This Week in Review | Q2 Market Recap, June US Jobs, Trade Deal Update (July 3, 2026)

Fisher Investments' weekly market review for July 3, 2026, opens with acknowledgment of America's 250th anniversary and provides comprehensive coverage of three major market developments. The Q2 market recap details how global equities navigated geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, inflation concerns, and Federal Reserve leadership changes. After a near-correction in Q1, markets recovered substantially with 8.9% gains in April and 4.8% in May, though June brought renewed volatility centered on technology sector pullbacks, ending the quarter relatively flat. Energy markets, a dominant narrative throughout H1 2026, saw Brent crude spike above $110 per barrel in March due to Iran conflict disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipping, but prices subsequently stabilized around $72 per barrel by late June, returning to pre-conflict levels. The discussion emphasizes that widely-publicized market concerns like AI infrastructure spending justification and inflation fears are already priced into markets, reducing surprise potential, and notes that volatility is normal even in bull markets, with history showing disciplined investors are rewarded. The US jobs report section reveals June non-farm payrolls increased 57,000 with unemployment falling to 4.2%, marking four consecutive months of job growth despite falling below expectations due to reduced labor force participation. While AI-related layoff headlines persist, the commentary contextualizes these within a broader innovation narrative, arguing that technological disruption creates short-term winners and losers but historically generates more jobs than lost, requiring time for labor market transition. The trade deal update addresses the mandatory six-year review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (replacing NAFTA in 2020), where the Trump administration confirmed non-extension, leaving the existing deal intact but subject to annual reviews through 2036. The segment concludes that anticipated policy outcomes lack surprise value and that fundamental support for the bull market remains solid despite headline-driven urgency around trade policy.