Ken Fisher on Measuring Inflation, Currency Reset, Commodities and More

Fisher begins by addressing inflation data accuracy, explaining that inflation measurements are inherently imprecise due to individual consumption variations and the false precision attributed to small percentage differences. He argues that market reactions to minor inflation variations (like 2.5% vs 2.7%) are largely meaningless given the data's inherent inaccuracy. On currency reset speculation, Fisher provides historical context showing the dollar's decline under the current administration mirrors Trump's first term almost exactly, following the typical pattern of dollar weakness in the first 1-2 years of Republican presidencies (with Reagan's first term being the only exception since WWII). He dismisses reset theories, noting Bitcoin's decline contradicts crypto-based currency transformation arguments. Regarding commodities, Fisher distinguishes between major commodities like copper (which he views as purely speculative with no sustainable edge for most investors) and specialty commodities like rare earths (which face boom-bust cycles but remain timing-dependent). He emphasizes that legendary investors like Buffett and Templeton avoided commodity speculation. Finally, Fisher establishes a hierarchy of economic indicators: the MSCI World Index ranks as the best recession predictor (since US recessions coincide with global downturns), followed by the S&P 500, with yield curve shifts serving as the second-best indicator due to their influence on bank lending behavior.