Wall Street piège les vendeurs avant la news (explosion en vue)

The analyst begins by discussing technical setup on the S&P 500, noting that the market has recently purged weekly lows through a liquidity grab. The key observation is the formation of a potential breaker block, which if confirmed, would signal an inversion leading to a squeeze of daily highs throughout the week. A green weekly close would indicate expansion in the following week. The analyst suggests that both a strong or weak NFP report would be bullish for markets: strong data supports continued economic growth, while weak data would reduce rate hike probability and allow the Fed to pause. The unemployment rate forecast of 4.1% is expected to have minimal impact. For the VIX, the analyst observes rejection at the weekly summit and expects bullish continuation for equities as long as the VIX doesn't break its weekly high, which would support new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Nasdaq is expected to target all-time highs despite recent rejection at the monthly peak. The Dollar Index has closed an intraday value gap after liquidity intake, potentially signaling consolidation but not derailing the index uptrend. The Russell and Dow Jones are noted as being more impacted, with the Russell likely to retest lows. Gold is forming an ascending hollow and may experience a small rebound representing a contraction phase before continuing its downtrend, particularly if the dollar remains strong. Oil shows no breakout from its range with minor bearish flow but no imminent reversal signals. European indices are under pressure: the CAC is heading toward identified support zones in the 7400-7200 point range with no current signs of strength, while the DAX is retracing less severely and may be a better setup given its relative strength. The analyst concludes by noting that markets appear to be pricing in recession already with an 11% decline, and further recovery to 15-20% down would reflect normal recession pricing.