The Serfs Will Have Drones
In this in-person Geopolitical Cousins episode recorded June 15, 2026, the hosts discuss three major topics: AI's challenge to state sovereignty with the Anthropic-US government conflict, the Iran conflict endgame and its geopolitical implications, and brief takes on the NBA Finals and World Cup. They argue that AI will decentralize power away from traditional nation-states, that the Middle East conflict reveals the US lacks strategic resolve, and that China emerges as the reputational winner by appearing as the responsible global actor.
Summary
The episode opens with context-setting about recent geopolitical events, including a peace deal with Iran, a gladiatorial match at the White House, and recording on the Emperor's (Trump's) birthday, establishing a tone of dark satire about American decline and spectacle.
The primary discussion centers on AI as an existential challenge to state power. The hosts analyze the conflict between Anthropic and the US government over access to the Mythos and Fable AI models. Anthropic, which had advocated for US regulation of AI to compete with China, now faces export controls preventing foreign nationals from using these models. The conversation explores how AI enables scaling without human labor, fundamentally undermining the nation-state system that required mass education and ideological control of populations. They discuss how democracies, with their tolerance for pluralism and "messiness," may be better positioned than authoritarian states like China to weather AI-driven disruption, though China's tight control could temporarily suppress innovation. The hosts debate whether states will ultimately control AI companies or vice versa, with one arguing that proliferation of capable open-source models will make state control impossible within five years.
On universities, the hosts note that institutions like Syracuse are struggling with international enrollment due to geopolitical pressures, while universities diverge sharply on AI policy (Berkeley banning it, University of Chicago embracing it). They argue universities must retool toward industry needs or face consolidation, that AI will devalue credentialing for routine cognitive work while elevating creativity and emotional intelligence, and that the model of universal college attendance may revert to more elitist patterns.
Regarding the Iran conflict, the hosts establish that this is an "endgame" but not necessarily the end. They identify several concrete facts: the US demonstrated it won't see extended Middle East conflicts through, Iran and the US both proved unwilling to permanently close the Strait of Hormuz (disproving earlier catastrophic scenarios), and regional allies like Saudi Arabia and UAE now recognize they cannot rely on the US and must pursue independent relationships. The hosts debate whether the Strait's closure was avoided due to oil becoming less critical to the global economy (fewer oil-intensive GDP impacts than in the 1970s) or due to strategic petroleum reserve management.
On China's position, Jacob argues China is the clear winner: it reduced oil imports preemptively, avoiding blame for economic damage, and can present itself as the "responsible stakeholder" ensuring commodity stability—a mandate of heaven concept in Chinese statecraft. Matt counters that China's reputation gains are relative (only because the US looks worse) and that China faces the same growth-driven commodity price pressures it always has, which will eventually provoke backlash from developing countries. They note Pakistan mediated the deal and discuss how China's model of providing infrastructure (railroads, pipelines) to the Global South differs from Western expectations of reserve currency dominance.
On the United States, the hosts argue it emerges as a draw or net-neutral: the war barely affected Americans (gasoline prices up slightly), demonstrating US power remains unmatched but also that the Middle East no longer matters strategically. Trump's decision not to escalate further, while a mistake in execution, shows good judgment in avoiding the Vietnam-style doubling down on failed strategy that plagued earlier administrations. They note the US lacks strategic planning (failing to rebuild strategic petroleum reserves before invading Iran) and that both Trump and Obama deserve credit for not escalating conflicts despite rhetorical commitment.
The Middle East itself faces a structural shift: oil's declining importance (the Strait can close for months without economic collapse) means these countries have a shrinking strategic asset. However, they become winners if forced regional cooperation replaces US-mediated stability, forcing Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Emirates to work out their differences directly. The hosts emphasize that countries must now "look out for themselves" rather than rely on great power guarantees.
The final section covers sports as a proxy for geopolitical themes. The Knicks' NBA championship victory over the more talented Spurs illustrates how cohesion, experience, and understanding of fundamentals (rebounding, ball movement) can overcome raw talent. They draw a parallel to Ukraine defeating Russia through innovative tactics (drones) and suggest the US errs by attempting dramatic plays (bombing campaigns) rather than focusing on foundational strengths. The World Cup discussion suggests that cohesive teams outperform talent-heavy ones, implying the US might perform better than expected.
Throughout, the hosts return to the theme that technology (AI, drones) is decentralizing power from nation-states and that messy, pluralistic Western democracies may be structurally better suited to adapt to this disruption than ideologically rigid authoritarian systems, even as both face unprecedented challenges.
