Koniec obniżek. Iran psuje twój kredyt.
The discussion centers on why interest rate cuts in Poland are effectively over, primarily due to the war in Iran disrupting global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Rising inflation driven by fuel prices has reversed previous expectations of further rate reductions, with financial markets now pricing in three rate hikes in Poland by year-end. The speakers argue that without a resolution to the Iran conflict, lower borrowing costs are unlikely in the near future.
Summary
The conversation opens with the assertion that those waiting for further interest rate drops in Poland will likely be disappointed. The guest argues that not only are further cuts off the table, but the next move in rates is more likely upward than downward. Financial market instruments (Forward Rate Agreements) are currently pricing in three rate hikes in Poland before year-end, though official central bank communications have not yet signaled any increases.
The primary catalyst for this shift is the war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes. The disruption caused an immediate spike in global oil prices, which fed directly into inflation. Poland had entered 2025 with strong expectations — supported by the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) — that at least one or two additional rate cuts were coming, following a series of cuts from June through December of the previous year. A cut did occur in early March, but the outbreak of the Iran conflict shortly after changed the calculus entirely.
The Polish government attempted to counteract rising fuel prices by introducing the CPN program at the start of April, cutting gas taxes and reducing VAT, which temporarily lowered pump prices by about 1 PLN. However, this did not prevent inflation from rising further in April, as higher transport costs began spreading to other sectors of the economy such as airline tickets and tourism. Food prices, which carry the highest weight in the Polish inflation basket, have so far remained relatively stable due to large crop surpluses from the previous year — notably an oversupply of potatoes — but this buffer is expected to erode if the conflict continues.
Poland's inflation target is 2.5%, and the country started the year near 2%, but has since risen above 3% and is forecast to settle around 4% for a prolonged period. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates, possibly as early as June, partly driven by pressure from Central and Eastern European member states (Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Croatia, Bulgaria) that have persistently struggled with high inflation. The speakers note that Poland must maintain a manageable interest rate differential with the eurozone, and ECB hikes would add additional pressure for Poland to raise its own rates.
The speakers discuss the geopolitical deadlock underpinning the crisis: Iran has rejected diplomatic engagement with the United States, citing a previous agreement reached in July that was followed by U.S. military strikes. Internal confusion about who holds power in Iran further complicates any resolution. The military faction appears dominant and benefits strategically from maintaining the blockade as leverage. Meanwhile, the U.S. has reportedly expended significant military resources in the conflict — more than over four years in Ukraine — and faces mounting domestic pressure from record-high fuel prices heading into an election season.
On the question of how quickly a resolution would affect markets and inflation, the guest argues that financial markets would react almost immediately to any sign of conflict resolution, as markets price in the future. Oil prices would drop quickly, easing inflationary pressure rapidly. However, actual physical oil supply restoration would take longer due to damaged infrastructure and logistical challenges in reorganizing shipping routes. The guest notes a second wave of oil price increases is now underway as markets recognize the conflict has no clear roadmap for resolution, reversing earlier optimism that the situation would be brief.
