Ken Fisher: 2026 Mid-Year Market Update
Ken Fisher reviews Fisher Investments' 2026 mid-year market forecast, noting it has largely materialized as predicted with strong performance. Key surprises include AI-related tech significantly outperforming the broader market and unexpected geopolitical events, while midterm election-year gridlock patterns have emerged somewhat earlier than typical.
Summary
Ken Fisher provides a mid-year update on Fisher Investments' annual market forecast for 2026. He explains that the firm's projections are tracking reasonably well, though not perfectly. Fisher highlights a recurring market pattern he has observed for years: the back quarter of midterm election years and the first couple of quarters of the third year tend to be quite strong, as gridlock typically increases following midterm elections. He notes this pattern may have accelerated earlier than usual in 2026 due to Congress already exhibiting significant gridlock. The update identifies several variances from the original forecast. Most notably, AI-related technology stocks have significantly outperformed expectations, with the tech sector collectively performing approximately 4% better year-to-date than the US market overall. Additionally, two geopolitical and monetary developments were not anticipated: the Iran war and a European Central Bank rate hike in spring, though Fisher suggests the latter is not a major concern. Overall, Fisher concludes that the year has progressed largely as expected, with performance tracking slightly better than their initial projections.
Key Insights
- Fisher Investments observes that the back quarter of midterm election years and first couple quarters of the third year tend to be quite strong as gridlock increases, a pattern that has held true for years but few people believe.
- Congressional gridlock has manifested earlier than normal in 2026, potentially accelerating the typical post-election market strength pattern that Fisher predicted.
- AI-related technology stocks are performing approximately 4% better year-to-date than the overall US market, representing a larger outperformance than Fisher Investments forecasted.
- Fisher Investments did not anticipate the Iran war as part of their 2026 forecast, indicating an unforeseen geopolitical development that emerged during the year.
- The European Central Bank's spring rate hike was not forecasted but Fisher characterizes it as not being a significant issue for market dynamics.
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] So, every year at the beginning of the year we provide a forecast of what we at Fisher Investments think the year will mostly look like and inherently, as the year progresses, people wonder how's that working out? And this year is working out pretty well, not perfectly. There's this feature that I've used for years and years that no one ever really believes, but it always works. That the back quarter and of the midterm election year and the first [0:32] couple of quarters of the third year tend to be quite strong as we get over, if you will, the election and see that the midterm elections tend to provide us absolute or relative increase gridlock. That…
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