This Week in Review | Q2 Market Recap, June US Jobs, Trade Deal Update (July 3, 2026)
This market review covers Q2 2026 performance showing global stocks rebounded 8.9% in April and 4.8% in May before experiencing June volatility, primarily in tech. Key developments include stabilizing oil prices post-Iran conflict, elevated inflation at 4.2%, weak June job growth of 57,000 with falling unemployment to 4.2%, and the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement review proceeding without extension.
Summary
Fisher Investments' weekly market review for July 3, 2026, opens with acknowledgment of America's 250th anniversary and provides comprehensive coverage of three major market developments. The Q2 market recap details how global equities navigated geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, inflation concerns, and Federal Reserve leadership changes. After a near-correction in Q1, markets recovered substantially with 8.9% gains in April and 4.8% in May, though June brought renewed volatility centered on technology sector pullbacks, ending the quarter relatively flat. Energy markets, a dominant narrative throughout H1 2026, saw Brent crude spike above $110 per barrel in March due to Iran conflict disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipping, but prices subsequently stabilized around $72 per barrel by late June, returning to pre-conflict levels. The discussion emphasizes that widely-publicized market concerns like AI infrastructure spending justification and inflation fears are already priced into markets, reducing surprise potential, and notes that volatility is normal even in bull markets, with history showing disciplined investors are rewarded. The US jobs report section reveals June non-farm payrolls increased 57,000 with unemployment falling to 4.2%, marking four consecutive months of job growth despite falling below expectations due to reduced labor force participation. While AI-related layoff headlines persist, the commentary contextualizes these within a broader innovation narrative, arguing that technological disruption creates short-term winners and losers but historically generates more jobs than lost, requiring time for labor market transition. The trade deal update addresses the mandatory six-year review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (replacing NAFTA in 2020), where the Trump administration confirmed non-extension, leaving the existing deal intact but subject to annual reviews through 2036. The segment concludes that anticipated policy outcomes lack surprise value and that fundamental support for the bull market remains solid despite headline-driven urgency around trade policy.
Key Insights
- Global stocks rebounded 8.9% in April and 4.8% in May following a near-correction in Q1, but June volatility driven by tech stock pullbacks ended the quarter around flat
- Brent crude oil peaked above $110 per barrel in March due to Iran conflict disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipping, but steadily declined to around $72 per barrel by end of June, returning to pre-conflict levels
- Markets actively price in widely discussed fears, which reduces their ability to surprise stocks, and volatility can occur for any reason or no reason at all, even in years where stocks perform well
- June non-farm payrolls rose only 57,000 with unemployment falling to 4.2%, marking four straight months of job growth despite falling below expectations due to reduced labor force participation
- The Trump administration confirmed it would not extend the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement in the mandatory six-year review, leaving the existing deal intact but subject to annual reviews, with trade between these deeply integrated economies continuing regardless
Topics
Transcript
[0:05] Hello and welcome to this week in review. This weekly segment is designed to highlight a few important developments you may have missed this week, what they may mean for markets, and most importantly, the potential impact for investors. To stay up-to-date [music] with our latest market insights, subscribe to our YouTube channel or visit fisherinvestments.com. Before we dive in, a quick word as we head into the July 4th weekend. This year marks America's 250th anniversary since the signing of the Declaration of Independence, a remarkable milestone [0:36] worth pausing to appreciate. Wherever you're spending the holiday, we hope it's a safe and restful one. Now, let's review what happened this week. First, a Q2 market recap. Tuesday…
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