The King of Israel
The podcast episode discusses the ongoing geopolitical dynamics surrounding Iran, the U.S., and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting how these situations affect global perceptions and alliances. The speakers contemplate the implications of shifting alliances, especially the potential normalization of relations between the U.S. and Iran, and the corresponding impact on regional stability in the Middle East.
Summary
The episode begins with the hosts catching up after some time apart due to illness and travel. They quickly jump into discussing the ongoing war in Ukraine and the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. They express frustration about the seemingly stagnant nature of the Iran-U.S. relationship, while attempting to parse the complex events in the region, including the recent defense alliance among Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, characterized as lacking operational details. The conversation evolves to include how the current geopolitical climate may lead to shifts in alliances, particularly concerning Iran's status and its relationship with neighboring countries. A significant part of the discussion revolves around perceptions of Iran, the role of Israel, and how public opinion in the U.S. is changing regarding these relationships due to recent polling data showing growing sympathy for Palestinians over Israelis. The hosts debate the long-term implications of these dynamics, including the potential for a future where Iran and the U.S. may reach a form of understanding, reflecting on the historical context of U.S.-Iran interactions that began during the Cold War. They express the view that traditional perceptions of freedom of navigation and choke points in geopolitics are less relevant today. The episode concludes with thoughts on how regional powers need to redefine their strategies while considering that stability may drive Israel to recalibrate its alliances as well.
About this episode
<p>It's been a minute. Marko and Jacob are back after a long gap, and not much has changed: the Hormuz standoff drags on, the war in Ukraine grinds forward, and the stock market shrugged it all off. Marko argues freedom of navigation was always empire's marketing slogan. Jacob pushes back on why Israel keeps mattering more than his own theory allows. The cousins disagree about Russia's next move, but what's new?</p><p>--</p><p><strong><u>Timestamps:</u></strong></p><p>(00:00) - Welcome Back Cousins!</p><p>(00:53) - Same Old Geopolitics</p><p>(01:43) - Hormuz Deal Rumors</p><p>(02:26) - Markets Ignore War</p><p>(03:34) - No Total War Thesis</p><p>(08:12) - Kinetic Activity Debate</p><p>(09:56) - Pipelines Undercut Iran</p><p>(13:45) - AI Bubble vs Oil Risk</p><p>(18:24) - Tolls and China Advantage</p><p>(22:44) - Freedom of Navigation Rant</p><p>(30:05) - Geography vs Technology</p><p>(36:54) - Pivot to Russia Ukraine</p><p>(39:07) - Wars Find Equilibrium</p><p>(41:04) - Ukraine War Normalized</p><p>(41:55) - Drones Hit Russia Home</p><p>43:46) - NATO Targets Warning</p><p>(45:08) - Black Sea Price Shock</p><p>(46:57) - Iran US New Equilibrium</p><p>(49:25) - Ukraine Breaks Stalemate</p><p>(52:35) - Putin Leverage Options</p><p>(55:48) - Spice Alliance Limits</p><p>(58:22) - Why West Hates Iran</p><p>(01:00:43) - Cold War Origins</p><p>(01:03:44) - Israel Alliance Reframed</p><p>(01:07:30) - Mandela Versus Arafat</p><p>(01:13:49) - Netanyahu Pulls Trump</p><p>(01:16:16) - Israel Utility Not Sympathy</p><p>(01:20:19) - Israel Should Deal Iran</p><p>(01:22:23) - Closing Thoughts</p><p>--</p><p><strong>Geopolitical Cousins</strong> is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at <a href="https://audiographies.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">audiographies.com</a></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro</strong> is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.</p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro Site:</strong> <a href="https://jacobshapiro.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">jacobshapiro.com</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: </strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Twitter:</strong> <a href="https://x.com/JacobShap" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">x.com/JacobShap</a></p><p><strong>Jacob Shapiro Substack: </strong><a href="https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">jashap.substack.com/subscribe </a></p><p>--</p><p><strong>Marko Papic</strong> is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.</p><p><strong>Marko’s Book & Newsletter:</strong> <a href="https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic </a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Linkedin:</strong> <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/</a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Twitter:</strong> <a href="https://x.com/Geo_papic" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://x.com/Geo_papic</a></p><p><strong>Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:</strong> <a href="https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro</a></p>
Key Insights
- The hosts express frustration at the lack of significant changes in geopolitical situations, particularly concerning the Iran-U.S. relationship, which they feel remains stagnant.
