Week in Review covers Trump's indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire, Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation hearing following the DOJ investigation closure, and market resilience despite a 9% pullback from Middle East volatility. Markets have reached new highs despite ongoing uncertainties, demonstrating their forward-looking nature and ability to price in known information quickly.

Ken Fisher analyzes the potential for renewed US-China tariffs, arguing that while Trump may re-engage in tariff conflicts, the market impact will be limited. He cites 2025 data showing that despite initial market shocks from Trump's reciprocal tariffs, actual tariff collection was only a third of projections due to widespread workarounds and gaming of the system.

The analysis cautions investors about defense stocks amid Middle East conflict, noting that while conflicts might seem to boost defense companies, markets efficiently price in expected events. Defense stocks represent only a small portion of the 11% industrial sector within global markets.

Ken Fisher argues that rising oil prices alone do not cause inflation, as inflation is actually caused by central banks creating new money. He explains that oil has inelastic demand, meaning people continue using similar amounts even when prices rise, which simply reorients production rather than changing overall economic output.