About this episode
<p><strong>Cousins</strong> hits the road for its first-ever in-person episode, recorded at Matt Gertken's home in Taos, New Mexico! Jacob, Marko, and Matt dig into the brewing standoff between Anthropic and the US government over export controls on its <em>Mythos </em>AI model, then zoom out to ask whether AI marks a civilizational rupture on par with industrialization itself - pitting the state, corporations, and "free-for-all" chaos against each other for control. They pivot to the Iran-Israel-US "hate triangle," the Strait of Hormuz, and what a fragile peace means for Gulf states and China. They close out with hot takes on the Knicks' title run and the World Cup.</p><p>--</p><p><strong><u>Timestamps:</u></strong></p><p>(00:00) - Welcome to Taos IRL</p><p>(01:30) - House History and Taos Lore</p><p>(02:25) - War Returns and Pivot Myth</p><p>(03:15) - Anthropic vs US Crackdown</p><p>(06:57) - AI as New Means of Production</p><p>(10:44) - Kids Screens and Ideology</p><p>(13:39) - Can States Control AI</p><p>(16:35) - Dystopias State vs Corp</p><p>(23:20) - Western Messiness vs Rule of Law</p><p>(30:51) - Tech Barons and Backlash Politics</p><p>(33:45) - Data Centers and Populist Response</p><p>(35:37) - Bull Moose Antitrust Populism</p><p>(37:10) - China Infrastructure Social Fabric</p><p>(38:29) - Boom Bust Capex Cycles</p><p>(41:23) - Universities Under Pressure</p><p>(43:12) - How Campuses Handle AI</p><p>(46:32) - Elitism Versus Access</p><p>(50:19) - Iran Endgame Framework</p><p>(51:27) - Hormuz Kinetic Equilibrium</p><p>(56:34) - US Resolve And Deterrence</p><p>(59:13) - Who Wins Middle East</p><p>(01:07:54) - China As Stabilizer</p><p>(01:09:59) - China Bonds And Stagnation</p><p>(01:10:58) - No Rival No Resolve</p><p>(01:12:40) - Oil Reserves And Populism</p><p>(01:15:32) - China The Adult Debate</p><p>(01:16:36) - Empire Model And Global South</p><p>(01:21:11) -Will Power Corrupt China</p><p>(01:23:36) - NBA Finals And Ticket Madness</p><p>(01:27:09) - AI Makes Live Sports Pricier</p><p>(01:29:53) - Basketball As Geopolitics</p><p>(01:34:01) - World Cup Cohesion Forecast</p><p>--</p><p><strong><u>Referenced in the Show:</u></strong></p><p></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Geopolitical Cousins</strong> is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at <a href="https://audiographies.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">audiographies.com</a></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro</strong> is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.</p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro Site:</strong> <a href="https://jacobshapiro.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">jacobshapiro.com</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: </strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Twitter:</strong> <a href="https://x.com/JacobShap" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">x.com/JacobShap</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro Substack: </strong><a href="https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">jashap.substack.com/subscribe </a></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Marko Papic</strong> is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.</p><p><strong>Marko’s Book & Newsletter:</strong> <a href="https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic </a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Linkedin:</strong> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/</a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Twitter:</strong> <a href="https://x.com/Geo_papic" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://x.com/Geo_papic</a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:</strong> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro</a></p>
Key Insights
- AI enables scaling without human labor, which fundamentally undermines the nation-state model that historically required mass population education and ideological control to function.
- Democracies' structural tolerance for pluralism and institutional messiness may make them more resilient to AI-driven disruption than authoritarian states that require ideological conformity.
- The US government's export controls on Anthropic AI models represent an ironic moment where a company that advocated for more US regulation now faces that regulation directly.
- Within five years, the proliferation of open-source AI models good enough for most purposes will make it impossible for states to maintain monopolistic control over advanced AI capabilities.
- The Iran conflict proves definitively that both the US and Iran are unwilling to permanently close the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting earlier catastrophic economic predictions about such a scenario.
- Oil's reduced importance to global GDP (compared to the 1970s) means the Middle East's strategic value has structurally declined, making permanent Strait closures economically survivable.
- China emerges as the reputational winner of the Iran conflict not through any positive action but because the US appeared more chaotic and unreliable, allowing China to claim the role of 'responsible stakeholder.'
- Regional allies like Saudi Arabia and UAE have definitively learned they cannot rely on US commitment and must now pursue independent relationships and diversify security partnerships.
- Universities face forced consolidation and specialization because the product-market fit between what institutions produce and what labor markets need has broken down.
- The US demonstrated strategic incompetence by invading Iran without first rebuilding depleted strategic petroleum reserves, showing ideology rather than planning drives current policy.
- Trump's decision to exit the Iran conflict without escalation, while strategically flawed in execution, represents admirable avoidance of the Vietnam-style doubling down on failed policy that plagued previous administrations.
- Cohesive teams with experience and fundamental discipline can triumph over more talented but less unified competitors, a principle applicable to both sports and military/geopolitical competition.
Topics
Transcript
Hello and welcome to another episode of Geopolitical Cousins. I am your producer, Jacob. Today's episode is brought to you by that one Walmart in Taos, New Mexico that made the recording of this possible. This is our first ever IRL, everybody sitting in the same room, episode. It features our extra cousin Matt Gerken and myself, although obviously I don't say s***. And it presages a ton of content in the pipeline, including a very fun, dark, interesting few episodes with Peter Zaihan. That's all I got. Enjoy the episode. This is our first in-person recorded Geopolitical Cousins episode. We are in Taos, New Mexico at Matt Gerken's lovely home. He's offering us this also for posterity's sake you…
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