This Week in Review | Q1 Recap, Earnings Guidance, Elections (Apr. 3, 2026)
Q1 2026 saw sideways market movement with correction-level volatility driven by Middle East conflicts, government shutdown fears, and tariff concerns. Despite challenges, Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations marking potential sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, while global elections in Denmark, Italy, and France created legislative gridlock that typically benefits equity markets.
Summary
The first quarter of 2026 presented a mixed picture for global markets, with stocks experiencing early January gains followed by sideways movement through late February and March declines. Several headline fears dominated the news cycle, including potential government shutdowns, tariff updates, and ongoing Middle East conflicts, with the Iran war situation weighing most heavily on investor sentiment. While narrower indexes like the Nasdaq entered correction territory (10-20% decline), broader global benchmarks such as the MSCI World Index remained just above correction levels. The quarter demonstrated that market volatility remains normal during bull markets, with stocks being forward-looking and pricing in widely known information. Corporate earnings provided a bright spot, with Q4 2025 results exceeding expectations and demonstrating corporate America's resilience. This marked another strong quarter in what could become the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, with business leaders expressing optimism despite challenging economic conditions. The earnings season reinforced the market's forward-looking nature, as stocks had already priced in the positive developments months earlier. On the political front, global elections in Denmark, Italy, and France resulted in legislative gridlock, which historically benefits equity markets by reducing the risk of major policy shifts. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen's early election backfired, Italy's judicial reform was rejected, and French local elections saw gains for opposing populist parties without decisive victories. In the US, midterm election speculation is building, though the analysis cautions against drawing early conclusions. The overall outlook suggests continued market volatility in the near term, with potential for stronger performance later in 2026 as election uncertainties resolve.
Key Insights
- Market history overwhelmingly shows regional conflicts rarely cause a global economic recession or bear market, though uncertainty can cause volatility before markets digest actual developments
- The Q4 2025 earnings season exceeded expectations, potentially marking the sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth across most sectors
- Stocks have been pricing in the ongoing earnings upturn since the bull market began in October 2022, demonstrating markets move first before quarterly reports confirm expectations
- Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen's attempt to consolidate power through early elections backfired when her Social Democrats lost their absolute majority despite remaining the largest party
- Midterm campaigning often contributes to choppy returns in the first half of election years, but stocks tend to rally later in the year as results become clear
Topics
Transcript
[0:06] Hello, and welcome to This Week in Review. This weekly segment is designed to highlight a few important developments you may have missed this week, what they may mean for markets and most importantly, the potential impact for investors. To stay up to date with our latest market insights, subscribe to our YouTube channel or visit FisherInvestments.com. Now, let's review what happened this week. First, a recap of how markets did in the first quarter. Stocks rose in early January but saw sideways chop from mid January through late February and declined for most of March. This doesn't surprise us, as several headline fears dominated the news cycle [0:39] in Q1. We saw news about government shutdowns, tariff updates…
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