Lessons Learned
Four geopolitical strategists discuss their formative experiences, intellectual development, and the state of geopolitical analysis as a discipline. They explore what it takes to become an effective analyst, critique academia's failures in training practitioners, and debate whether corporations need dedicated chief geopolitical officers.
Summary
In this extended conversation, Peter Zeihan, Matt Gertgen, Marco Carnelos, and Jacob Shapiro reflect on their careers in geopolitical analysis, primarily shaped by their time at Stratfor. The discussion begins with formative moments in their professional development. Jacob recounts how he correctly predicted Hosni Mubarak would not step down during the Arab Spring, gaining credibility among colleagues. The group discusses how Stratfor emerged as nearly the only institution training commercial geopolitical analysts after think tanks closed following the Cold War's end, creating a unique talent pipeline.
They examine the intellectual foundations of geopolitical analysis, debating whether theory is essential or an impediment. Peter argues that academia failed to produce the next generation of strategic intelligence analysts because 20 years of counterterrorism focus eliminated the training cadre for long-term strategic thinking. The group identifies a critical distinction between tactical intelligence (immediate operational needs) and strategic intelligence (horizon-scanning). They note that universities shifted away from diverse ideological perspectives, becoming dominated by liberal internationalism and constructivism, which inhibited the kind of intellectual pluralism necessary for good analysis.
Regarding formative books, the panelists cite diverse influences: Marco values Thomas Homer-Dixon's 'The Ingenuity Gap' for understanding complexity and brittleness; Peter champions 'World War Z' for its regime-specific analysis; Jacob emphasizes Aristotle and classical political thought for understanding different types of governments in different phases. They discuss how analysis requires multiple frameworks—economic, psychological, cultural, legal—rather than parsimonious single-theory approaches.
The conversation addresses the corporate demand for 'chief geopolitical officer' roles, which the group largely dismisses as misguided. They argue that companies cannot simply hire one person to solve geopolitical risks; instead, they need small, dedicated teams given organizational access and resources. The real problem is the absence of a training pipeline—it takes years to develop a competent analyst, and universities haven't adapted their curricula to prepare people for this work. Peter suggests MBA programs should be reformed to include substantial geopolitical content.
On personal formative experiences: Marco grew up amid the collapse of Yugoslavia, witnessing how nation-states and identities are constructed rather than natural; Jacob discovered geopolitical variation through observing his small Iowa hometown's economic decline and meth crisis; Matt's family engaged in intense intellectual debate across political divides, teaching him that analysis requires separating personal morality from analytical objectivity. Peter's formative moment came from George Friedman's lesson that great writing requires one central idea, told simply, with confidence despite inevitable fallibility.
They conclude by emphasizing that effective geopolitical analysts need intellectual independence—often gained by breaking free from rigid ideologies or doctrines. Religious converts, former communists, and people from collapsed states tend to make better analysts because they've questioned foundational assumptions. The group stresses that companies seek analysts who will provide definitive answers, but good analysis involves identifying the right questions and offering probabilistic scenarios rather than certainty.
About this episode
<p>Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure. </p><p>Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap. </p><p>Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.</p><p>--</p><p><strong><u>Timestamps:</u></strong></p><p>(00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two</p><p>(00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format</p><p>(01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments</p><p>(02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test</p><p>(04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree</p><p>(07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War</p><p>(14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics</p><p>(17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage</p><p>(20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate</p><p>(22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons</p><p>(25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform</p><p>(27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink</p><p>(30:02) - Theory Versus Practice</p><p>(30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts</p><p>(31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics</p><p>(34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs</p><p>(37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale</p><p>(40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist</p><p>(41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion</p><p>(42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable</p><p>(51:07) - Great Men and Psychology</p><p>(54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained</p><p>(56:25) - Displacement and Perspective</p><p>(58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser</p><p>(58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart</p><p>(59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion</p><p>(59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism</p><p>(01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans</p><p>(01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty</p><p>(01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home</p><p>(01:06:18) - Can Places Change</p><p>(01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory</p><p>(01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis</p><p>(01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset</p><p>(01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis</p><p>(01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains</p><p>(01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question</p><p>(01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude</p><p>--</p><p><strong>Geopolitical Cousins</strong> is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at <a href="https://audiographies.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">audiographies.com</a></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro</strong> is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.</p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro Site:</strong> <a href="https://jacobshapiro.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">jacobshapiro.com</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: </strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Twitter:</strong> <a href="https://x.com/JacobShap" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">x.com/JacobShap</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro Substack: </strong><a href="https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">jashap.substack.com/subscribe </a></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Marko Papic</strong> is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.</p><p><strong>Marko’s Book & Newsletter:</strong> <a href="https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic </a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Linkedin:</strong> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/</a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Twitter:</strong> <a href="https://x.com/Geo_papic" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://x.com/Geo_papic</a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:</strong> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro</a></p>
Key Insights
- Peter Zeihan argues that the U.S. lost the ability to train strategic intelligence analysts because 20 years of counterterrorism operations diverted resources from developing the training cadre needed for long-term strategic foresight.
- The group contends that corporations seeking to hire a single chief geopolitical officer misunderstand the nature of geopolitical analysis, which requires small teams with organizational access, years of development, and intellectual autonomy.
- Marco Carnelos claims that lived experience of state collapse (as in Yugoslavia) provides unique analytical advantages because it reveals that nation-states and identities are constructed rather than natural phenomena.
- The panelists argue that academia failed geopolitical training by suppressing ideological diversity, particularly marginalizing realist perspectives in favor of liberal internationalism and constructivism, reducing students' ability to question consensus views.
- Peter Zeihan suggests that effective geopolitical analysis requires multiple intellectual frameworks—economic, psychological, cultural, legal—rather than parsimonious single-theory approaches that academia prioritizes.
- Jacob Shapiro learned from George Friedman that great analysis requires a single central idea clearly communicated, rather than demonstrating intelligence through complexity, and that analysts must write despite inevitable fallibility.
- The group asserts that individuals who have broken free from rigid ideologies—whether religious converts, fallen communists, or people from collapsed states—make better analysts because they've proven capable of questioning foundational assumptions.
- Matt Gertgen argues that the MBA curriculum should be reformed to be 40% geopolitics and politics to prepare business leaders to understand how geopolitical de-globalization affects their operations and strategy.
- The panelists claim that empathetic analysis requires entering the mindset of foreign decision-makers without moral judgment, understanding that actors view themselves as justified and righteous regardless of external ethical assessment.
- Peter Zeihan distinguishes between his long-horizon approach (examining rise and fall of nations, century-long trends) and Ian Bremmer's short-term corporate risk approach, arguing they serve different but legitimate purposes.
- The group argues that companies seeking geopolitical capability need to accept that analysts can only provide 5% answers with incomplete information rather than definitive solutions, and that identifying the critical question is itself a major achievement.
- Jacob Shapiro contends that geographic and economic variation within regions (like Iowa) reveals that identical policies generate different outcomes, requiring deep understanding of local context rather than universal frameworks.
Topics
Transcript
Hello listeners and welcome to a very special episode of Geopolitical Cousins. Joining me on this episode of the podcast besides Cousin Marco and myself is Peter Zaihan and Matt Gertgen. Part two of the podcast we decided to let our hair down a little bit. I don't have any hair to speak of but we talked a little bit about geopolitics as a discipline, some of the greatest intellectual forces in our lives and really just talked back and forth about a lot of things in our field and in the world and things like that. If you haven't checked out our YouTube page, by the way, you can find this video on YouTube. The audio content will be…
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