Fisher Investments

This financial market briefing covers three key economic topics: US consumer credit data showing households in relatively strong financial shape despite rising debt, trade balance figures that can indicate economic strength rather than weakness, and charitable giving strategies including QCDs and donor-advised funds available as year-end approaches.

This Week in Review covers Q3 2026 market performance showing stocks up ~12% year-to-date despite geopolitical risks, discusses September's slower job growth and the flawed assumption that labor market expansion automatically triggers wage-driven inflation, and highlights a US-China tariff reduction agreement on $60 billion in goods as a positive step reducing trade uncertainty.

Fisher Investments advises investors to resist panic-driven decisions during market downturns, emphasizing that emotional reactions often harm long-term outcomes. The firm positions itself as a partner that provides education, communication, and perspective to help clients stay focused on their goals despite market volatility.

Fisher Investments emphasizes a personalized, client-centered approach to wealth management that begins with understanding your goals and life circumstances rather than selling products. The firm offers comprehensive financial planning services aligned with your timeline, from pre-retirement accumulation through legacy planning, with fiduciary obligations and fee-based compensation that aligns their interests with clients.

Fisher Investments emphasizes its simple, fee-only structure where advisers charge one straightforward portfolio-based fee with no commissions or transaction-based earnings, ensuring their interests align with clients' interests and fiduciary obligations are built into how the firm operates.

Ken Fisher explains his bullish outlook on Japan's stock market, attributing strong recent performance to Japan being a value-focused market during a period when value stocks are outperforming growth stocks. He anticipates this outperformance trend to continue as long as banks maintain aggressive lending, which supports value-based companies.

Ken Fisher analyzes the 2022 midterm elections, examining House and Senate races with focus on polling trends in September as predictive indicators. He also discusses the historical pattern of strong stock market performance during the nine months following midterm elections, termed the 'Midterm Miracle.'

Ken Fisher argues that US-Canada tariffs are counterproductive political theater that harm both nations without achieving their stated goals. He contends tariffs are fundamentally negative tools, citing evidence that trade deficits actually increased after tariff implementation, and suggests both leaders benefit politically while ordinary citizens suffer the consequences.

This episode covers three key market topics: September's US jobs report showing continued employment growth and lower unemployment, inflation data from the US and eurozone indicating gradual price moderation, and the upcoming 2026 midterm elections which historically trigger a nine-month period of strong stock market performance due to legislative gridlock.

Ken Fisher debunks the myth that baby boomer retirements will harm the economy, explaining that Social Security cannot technically go bankrupt since it's a pay-as-you-go system, and that retirees actually save more than commonly believed, reinvesting their wealth back into the economy.

This Week in Review covers three major financial topics: stock market volatility driven by AI concerns and bond yields, Bitcoin's recent rally above $86,000 despite remaining below its October peak, and the strategic considerations for Roth IRA conversions as a tax planning tool.

Equity supply monitoring is important for understanding stock market pricing dynamics. Currently, equity supply growth is not problematic because IPO activity has cooled following SpaceX's underperformance, and M&A stock-based deals remain limited.

Ken Fisher explains the 'midterm miracle,' a historical pattern showing that the fourth quarter of a U.S. president's second year and the two subsequent quarters have demonstrated approximately 95% profitability over the past 100 years. He attributes this to reduced political risk aversion after midterm elections when the opposition gains power, limiting the president's ability to pass major legislation.

Ken Fisher identifies a significant unpriced market risk: the absence of a classic bear market coupled with a business cycle recession for 17 years, which means necessary economic 'house cleaning' hasn't occurred. He argues that the biggest risks are often those we cannot anticipate, not the widely-discussed ones already priced into markets.

This episode covers three major topics affecting markets: diplomatic meetings between world leaders that rarely produce immediate economic impact, September PMI data showing continued economic expansion across major developed economies, and declining US consumer sentiment that may create opportunities if reality exceeds low expectations.

This Week in Review covers three major market developments: the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023 (25 basis points to 3.75-4%), tech sector volatility driven by AI safety concerns, and rising bond yields globally reaching levels unseen in decades. The hosts emphasize that these moves were largely expected, offer historical context for current yields, and remind investors to focus on broader fundamentals rather than short-term market swings.

Ken Fisher explains the 'Midterm Miracle' phenomenon, which shows that the fourth quarter of a president's second-term midterm election year and the subsequent two quarters historically represent the most consistently profitable nine-month period for stock markets. He expects strong market performance through the end of 2026 and into early 2027 based on this historical pattern.

Ken Fisher argues that the current bull market's 20% average return since October 2022 is not excessive relative to historical bull market performance. He contends that the concern about the market rising "too far, too fast" is a misguided perspective, since bull markets historically average 23% annual returns and this current market is performing in line with long-term bull market norms.

Ken Fisher addresses investor questions about market crashes, government debt, construction indicators, and risk management. He argues that there's insufficient evidence to determine whether crashes are less likely today, that debt-to-GDP ratios tell us nothing meaningful, and that construction trends are not particularly important economic indicators.

This episode covers three key financial topics: the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision expected to be a 25 basis point hike, August retail sales data release that shouldn't be over-interpreted due to monthly volatility, and the Medicare annual enrollment period opening October 15th through December 7th.