TVI26: Jinping Rising
Two analysts, Jacob and Marco, discuss their 'Trade Value Global Leaders 2026 Index' rankings for positions 15 through 6, evaluating world leaders based on geopolitical savvy, economic performance, and degree of difficulty. They debate figures including Lula, Macron, Xi Jinping, Claudia Sheinbaum, and Narendra Modi using sports analogies throughout. The conversation blends geopolitical analysis with humor, personal biases, and frank assessments of each leader's strengths and failures.
Summary
This is part two of a podcast series where Jacob and Marco rank global leaders for their 'Trade Value Global Leaders 2026 Index.' They begin by correcting a prior error about Morocco's King Mohammed VI (not IV) before diving into rankings from 15 to 6.
Jacob places Lula of Brazil at 15, arguing that while he has many flaws including corruption scandals and leftist excesses, he has positioned Brazil well for a multipolar world. Marco agrees but suggests Lula benefits from a low degree of difficulty given Brazil's natural advantages, comparing him to a veteran player coasting on reputation. Both agree Brazil's lack of a clear successor weakens Lula's legacy.
Jacob ranks Macron at 14, praising his strategic thinking and ability to build a centrist party from scratch, calling him the 'Christian Laettner' or 'Brandon Roy' of politics — full of early promise but ultimately underdelivering. Marco had Macron as his first honorable mention and places him around 31st, citing failures to improve France's productivity, budget deficits, and the ongoing threat from Marine Le Pen.
Daniel Noboa of Ecuador comes in at 13 for Jacob, praised as a self-aware, softer version of Bukele fighting cartel expansion with a high degree of difficulty. Marco is somewhat skeptical given Noboa's short tenure and relatively low profile.
Both hosts agree enthusiastically on Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan, with Jacob placing him at 12 and Marco at 9. They highlight his decade of market-oriented reforms — privatization, trade liberalization, foreign business access — calling him a 'throwback' leader pursuing 1990s-style neoliberalism at a time when the rest of the world has abandoned it. Uzbekistan's economy significantly outperformed IMF growth expectations, and the country is positioned at the center of the emerging Eurasian middle corridor.
Jacob places South Korea's new leader Lee Ji-young at 11, noting he 'stormed the barricades' to reach power at a young age. Japan's new leader Takeichi comes in at 10 for Jacob, described as a woman who has broken through a deeply male-dominated political system with a broader mandate than her predecessor Ishiba, aggressive plans on constitutional change, Taiwan, and defense exports. Marco reserves judgment on Japanese leaders generally.
Marco's list includes Mette Frederiksen of Denmark at 15, praised for navigating Trump's Greenland threats and reportedly setting diplomatic traps for the U.S. He places King Abdullah II of Jordan at 12, noting that Jordan 'shouldn't exist on paper' given its lack of natural resources and complex geopolitical position, yet continues to function effectively. Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia comes in at 11, with the country benefiting from transshipment trade, chip processing investment, and strong economic growth.
Xi Jinping is ranked number 2 by Marco and discussed at length. Both hosts agree he has had an 'MVP season' that few are acknowledging — China's exports are surging, its electricity and EV production has skyrocketed, and it has expanded South China Sea military installations. Jacob compares him to 'Jalen Brown of geopolitics,' while Marco prefers Allen Iverson — supremely talented but not a team player, with no succession plan. Both credit him for correcting mistakes like zero-COVID and Wolf Warrior diplomacy, though they note the legacy debt from China's credit and leverage excesses.
Javier Milei is retained on Marco's list despite the crypto scandal and economic contraction, praised for actually implementing labor reforms in his first term — something Marco didn't expect until a second term. Jacob dropped Milei entirely over the crypto pump-and-dump scandal, calling it a betrayal of ideological consistency.
Jacob's rankings from 9 to 6 include Bernardo Arévalo of Guatemala (9) as an anti-corruption crusader trying to reform without authoritarian methods; Lawrence Wong of Singapore (8) as the perfectly-bred technocratic 'boring' pick delivering consistent results; Giorgia Meloni of Italy (7), still holding despite referendum missteps and complications from Trump's foreign policy pivot; and Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico (6 for Jacob, 2 for Marco), praised for masterfully managing the Trump relationship, achieving high approval ratings, declining homicide rates, and strong economic growth. Both hosts agree Mexico and Canada were the real winners of the trade war, gaining preferred access to the U.S. market over global competitors.
