The Art of the Sale
The hosts discuss timing strategies for selling collectible cards, analyzing market conditions for various sports and non-sports products, and take numerous listener voicemails about collecting strategies, grading decisions, and market trends. They also address personal updates including Papa Geo's health improvement and upcoming visits from athletes like Justin Steele.
Summary
The episode opens with discussion about the optimal timing for selling cards, with Mike and Jesse debating whether to hold cards experiencing price increases or take profits while markets are hot. Mike shares an example of Drake May cards he pulled from an eBay Live show that accidentally sold on the secondary market for decent prices despite the player's poor performance. The hosts explore the psychology of holding versus selling, noting that personal attachment, opportunity cost, and reinvestment potential all factor into these decisions. Jesse discusses his approach of taking wins and reinvesting in other underperforming cards within categories he believes in, like Jordan basketball cards. They reference the beginning-of-show framework for determining 'wins' as being gutfeel-based rather than formula-driven. The conversation shifts to Topps Definitive Basketball, highlighting the shocking $49,999 price point for hobby boxes that has settled to $44,999, representing unprecedented pricing for a hobby SKU. They discuss Fanatics' restrictions on case flipping to control secondary market inflation, contrasting this with how distributors can still create pricing issues through multiple markup layers. The hosts call Justin Steele, a Cubs pitcher, for a live interview where he discusses his rehab progress, interest in Disney card products (specifically Nemo autographs), and confirms plans to visit Nashville in January. Justin briefly becomes the preferred athlete guest over Leonard Fournette by the hosts' assessment. The episode features extensive voicemail segments covering topics including WNBA relic cards and licensing, methods for determining card values, PSA grading cost thresholds (minimum $150 raw value recommended), SGC versus PSA debates for vintage cards, the SCN price tracking challenge (Doug leading, followed closely by the hosts), fictional sports character cards from movies, and analysis of Cooper Flagg rookie autographs versus LeBron James. Notably, a caller discusses using Polymarket and Kalshi betting platforms to track card value predictions, raising concerns that such predictive markets could become self-fulfilling prophecies affecting actual card prices. Multiple callers address the shifting collector mentality post-pandemic, suggesting newer hobbyists focus more on flipping than true collecting. The hosts discuss Larry, an out-of-state listener, and his requests for specific cards, including non-alcoholic beer preference and interest in Caitlin Clark/SGA cards. Papa Geo's recent health issue (a heating pad burn) is resolved, and the hosts discuss maintaining the studio's air conditioning at 69 degrees during recordings. The episode concludes with important personal news: Jason Shep from Shep's Cards and Collectibles lost his wife to cancer after a 27-year marriage, and the hosts encourage listeners to support him through the difficult time with the service scheduled for Saturday in Gallatin.
About this episode
Mike and Jesse are back with Papa Gio, discussing the ideal time to sell in certain markets and whether you can even time them. Plus, looking at NFL markets after Week 1 and who is worth buying/selling right now. Breaking down Week 1 of the SCN Challenge. The most expensive Topps product yet. Wrapping up talking with Justin Steele of the Cubs and hitting voicemails. 0:00 - Intro + health scares 7:45 - When do you sell? What is the correct time to do it? 19:25 - Looking at how Shough, Lawrence, and Caleb Williams are up big. 24:30 - SCN Challenge Update 30:00 - Fanatics is opening a second Flagship store in Paris 37:00 - Topps Definitive coming out at nearly 40k per case 39:30 - Checking in with Justin Steele 46:45 - Steele is back on top, and PCA is falling down the ladder of favorite show-adjacent athletes 1:00:00 - Best practices for listings on eBay 1:05:00 - Could Fanatics start making sports movie card sets? 1:13:55 - There are so many Cooper Flagg cards 1:35:45 - The future of redemptions from Panini as they keep pushing towards points. Follow Sports Cards Nonsense: https://www.tiktok.com/@sportscardsnonsense https://www.instagram.com/sports_cards_nonsense/ https://x.com/SCN_Pod https://www.facebook.com/groups/sportscardsnonsense https://collectibleslife.beehiiv.com/subscribe https://scnchallenge.com/ https://linktr.ee/SportsCardsNonsense?utm_source=linktree_profile_share&ltsid=5764ed98-4893-4eae-bf91-0bd89949ed99 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Key Insights
- The hosts argue that accidental eBay Live listings that roll into standard auctions can sometimes outperform planned sales events due to reduced emotional selling pressure from the hosts during live streaming.
- Mike contends that determining a 'win' in card sales is primarily gut-feel based rather than formula-driven, despite attempts to establish systematic frameworks.
- Jesse argues that successful reinvestment in the same category (like Jordan cards) requires strong track records in player selection, or investors risk making multiple losing moves that offset gains.
- The hosts claim that Fanatics' prohibition on case flipping primarily affects direct distributors but creates perverse incentives for multiple resale layers that can drive secondary market prices even higher.
- Justin Steele suggests that emerging baseball players with strong statistical foundations early in their careers (like PCA and James Wood) may not represent good immediate buying opportunities for card investors.
- A caller argues that modern collector mentality has shifted from purposeful category collection (vintage, set-building, player-collecting) to opportunistic flipping, potentially creating a weaker long-term hobby foundation.
- The hosts assert that the $150 raw card value threshold for PSA grading represents the approximate break-even point where grading costs justify the potential value multiplication (2-3x) for modern cards.
- An analyst-caller calculated that Cooper Flagg has approximately 9 times as many distinct auto versions as LeBron despite being newly released, suggesting the market may not have priced in future supply abundance.
- A caller demonstrates that betting markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) tracking card value predictions can create self-fulfilling prophecies where widespread bearish predictions actually cause prices to decline through behavioral effect.
- The hosts contend that even if one eliminates all historical card products and only releases new ones going forward, the hobby would face devastating growth collapse because retained collectors' personal investments would disappear.
- Mike argues that watching eBay's Listed Items feature accidentally remain active creates unintended secondary market sales that sometimes exceed the value owner's attempted primary sale venue.
- The hosts assert that accessing rare cards like All-Kings inserts requires using premier auction houses with broad audience reach rather than conventional comping methods, as sales data is insufficient for accurate valuation.
Topics
Transcript
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