This Week in Review | US-Iran Conflict, US Inflation, New UK Prime Minister (July 17, 2026)

The episode begins with US-Iran tensions, where President Trump reimposed a blockade on Iranian shipping following the announcement that a ceasefire was over. This caused oil prices to jump nearly 10% on Monday alone, climbing into the low 80s per barrel. However, the speakers argue this does not represent a radical shift, noting that businesses have adapted to energy supply constraints through increased pipeline usage, production diversification outside the Persian Gulf, and expanded US oil exports. They reference the 2022 Ukraine invasion as a historical comparison, which forced larger structural shifts and saw Brent crude peak at $133 before normalizing, whereas current oil prices at $80 are more moderate.

On inflation, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released June's CPI data showing headline inflation decelerated to 3.5% year-over-year—lower than economist forecasts and marking the first deceleration in year-over-year CPI in 2026. The deceleration was broad-based, with energy costs and gasoline prices declining. While commentators warn July's numbers may be affected by the Iran escalation, the speakers emphasize that inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, and with global money supply growth remaining moderate, a sustained inflation spike is unlikely.

Finally, regarding the UK, Andy Bernham secured over 80% support from the Labor Party to become the next prime minister, officially taking office Monday. He inherits similar headwinds that faced his predecessor Starmer, and with the next general election not required until 2029, he must manage internal party factions and political gridlock. The speakers view this as a quiet positive for markets, as low expectations reduce negative surprise potential and open the door for positive surprises if policy proves less disruptive than feared.