Which Young QBs Should You Buy?
A sports cards podcast discussion covering NFL quarterbacks' week one performances, PSA grading updates, vintage card markets, and voicemail segments. The hosts analyze market reactions to young QBs like Drake May, discuss PSA's new $60 standard grading tier and 39% production increase, and field listener questions about collecting strategies and grading company competition.
Summary
The episode opens with sponsorship mentions for eBay Live and Hilton before transitioning to NFL analysis. The hosts extensively discuss Drake May's poor week one performance (three interceptions in the fourth quarter), noting the hobby will overreact negatively despite his talent level. They compare this to Josh Allen's situation, arguing Allen's established resume means less dramatic value swings. The discussion covers multiple NFL matchups including San Francisco at LA in Australia, Jets at Tennessee, Lamar and Derrick Henry at Indy, Chicago at Carolina, and Buffalo at Houston, analyzing how game outcomes will impact card values.
A major segment focuses on PSA's announcement of increased production (39% year-over-year) and a new standard grading tier at $59.99 with 90-100 day turnaround, replacing the previous regular tier's $79 pricing. The hosts view this as a positive step but note the real hope is for a lower-priced bulk tier to return. They discuss Funko's perspective on grading industry challenges and the likelihood of PSA introducing special promotions rather than permanently opening a value tier.
The transcript includes detailed market analysis comparing vintage Opeche baseball cards to Topps equivalents, showing significant premiums for scarce Canadian versions (George Brett 1975 Opeche PSA 5 selling for $635 vs Topps PSA 5 at $175). The hosts explain Opeche's existence due to distribution rights in Canada.
Boomer's voicemail raises concerns about modern product saturation creating a 'junk wax era 2.0,' arguing the abundance of product lines, variations, and parallel sets prices out casual collectors. The hosts counter that modern graded parallels have more lasting value than 1990s base cards, and that today's collectors are more intentional than pack-buyers of the '90s.
CGC/CSG grading company performance is discussed in context of Fanatics integration, with the hosts noting that while volume may be increasing, resale perception and value haven't dramatically shifted. They suggest Fanatics would need to make official backing announcements to meaningfully boost CGC adoption.
Other topics include the new MLS trading card product with Messi-Beckham dual autographs, Haystack's new eBay and Shopify integration, Steve Sloan's upcoming appearance, Columbia Hobby's return as a supplier, Jackson Dart's $204,000 Prism Black card sale, and various caller questions about vintage cards, grading strategies, and market conditions. The episode concludes with an extended voicemail from 'Larry,' a regular caller, expressing frustration about not hearing back regarding an invitation to visit the studio, resulting in the hosts placing him on their 'Rushmore' of callers and formally inviting him to stay at their Nashville location.
About this episode
The NFL is back, and Drake Maye got off to an awful start. Looking at Maye's market and what other young quarterbacks will need to do to see positive movement in the card market this year. PSA released good news yesterday by opening a new grading tier. Plus, a new center in Europe will help lower the backlog. Wrapping up with voicemails on vintage cards, expensive wax, and Larry Legend's return. 0:00 - Intro 2:00 - Drake Maye struggled 9:00 - Looking at quarterbacks around the league 16:00 - PSA updates tier names, creates a new tier, and updates turnaround times 30:00 - Voicemails 44:00 - Looking at vintage cards 1:00:00 - Wax is too expensive Follow Sports Cards Nonsense: https://www.tiktok.com/@sportscardsnonsense https://www.instagram.com/sports_cards_nonsense/ https://x.com/SCN_Pod https://www.facebook.com/groups/sportscardsnonsense https://collectibleslife.beehiiv.com/subscribe Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Key Insights
- Drake May's poor week one performance will require multiple games of recovery before his card market rebounds, unlike established veterans, because hobby perception shifts based on current performance narratives.
- PSA's new $59.99 standard tier is a $20 price reduction from the previous $79 regular tier, not a new tier addition, contrary to marketing messaging.
- Production at PSA increased 39% year-over-year, suggesting the company is ramping capacity, though the real test will be whether a lower bulk tier opens once backlogs decrease further.
- Opeche vintage baseball cards command 2-4x premiums over equivalent Topps cards due to scarcity from Canadian-only distribution agreements, making centering and condition highly valuable in low-grade vintage.
- Modern product saturation with numerous parallel versions, variations, and product lines prices out casual collectors differently than 1990s junk wax because today's numbered parallels retain more long-term value than base card common inventory.
- CGC/CSG volume growth exists but resale perception remains weak in the hobby, and an official Fanatics ownership announcement would be needed to meaningfully shift collector values and adoption rates.
- Card centering is the single most important value factor in vintage cards, more important than corners or edges, because it's immediately visible in a holder.
- PSA 9 graded cards now sell equal to or slightly above raw cards for modern products due to slabs providing authentication and known grades, reversing previous market dynamics where 9s underperformed raw.
- Ripping wax boxes with expected ROI is financially worse than buying singles or retail packs when card values are priced assuming every box contains premium hits.
- The hosts receive shared email inquiries that get missed across multiple team members, as evidenced by Larry's invitation being lost despite original acceptance and Airbnb offer.
- Grading companies across PSA, Beckett, and SGC simultaneously closed their lowest tiers and increased pricing, indicating industry-wide capacity constraints rather than competitive positioning.
- Collecting for PC (personal collection) versus ROI fundamentally changes card buying strategy, with graded 8s becoming viable for collectors who want slabbed authenticity without paying 9 premiums.
Topics
Transcript
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