Si Bitcoin casse maintenant, le bullrun peut démarrer (attention)
A technical analysis of Bitcoin's attempt to break through major resistance at the last descending peak from the bear market, with discussion of how NFP data and US indices movements could catalyze a bullish breakout toward $100,000+ by end of Q4.
Summary
The speaker conducts a comprehensive technical analysis of Bitcoin's current position, focusing on its attempt to break through a critical weekly/monthly order block resistance zone representing the last descending peak from the bear market. On the macro level, breaking this resistance would target a fair value gap between $101,000-$108,000 on CME futures by Q4, or roughly $97,000-$103,000 on spot/perpetual markets. However, failure to break could signal consolidation or a bearish quarter with potential downside to $75,000.
The analysis emphasizes the importance of today's NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data and recent economic indicators. Recent PCE and GDP data came in stronger than expected, reducing the probability of rate hikes in October to just 24%, though December expectations remain at 61%. The speaker highlights that the US dollar has broken to new highs and filled all fair value gaps, and that US indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) are showing bullish signals that could benefit Bitcoin.
On the S&P 500, the speaker notes that after hitting lows, the market recovered with strong reaction, suggesting trapped sellers above current peaks. The VIX has recovered its weekly summit before the NFP, indicating the market is not pricing in excessive risk. These factors collectively suggest a potential bullish expansion today that could push Bitcoin toward $88,100 (previous quarter peak on CME) and ultimately break the critical $86,200-$86,300 resistance zone.
The speaker stresses that breaking resistance requires actual acceleration (breaker block) above $90,000, not just touching the level. The analysis warns against a potential false breakout scenario similar to October 2025, where the market rushed to take stops at previous peaks then reversed sharply. The options market shows GEX and DEX rising, supporting prices, with key resistance levels at $86,000-$87,000 and $90,000. Support levels are established at $85,000 and $84,500.
Key Insights
- The current resistance zone at the last descending peak is a weekly/monthly order block, and if Bitcoin forms a breaker block here, the Q4 objective would be to rework the fair value gap zone roughly between $101,000-$108,000 on CME, suggesting Bitcoin around $100,000 by year-end
- Recent strong PCE and GDP data have reduced the probability of October rate hikes to 24% while increasing December expectations to 61%, but the market may interpret both high and low NFP figures positively due to the strong AI narrative dominating market sentiment
- The S&P 500 recovered all stop losses at its weekly lows with strong reaction, suggesting trapped sellers above current peaks, which combined with VIX recovering its weekly summit before NFP indicates a potential bullish expansion today
- A true breakout of resistance requires acceleration (breaker block) significantly above the level like exceeding $90,000, not merely touching it; taking stops and re-entering ranges could resemble October 2025's false breakout that marked the top
- Options market GEX and DEX are rising, with key resistances at $86,000-$87,000 and $90,000, while $85,000 and $84,500 now serve as support levels, with $86,200-$86,300 being the critical zone that absolutely must be broken to avoid a cash grab at quarter start
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] Bitcoin is currently trying to break through its major resistance, the last descending peak we saw in this bear market. The question is, will we succeed ? We'll also be talking about the NFP today. This is extremely important data. Just before we begin, I'd like to remind you that OKX offers you 8% on your deposits. This is the first link in the pinned comment to benefit from it. You have less than a week left to take advantage of the offer. I would also like to remind you that you can no longer trade on Binance because they have not received Mika's approval. So now is a good time to switch to OK X, which has all…
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