Koniec obniżek. Iran psuje twój kredyt.

The conversation opens with the assertion that those waiting for further interest rate drops in Poland will likely be disappointed. The guest argues that not only are further cuts off the table, but the next move in rates is more likely upward than downward. Financial market instruments (Forward Rate Agreements) are currently pricing in three rate hikes in Poland before year-end, though official central bank communications have not yet signaled any increases.

The primary catalyst for this shift is the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes. The disruption caused an immediate spike in global oil prices, which fed directly into inflation. Poland had entered 2025 with strong expectations — supported by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) — that at least one or two additional rate cuts were coming, following a series of cuts from June through December of the previous year. A cut did occur in early March, but the outbreak of the Iran conflict shortly after changed the calculus entirely.

The Polish government attempted to counteract rising fuel prices by introducing the CPN program at the start of April, cutting gas taxes and reducing VAT, which temporarily lowered pump prices by about 1 PLN. However, this did not prevent inflation from rising further in April, as higher transport costs began spreading to other sectors of the economy such as airline tickets and tourism. Food prices, which carry the highest weight in the Polish inflation basket, have so far remained relatively stable due to large crop surpluses from the previous year — notably an oversupply of potatoes — but this buffer is expected to erode if the conflict continues.

Poland's inflation target is 2.5%, and the country started the year near 2%, but has since risen above 3% and is forecast to settle around 4% for a prolonged period. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates, possibly as early as June, partly driven by pressure from Central and Eastern European member states (Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Croatia, Bulgaria) that have persistently struggled with high inflation. The speakers note that Poland must maintain a manageable interest rate differential with the eurozone, and ECB hikes would add additional pressure for Poland to raise its own rates.

The speakers discuss the geopolitical deadlock underpinning the crisis: Iran has rejected diplomatic engagement with the United States, citing a previous agreement reached in July that was followed by U.S. military strikes. Internal confusion about who holds power in Iran further complicates any resolution. The military faction appears dominant and benefits strategically from maintaining the blockade as leverage. Meanwhile, the U.S. has reportedly expended significant military resources in the conflict — more than over four years in Ukraine — and faces mounting domestic pressure from record-high fuel prices heading into an election season.

On the question of how quickly a resolution would affect markets and inflation, the guest argues that financial markets would react almost immediately to any sign of conflict resolution, as markets price in the future. Oil prices would drop quickly, easing inflationary pressure rapidly. However, actual physical oil supply restoration would take longer due to damaged infrastructure and logistical challenges in reorganizing shipping routes. The guest notes a second wave of oil price increases is now underway as markets recognize the conflict has no clear roadmap for resolution, reversing earlier optimism that the situation would be brief.