Geopolitical Cousins

Four geopolitical strategists discuss their formative experiences, intellectual development, and the state of geopolitical analysis as a discipline. They explore what it takes to become an effective analyst, critique academia's failures in training practitioners, and debate whether corporations need dedicated chief geopolitical officers.

Four geopolitical analysts discuss how the world could end within 10 years through interconnected crises: de-globalization and demographic collapse (Zeihan), Russian political instability and potential nuclear conflict (Gertken), Chinese aggression driven by insecurity amid technological change (Gerken), and the erosion of the nation-state model alongside systemic complexity (Gerken). They argue that declining demand, aging populations, fragile supply chains, and emerging autonomous military technologies create cascading vulnerabilities with no single solution.

A podcast discussion analyzing the 2026 World Cup through quantitative modeling, geopolitical implications, and spectator experience. The hosts evaluate what their BCA Research model predicted correctly (26 of 32 knockout games), what it missed (upsets like Cape Verde and Switzerland), and debate broader issues from Messi's performance to FIFA corruption and immigration policy.

Two geopolitical analysts discuss escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz between the U.S. and Iran following tanker attacks in early July, analyzing how oil prices function as an independent variable driving conflict cycles rather than a dependent variable to be forecast. They debate whether current hostilities represent a brief tit-for-tat negotiation or the start of a sustained second war, with one forecasting de-escalation around $100-120 oil prices and the other expressing concern about uncontrolled spiraling given depleted U.S. strategic reserves.

This Geopolitical Cousins podcast episode discusses Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, NATO developments and Trump's foreign policy, and extensive World Cup analysis with geopolitical implications. The hosts argue that oil prices drive both sides' behavior more than ideology, and that the World Cup serves as a healthy outlet for nationalism and competition between nation-states.

The hosts discuss America's paradoxical strength demonstrated through the World Cup and Buc-ee's culture, contrasting optimistic grassroots enthusiasm with elite political dysfunction, before pivoting to Russia's deteriorating position in Ukraine as Zelensky's drone strategy shifts the war to Russian territory, exposing structural vulnerabilities in Putin's economy and military.

In this in-person Geopolitical Cousins episode recorded June 15, 2026, the hosts discuss three major topics: AI's challenge to state sovereignty with the Anthropic-US government conflict, the Iran conflict endgame and its geopolitical implications, and brief takes on the NBA Finals and World Cup. They argue that AI will decentralize power away from traditional nation-states, that the Middle East conflict reveals the US lacks strategic resolve, and that China emerges as the reputational winner by appearing as the responsible global actor.

BCA Research analysts Robert Tipper and Juan Correa join Marco Popic and Jacob to discuss their 2026 World Cup forecast model, which predicts France as the tournament winner. The conversation covers the methodology behind their quantitative model, formative World Cup memories, and broader geopolitical dimensions of international football.

Two geopolitical analysts discuss the Iran-US ceasefire situation and oil market dynamics, the disconnect between geopolitical risk and record-high equity markets, and the role of AI in driving economic growth. They also touch on USMCA negotiations, space race developments, and close with NBA playoff predictions.

Two geopolitical analysts discuss the Iran-US ceasefire negotiations and potential deal, the Ebola outbreak in the DRC, Gen Z protests in Serbia and Turkey, and close with NBA commentary. Recorded May 26, they argue a deal with Iran is imminent despite being worse than the JCPOA, and that Gen Z's internet connectivity is fundamentally reshaping political organizing and nationalism.

The podcast discusses the Trade Value Global Leaders 2026 Index, analyzing various global leaders' current standings and potential impact, focusing on their performance, capabilities, and challenges. Notable discussions include leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu and Xi Jinping, with significant agreements on the rankings of emerging leaders in global politics.

Two analysts, Jacob and Marco, discuss their 'Trade Value Global Leaders 2026 Index' rankings for positions 15 through 6, evaluating world leaders based on geopolitical savvy, economic performance, and degree of difficulty. They debate figures including Lula, Macron, Xi Jinping, Claudia Sheinbaum, and Narendra Modi using sports analogies throughout. The conversation blends geopolitical analysis with humor, personal biases, and frank assessments of each leader's strengths and failures.

Marco and Jacob record Part 1 of their annual 'Trade Value Global Leaders 2026 Index,' a geopolitical ranking inspired by Bill Simmons' NBA trade value concept. They review their 2025 picks, acknowledge hits and misses, and begin revealing their 2026 rankings from positions 30 down to roughly 15, applying NBA player analogies throughout. The episode blends serious geopolitical analysis with irreverent sports-media-style commentary.

Two geopolitical analysts discuss Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, the Iran conflict's impact on global shipping, US-Mexico relations, Cuba protests, and AOC's political positioning. They debate whether the US-China détente is meaningful or just 'soybean diplomacy,' and explore the structural forces that may prevent lasting improvement in bilateral relations.

Hosts Jacob Shapiro and Marco discuss China's response to US sanctions on Iranian oil refiners, the broader US-China relationship heading into a May summit, and Iran's attack on UAE energy infrastructure during the recording. They debate whether China is strategically patient or missing a key opportunity to demonstrate global leadership during the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Jacob and Marco record a late-night 'Cousins After Dark' episode covering the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, including Iran's oil storage problems, rising crude prices, and the ceasefire they characterize as a Cold War stalemate. They also discuss the UAE leaving OPEC, a steep drop in Putin's approval ratings, Canada's proposed sovereign wealth fund, and a US-China deal they expect to materialize soon.

Energy analyst Rory Johnston joins Geopolitical Cousins to break down the oil market implications of the Strait of Hormuz closure, explaining why roughly 13 million barrels per day remain shut in despite successful partial reroutes. He walks through the accumulating supply deficit, strategic reserve drawdowns, and why oil markets have remained relatively calm despite what he views as an escalating crisis. The conversation covers price forecasts, Iran's strategic leverage, the role of Russia and Ukraine, and the conditions under which Trump might concede.

Two geopolitical analysts discuss China's energy vulnerabilities (or lack thereof) amid U.S. military actions against Iran and Venezuela, arguing that oil's fungibility means China cannot be meaningfully cut off from crude supplies. They also examine the Trump administration's chaotic governing style, the U.S.-China strategic competition, and rising Japan-China tensions.

The hosts of Geopolitical Cousins discuss the apparent de-escalation of a US-Iran-Israel conflict, analyzing a fragile ceasefire, contested diplomatic statements on X/Twitter, and the likelihood of a 'vacuous' nuclear deal. They also cover Viktor Orban's electoral defeat in Hungary and the broader trend of politics becoming celebrity entertainment, exemplified by TMZ opening a Washington DC bureau.

Two geopolitical analysts discuss the recent Iran-Israel ceasefire, debating its durability and implications for global oil markets. They also examine Taiwan's political shifts, German renewable energy developments, and US political vulnerabilities.