3 Things You Need to Know This Week | US Inflation, Fed Minutes, Consumer Sentiment (April 6, 2026)

This weekly market update from Fisher Investments covers three important economic releases. First, March U.S. inflation data will be released Friday, with February's CPI at 2.4% year-over-year. Despite concerns about Middle East conflicts driving oil price volatility and potentially reigniting inflation, the analysis notes that inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon requiring increased money supply, which isn't happening from oil price spikes alone. Global money supply growth remains tame. Second, the Fed will release March meeting minutes on Wednesday, but the presenter argues that attempting to predict Fed actions is futile since officials often say one thing and do another, and the minutes are edited and redacted rather than full transcripts. Third, the University of Michigan's preliminary April consumer confidence data will be released Friday, with March revised down to a historically low 53.3, likely due to energy cost spikes from Middle East conflicts. However, consumer sentiment surveys don't reliably predict economic futures and often just reflect current emotions and existing trends. The analysis suggests weaker sentiment can actually be positive by setting lower expectations that reality can exceed.