About this episode
<p>Sprawdź co potrafi Asystent AI programu Ekonomicznie: <a href="http://ekonomicznieai.voicehouse.co/">http://ekonomicznieai.voicehouse.co/</a></p><p><br /></p><p>W tym odcinku programu Ekonomicznie Jarosław Kuźniar i Rafał Hirsch analizują, dlaczego zamknięcie Cieśniny Ormuz przez Iran przekreśliło plany Rady Polityki Pieniężnej. I co to oznacza dla każdego, kto planuje kredyt mieszkaniowy.</p><p><br /></p><p>Inflacja w Polsce znów rośnie, obniżki stóp zniknęły z horyzontu, a rynkowe kontrakty terminowe wyceniają WIBOR na poziomie 4,5% na przełomie roku. Rząd próbował opanować sytuację obniżkami akcyzy i VAT na paliwa. Nie pomogło. Drożeją transport, bilety lotnicze, a za kilka miesięcy może drożeć też żywność.</p><p><br /></p><p>Z tego odcinka Ekonomicznie dowiesz się:</p><p>- Dlaczego obniżki stóp procentowych w Polsce to raczej przeszłość?</p><p>- Co zamknięcie Cieśniny Ormuz ma wspólnego z twoim kredytem hipotecznym?</p><p>- Dlaczego rządowy program nie powstrzymał wzrostu inflacji?</p><p>- Skąd na rynku biorą się prognozy trzech podwyżek WIBOR-u jeszcze w tym roku?</p><p>- Czy grozi nam powtórka inflacji z 2022 roku?</p><p>- Jak długo może potrwać konflikt w Iranie?</p><p><br /></p><p>Słuchaj i oglądaj wszędzie tam, gdzie lubisz.Masz pytanie do ekspertów? Możesz je zadać tutaj: <a href="https://tally.so/r/npJBAV">https://tally.so/r/npJBAV</a></p><p><br /></p><p>W aplikacji Voice House Club m.in.:</p><p>✔️ Wszystkie formaty w jednym miejscu</p><p>✔️ Codziennie krótkie newsy, w tym Ekonomicznie in Brief </p><p>✔️ Transkrypcje odcinków Serii in Brief z dodatkowymi materiałami wideo</p><p><br /></p><p>Dołącz: <a href="https://voicehouse.co/sluchasz-i-wiesz/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social">https://voicehouse.co/sluchasz-i-wiesz/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Znajdziesz nas też:</p><p>🍏 Apple Podcasts: <a href="https://bit.ly/EkonomicznieApple">https://bit.ly/EkonomicznieApple </a></p><p>Instagram: <a href="https://www.instagram.com/voicehousepodcast/">https://www.instagram.com/voicehousepodcast/</a> </p><p>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/voicehouse">https://www.linkedin.com/company/voicehouse</a> </p><p>Facebook: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/voicehousepodcast">https://www.facebook.com/voicehousepodcast</a> </p><p>X: <a href="https://x.com/voice_house">https://x.com/voice_house </a></p><p>Strona WWW: <a href="https://voicehouse.co">https://voicehouse.co </a></p><p><br /></p><p>📩 Chcesz nagrać z nami podcast lub nawiązać współpracę?</p><p> Napisz: [email protected]</p><p>#ekonomicznie #ekonomia</p>
Key Insights
- The guest argues that financial markets (via Forward Rate Agreements) are pricing in three interest rate hikes in Poland by year-end, despite official central bank communications containing no mention of increases — suggesting a significant disconnect between market expectations and institutional signaling.
- The speaker contends that Iran's rejection of diplomacy with the U.S. is rooted in a specific historical grievance: a deal reached in July of the previous year was followed by U.S. military bombardment, making Iran unwilling to trust any new agreement with American leadership.
- The guest claims that the U.S. expended more military resources in the Iran conflict in a short period than it did throughout four years of involvement in Ukraine, which the speaker uses to argue that American military capacity is temporarily constrained and contributes to the prolonged stalemate.
- The speaker argues that Poland's early-April CPN program — which reduced fuel taxes and temporarily lowered pump prices by ~1 PLN — failed to suppress April inflation because higher transport costs had already begun spreading to other sectors like air travel and tourism, demonstrating that fuel inflation transmits faster than fiscal interventions can offset.
- The guest distinguishes between the speed of market reactions versus real-economy recovery: if the Strait of Hormuz were unblocked, oil prices and financial markets would react almost immediately, but actual inflation relief would lag due to the time needed to rebuild damaged oil infrastructure and reorganize global shipping logistics.
Topics
Transcript
If someone was waiting for further 100% drops, many point out that it is not yet possible. He will not see lower 100% drops in Poland in the near future. It doesn't mean that they will go up, but if something is to happen to them in the near future, I'm afraid that they will go up faster than down. The market values three 100% increases this year, by the end of the year in Poland. Three. But what about the closed Ormus plant? And the war in Iran has with my credit. You mentioned the prices of fuel a moment ago, and this is the link between the two. Are you, you, society, listener or viewer, or listener, have…
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