Jacob closes his segment with Narendra Modi at 5, crediting him for adeptly navigating a multipolar world — pivoting toward China and Russia after being 'left at the altar' by Trump's second term — and showing early signs of infrastructure improvement. Marco had Modi at 3, and both acknowledge they hesitate to rank him highly because it feels like an 'obvious' rather than 'expert' pick, despite him clearly deserving a top-five position.
About this episode
<p>2026 Trade Values P2 :)</p><p>--</p><p><strong><u>Timestamps:</u></strong></p><p>(00:00) - Welcome</p><p>(00:42) - Part Two Setup</p><p>(02:31) - Lula at Fifteen</p><p>(05:17) - Macron Debate</p><p>(09:57) - Noboa and Ecuador Crime</p><p>(11:47) - Uzbekistan Rising</p><p>(13:28) - Uzbek Reforms Deep Dive</p><p>(17:28) - Japan New Prime Pick</p><p>(21:46) - Denmark and Greenland Standoff</p><p>(24:03) - List Mixup and Denmark</p><p>(25:17) - Xi Jinping Rising</p><p>(26:53) - Xi Strengths and Risks</p><p>(31:28) - Javier Milei Debate</p><p>(34:08) - Rapid Fire Picks</p><p>(37:42) - Top 10 Countdown</p><p>(38:01) - Guatemala and Singapore</p><p>(39:25) - Meloni and Sheinbaum</p><p>(44:11) - Modi in Top Five</p><p>(47:59) - Wrap and Next Part</p><p>--</p><p><strong><u>Referenced in the Show:</u></strong></p><p></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Geopolitical Cousins</strong> is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at <a href="https://audiographies.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">audiographies.com</a></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro</strong> is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.</p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro Site:</strong> <a href="https://jacobshapiro.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">jacobshapiro.com</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: </strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Twitter:</strong> <a href="https://x.com/JacobShap" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">x.com/JacobShap</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro Substack: </strong><a href="https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">jashap.substack.com/subscribe </a></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Marko Papic</strong> is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.</p><p><strong>Marko’s Book & Newsletter:</strong> <a href="https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic </a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Linkedin:</strong> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/</a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Twitter:</strong> <a href="https://x.com/Geo_papic" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://x.com/Geo_papic</a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:</strong> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro</a></p>
Key Insights
- Jacob argues that Lula's greatest achievement may simply be 'not screwing it up,' suggesting Brazil's success owes more to structural advantages than to Lula's leadership, while his lack of a credible successor weakens his legacy.
- Marco contends that Xi Jinping has demonstrated a genuine capacity to correct mistakes — reversing zero-COVID policy, pulling back Wolf Warrior diplomats, and reining in tech crackdowns — arguing this reaction function, though slow, distinguishes him from most authoritarian leaders.
- Both hosts argue that Mexico and Canada were the real winners of Trump's trade war, not because they beat the U.S., but because they secured preferred access to the largest market in the world ahead of all other global competitors.
- Marco argues that Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan is exceptional precisely because he is pursuing 1990s-style economic liberalization — privatizing state enterprises, liberalizing trade, reducing barriers to foreign business — at a moment when most of the world has abandoned those policies.
- Jacob argues that Sansan Takeichi of Japan is a historically significant pick simply for rising to lead one of the world's most male-dominated political environments, and that her aggressive agenda on constitutional change, Taiwan, and defense exports represents a genuine break from Japan's postwar political timidity.
- Marco argues that China's diplomatic success under Xi Jinping is partly defined by contrast: while China expands military installations in the South China Sea and crushes European car manufacturers, it is the United States that has become the 'rogue state in the eyes of the entire planet' due to its own foreign policy chaos.
- Jacob claims that Claudia Sheinbaum's strategy toward Trump has been to offer unconditional compliance — matching U.S. tariff demands on Chinese goods, flooding the border with Mexican security officials — effectively defusing trade war pressure by refusing to fight it.
- Marco argues that Jordan under King Abdullah II is one of the most impressive governance achievements in the world, noting that a country with no oil, a 70-75% Palestinian population, and repeated Iranian attacks 'shouldn't exist on paper' yet continues to function effectively through diplomatic ingenuity.
Topics
Transcript
Hello listeners, welcome to part of the Trade Value Global Leaders 2026 Index. Write to me at jacob at jacobspear.com if you want me and Marco to see what you have to say. Otherwise, take care of the people you love. Don't take our comments on these leaders too seriously, especially the leaders of your country. Remember, ultimately, we are trying to talk about geopolitics, but also to be entertaining while doing so. Cheers and see you around. Right, kick us off cousin. We're both wearing button-down white shirts. You look nice. You look nice too. You look very nice. Alright, so we are doing the second part. Of course, you've enjoyed the first part for an hour and a…
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