Cousins After Dark
Jacob and Marco record a late-night 'Cousins After Dark' episode covering the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, including Iran's oil storage problems, rising crude prices, and the ceasefire they characterize as a Cold War stalemate. They also discuss the UAE leaving OPEC, a steep drop in Putin's approval ratings, Canada's proposed sovereign wealth fund, and a US-China deal they expect to materialize soon.
Summary
Jacob and Marco open the episode with casual banter about recording late at night from New Orleans and Montreal respectively, making comparisons to the Bill Simmons and Ryan Russillo podcasting dynamic before pivoting to substantive geopolitical content.
The bulk of the episode focuses on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Iran's situation. Jacob recounts that Trump posted on Truth Social claiming Iran told the US they were in a state of collapse and wanted the strait opened. He notes that the UAE has left OPEC, is calling in a $3.5 billion loan from Pakistan, and that a New York Times report suggested the Trump administration believes two more months of blockade pressure will force Iranian concessions. Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly claimed Iranian oil production would collapse soon, which Jacob compares to incorrect predictions about Russian oil production after the Ukraine invasion. Both hosts note Brent crude is trading around $105-$106 per barrel, US gas prices are at $4.17 on average — the highest in five years — and that airlines are cutting thousands of flights.
Marco characterizes the ceasefire as actually a Cold War between two nuclear-armed powers, arguing that on March 30th both sides demonstrated they could cause catastrophic damage — Israel hit South Pars and Iran struck Qatari LNG — and both stepped back. He frames Iran's ability to take out 30% of global LNG, which would shut down Taiwanese semiconductor plants, as functionally equivalent to a nuclear deterrent. He argues both sides are now trying to manufacture enough narrative distance to declare the eventual draw a victory. Jacob pushes back, suggesting the Trump administration believes each new pressure point is a silver bullet that will make Iran capitulate, citing his rereading of Daniel Yergin's 'The Prize' and the historical precedent of Iran being willing to let oil exports go to zero under Mossadegh rather than concede to British control. Marco counters that while America will bear long-term blame for starting this conflict, Iran will face short-term pressure from the Global South — including China, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh — whose populations face food price crises and who will pressure Iran to reopen the strait regardless of who started the conflict.
On the UAE leaving OPEC, Jacob expresses concern that the UAE is picking fights with Saudi Arabia and calling in debts from Pakistan at precisely the moment Gulf Arab states need alignment. Marco notes the UAE has been cheating on its production quotas for years and the departure mostly formalizes that, with the UAE's Fujairah bypass pipeline limiting them to 1.8 million barrels per day anyway. Both discuss OPEC's declining share of global production, now around 35-38%, and the structural difficulty of American producers with $50-70 per barrel production costs competing with Saudi Arabia's $2-8 per barrel cost.
On Russia and Ukraine, Jacob highlights a steep 12.2-point drop in Putin's state-run polling approval since January, falling to 65.6%, which he finds notable even accounting for the unreliability of Russian polling. Marco argues that historically, dips in Putin's popularity have preceded Russian military pivots to export domestic instability, citing the 2014-2015 shift from Ukraine to Syria. He notes that if you want world peace, you want Putin to feel secure, not cornered.
The hosts briefly address a US State Department joint statement with Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago supporting Panama's sovereignty against Chinese economic pressure, which Jacob flags as potentially significant timing given ongoing US-China deal negotiations. Both expect a US-China trade deal to materialize soon and consider it potentially the most important development in resolving the Hormuz situation, since a functional US-China relationship makes it harder to imagine the strait remaining closed.
Finally, Jacob discusses Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's announcement of a sovereign wealth fund to reduce Canada's economic dependence on the United States, delivered at a science museum in Ottawa. He expresses genuine optimism about Carney's ability to execute on this, citing his financial credentials. Marco notes the practical challenge of where the money comes from given Canada lacks budget surpluses, but acknowledges Carney's credibility. A comedic Trump impression segment briefly interrupts the analysis before they close with NBA playoff commentary about CJ McCollum, Julius Randle, and Nikola Jokic.
Key Insights
- Jacob argues the Trump administration appears to believe each new pressure point — oil storage limits, well shut-ins, sanctions — is a silver bullet that will force Iran to capitulate, a logic he finds historically ignorant given Iran's willingness under Mossadegh to let oil exports go to zero rather than concede to British control.
- Marco frames the current ceasefire not as a peace deal but as a Cold War between two de facto nuclear powers, arguing that Iran's ability to destroy 30% of global LNG constitutes a strategic deterrent equivalent to nuclear weapons.
- Jacob notes that Brent crude is trading around $105-$106 per barrel and US gas prices have hit $4.17 on average — the highest in five years — with both hosts expecting prices to continue rising.
- Marco argues that while the United States will bear long-term historical blame for starting the conflict, Iran will face short-term pressure from the Global South — China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh — whose populations face food shortages and who will tell Iran to reopen the strait regardless of who is morally right.
- Jacob observes that Trump's approval rating has dropped to 34%, and that Trump is walking into the same political trap that hurt Biden in 2022, with oil prices rising heading into midterm elections entirely by his own choice.
- Marco contends that the long-term structural consequence of this crisis is the shattering of the implicit quid pro quo between the US and its allies — where holding US treasuries functionally bought you US Navy protection of sea lanes — leading countries to turn to China for energy security via solar, EVs, and battery technology.
- The hosts note that 70 Chinese vessels remain stuck in the Persian Gulf, and that Chinese financial professionals confirm China is not content with the situation and is pressuring Iran behind the scenes to reopen the strait.
- Marco argues that Saudi Arabia strategically keeps oil prices between $50 and $70 to avoid incentivizing a dramatic shift to renewables or spurring expensive offshore exploration, while retaining the ability to crush higher-cost American and Canadian producers by temporarily dropping prices to $20-$30.
- Jacob highlights a 12.2-point drop in Vladimir Putin's state-run polling approval since January — the steepest decline since 2022 — and raises the question of whether this represents a genuine crack in the facade of strength or a breadcrumb signal from oligarchs that patience is running out.
- Marco draws a historical parallel to Russia's 2014-2015 pivot from Ukraine to Syria, arguing that dips in Putin's domestic popularity have historically preceded military pivots to export instability, and expresses concern that this dynamic could repeat.
- Jacob expresses genuine confidence in Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's sovereign wealth fund announcement, arguing Carney is uniquely credentialed to execute on it, while Marco raises the practical concern that Canada lacks the budget surpluses typically used to seed such funds.
- Marco argues the current geopolitical moment in the Strait of Hormuz is a classic prisoner's dilemma draw, and that all of the Trump administration's public messaging — claiming Iran is collapsing, that wells will explode — is primarily designed to construct a narrative that allows the US to lift the blockade and declare victory without appearing to concede.
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