Fisher Investments

This Week in Review covers three major developments: UK political instability following Labour's local election losses and a cabinet resignation, the swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chair replacing Jerome Powell, and a cautionary analysis of the current IPO wave. Fisher Investments analysts argue that while each development creates short-term uncertainty, none is necessarily negative for long-term investors.

Ken Fisher argues that consumer sentiment is not a useful predictor of stock market performance. Instead, he explains that consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator, meaning it moves alongside the market rather than ahead of it. Investors should not make stock decisions based on consumer sentiment readings.

The video argues that Kevin Warsh succeeding Jerome Powell as Fed chair will have limited impact on markets and monetary policy. The 12-member FOMC sets policy collectively, reducing any single chair's influence. Broader economic fundamentals, not Fed leadership changes, are seen as the primary driver of the ongoing bull market.

Ken Fisher discusses recent market volatility triggered by the Iranian war, explaining it fell short of a formal correction. He outlines his 2026 market forecast, predicting a sideways first half followed by a stronger advance in the second half. Fisher emphasizes that volatility is a permanent, unpredictable feature of stock markets.

Ken Fisher addresses common investor concerns including inflation as a recession indicator, US policy unpredictability, the 'Sell in May' strategy, and the national debt. He argues that current inflation is not alarming by historical standards, that national debt levels are not yet problematic, and that waiting for clarity in markets is a costly mistake.

This is an introductory video from Fisher Investments outlining their investment philosophy, client services, and fee structure. The firm emphasizes a top-down, globally diversified portfolio management approach led by a five-member Investment Policy Committee with over 150 years of combined experience. Fisher Investments positions itself as a fee-only, client-first advisor serving over 200,000 clients globally since 1979.

Fisher Investments' weekly market briefing covers three key topics for the week of May 18, 2026: global inflation readings from Canada, the eurozone, the UK, and Japan; the upcoming release of Fed meeting minutes from April; and the University of Michigan's final May consumer sentiment reading. The video argues that energy-driven inflation spikes are temporary, Fed minutes are difficult to interpret meaningfully, and falling consumer sentiment may actually support the ongoing bull market.

Fisher Investments' weekly review covers three major developments: April US inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, President Trump's summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, and the US Senate's confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. The segment argues that inflation fears are overblown, US-China dialogue reduces uncertainty, and Fed chair transitions have less market impact than headlines suggest. Overall, the outlook remains bullish for stocks.

Ken Fisher explains why he does not attempt to predict Federal Reserve actions, arguing that Fed members are fundamentally unpredictable. He compares the Open Market Committee's behavior to that of chimpanzees or crazy people, citing over 50 years of skepticism toward the Fed. He also emphasizes that no single central bank should be viewed in isolation — the totality of global central banks matters more.

Ken Fisher argues that defense stocks do not perform as many investors expect during geopolitical conflicts. He explains that brief spikes in defense stocks at the start of a conflict typically fade and often lead to underperformance from the conflict's onset. Only unexpected, material increases in global defense spending drive sustained gains in defense stocks.

Prediction markets are described as a form of gambling where a tiny fraction of users generate most profits while the majority lose money. The hosts caution against treating them as investment opportunities but acknowledge their value as sentiment gauging tools. They argue prediction markets capture collective expectations more dynamically than traditional surveys because participants back their beliefs with real money.

Ken Fisher outlines a three-phase pattern observed across nine post-1980 energy-centric conflicts, explaining how oil prices and stock markets behave predictably before, during, and after fighting begins. He applies this framework to the Iranian conflict, noting that falling oil prices and rising stocks to all-time highs are consistent with the third phase. Fisher concludes that oil prices 6-12 months after a conflict begins are typically lower than pre-conflict levels.

Fisher Investments' weekly briefing covers three topics: April CPI data and why sustained high inflation is unlikely without money supply growth, the risks and limited investment value of prediction markets, and how to protect yourself from increasingly sophisticated AI-driven financial fraud.

Michael Hanson of Fisher Investments addresses investor questions on US-Iran tensions, defense stocks, IPOs, the new Fed Chair, and private credit risks. He argues that markets are resilient and adaptive, typically recovering faster than expected from regional conflicts. He sees the second half of 2026 as potentially strong due to the 'Midterm Miracle' pattern of Congressional gridlock.

Fisher Investments' May 8, 2026 weekly review covers three major topics: a US court ruling striking down Trump's Section 122 tariffs, context around US national debt surpassing 100% of GDP, and April's stronger-than-expected jobs report showing 115,000 nonfarm payrolls added. The segment argues markets have largely priced in tariff risk, that debt-to-GDP is a misleading metric, and that AI-related layoffs should be viewed in broader historical and economic context.

Ken Fisher discusses stock market volatility in the context of the Iranian war's market impact, explaining that a less-than-10% decline is considered normal noise rather than a correction. He argues that volatility is always a high-probability event in any time frame and advises perpetual preparedness. Fisher also shares his 2026 market forecast, predicting a sideways first half and a stronger advance in the second half.

The UAE's planned withdrawal from OPEC signals a decline in the cartel's influence over global oil markets. The US has emerged as the dominant swing producer, and economies have become less oil-intensive, reducing the impact of oil shocks. The analysts argue that investor fears about OPEC's power are overblown relative to market realities.

The speaker debunks the common belief that World War II ended the Great Depression, arguing that war does not end recessions. Instead, wartime manufacturing activity is mistakenly conflated with GDP growth, and world wars actually disrupt global trade, causing economic dislocation.

Ken Fisher warns investors against the common impulse to buy defense stocks when military conflicts begin, calling it a 'head fake' from what he terms 'The Great Humiliator.' He argues that sustained defense stock gains require unexpected increases in global defense spending, not the onset of conflict itself. Fisher also contends that military conflicts cost less than assumed because they partially replace normal training expenditures.

Fisher Investments' weekly market update covers three key topics: global PMI data showing business resilience despite the Iran conflict, record-low US consumer confidence and its disconnect from market reality, and weakness in the US housing market. The video argues that pessimistic sentiment creates bullish opportunities and that housing's economic influence is often overstated. Global stocks have recently hit all-time highs despite ongoing geopolitical concerns.