- A new defense alliance among Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia is discussed, characterized as being filled with grand ambitions but lacking operational details.
- The speakers argue that neither side in the Iran-U.S. conflict truly wants total war, suggesting a dynamic of ongoing tension rather than outright conflict.
- There is a growing recognition that geopolitical stability often hinges on accommodation and compromise over confrontation.
- Polls indicate changing U.S. public sentiment, with a plurality now showing more sympathy for Palestinians than for Israelis, complicating Israel's traditional diplomatic positioning.
- The speakers highlight that wars can reach an equilibrium where civilian life continues unaffected, a dynamic previously seen in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- They emphasize that traditional geopolitics, such as the importance of choke points like the Strait of Hormuz, may be overestimated in light of new logistical methods.
- China is posited as a key actor that could shift dynamics in Middle Eastern geopolitics, depending on its relations with Iran and its needs for natural resources.
- The historical context of U.S.-Iran relations illustrates a legacy of mistrust stemming from Cold War dynamics, which is now viewed as anachronistic.
- The hosts argue that Israel’s ideological stance against Iran may be counterproductive, suggesting Israel's future interests would benefit from improving relations with Persia.
- The discussion hints at the potential for a more multipolar world where Middle Eastern nations may pursue their own interests apart from U.S. hegemony.
- They state that military action by Russia against Ukraine could escalate tensions and provoke a stronger response from NATO, complicating long-term stability in the region.
Topics
Transcript
Hello listeners, welcome to another episode of Geopolitical Cousins. Sorry it has been a minute. Work travel, sickness, blah, blah, blah. You don't want to hear the excuses. Here's the episode. Enjoy it. We're back at it at our regular cadence. Cheers and see you out there. All right, for listeners, this will be their first time hearing from their cousins since listening to our episode with Godfather Peter and Matt. So nice to see you all. I haven't seen Marco in a couple of weeks. Marco, it's nice to be back, man. I wish I could say that it was because we were taking vacations. But the truth is you got strep throat, which is great. And then I…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Geopolitical Cousins
Flies to Poop
In this compressed 50-minute episode of Geopolitical Cousins, the hosts discuss Middle East instability driven by opportunistic actors (Houthis, Iraqi militias) seeking payment rather than ideology, European structural reforms aimed at creating competitive global companies and a single market for services, and concerns about AI regulatory capture by frontier model companies limiting competition and innovation.
The Fourth Reich
Two geopolitical analysts discuss the rise of Germany's AFD party in recent elections, arguing that while it represents a rightward populist shift, it doesn't constitute a return to Nazism but rather reflects legitimate concerns about immigration, energy policy, and restrictions on political discourse. They then pivot to analyzing the Iran-Houthi conflict, arguing that escalations are being managed by market forces and Greek shipping companies rather than leading to catastrophic oil price spikes.
Rabies-infested beavers
In this episode of Geopolitical Cousins, hosts Jacob and Marco analyze the escalating US-Canada trade war, arguing that Mark Carney's retaliatory strategy is stronger than it appears because Canadians have higher pain tolerance, fiscal space, and can wait out Trump's administration. They contend that the US fundamentally misunderstands the deal it has with Canada, which involves Canadian defense spending that actually protects American interests, and that Trump's approach threatens to undermine decades of North American alliance-building with potentially severe long-term geopolitical consequences.
Scotty Doesn't Know
In this episode of Geopolitical Cousins, the hosts discuss rising U.S. Treasury bond yields, Scott Bessent's interventions to stabilize markets, the geopolitical drivers of the bond sell-off (particularly the Iran conflict), and broader economic concerns about AI CapEx sustainability and political populism threatening data center development.
Lessons Learned
Four geopolitical strategists discuss their formative experiences, intellectual development, and the state of geopolitical analysis as a discipline. They explore what it takes to become an effective analyst, critique academia's failures in training practitioners, and debate whether corporations need dedicated chief geopolitical officers.