TechnicalOpinion

Explosion ou chute BRUTALE à Wall Street ? (je te dis tout)

Crypto Le Trone

The analyst discusses potential market movements ahead of PCE inflation data release, noting suspicious activity on Bitcoin's options market suggesting bullish positioning. He maintains an overall bullish bias for US indices while acknowledging a 50/50 scenario for today's trading, with key technical levels on the S&P 500 and analysis of related assets including the dollar, gold, and European indices.

Summary

The video opens with promotional content for OKX (8% deposit yield) and Wix trading tournament before diving into market analysis centered on the Core PCE figures being released today. The analyst examines technical patterns across multiple asset classes. On Bitcoin, he notes an unusual explosion of over $2 billion in DEX (options market) activity, suggesting some traders may have advance knowledge of PCE publication, though he observes no comparable movement on S&P 500 or Nasdaq options. For US indices, the analyst explains that the market has been constrained within Monday's candle since a drop that recovered liquidity at Monday's low point. He speculates bullishly but acknowledges the market hasn't risen pre-PCE, providing no clear directional signals. The S&P 500 remains below the weekly low, which he identifies as the next target needed for bullish continuation. The dollar has already reached its quarterly high before PCE release, suggesting potential weakness ahead. The analyst theorizes this could result in a bearish dollar day but bullish day for risk assets. VIX shows no stress signals, maintaining market calm. He assesses the situation as 50/50 but ultimately remains bullish long-term, expecting new all-time highs in Q4. Regarding rate expectations, he notes oil price declines have reduced October rate hike probability to 47%, with markets now pricing in potential hikes in December 2024 and possibly January/March 2027. He attributes Trump's oil strategy to containing prices within a range to manage inflation pressure. In gold analysis, the asset has met its weekly fair value gap target with a filled Fair Value Gap, remaining under bearish signals with possible orbital reversal signals. Gold is range-bound between major levels, specifically the 38.2% retracement of a 20-30 year movement, with deeper retracements potentially reaching below $3,500 in 2027 if support breaks. European indices show continued weakness: the CAC remains in Orbis bearish cycle with potential support levels around 776 points coinciding with the Iran conflict historical level. The DAX is consolidating with no new bullish signals, potentially heading lower depending on monthly close action.

Key Insights

  • Bitcoin's DEX (options market) experienced an explosion of over $2 billion in activity, suggesting some traders may have had advance awareness of PCE data publication, though comparable movement was absent in S&P 500 and Nasdaq options markets
  • The US dollar has already reached its quarterly high before PCE figures were released, theoretically positioning it for a setback and potentially creating conditions for a bearish dollar day coupled with bullish movement in risk assets
  • Oil price declines within their established range have reduced the probability of an October Federal Reserve rate hike to 47%, shifting market expectations toward potential hikes in December 2024 and January or March 2027
  • Gold has achieved its weekly fair value gap target and filled the Fair Value Gap, with the price consolidating between two major technical levels representing the 38.2% retracement of a 20-30 year downward movement
  • The CAC index is in a bearish cycle with potential support at 776 points that coincides with a historically significant price level from the Iran conflict period, which the analyst considers an important protected level for observation

Topics

PCE inflation data impact on marketsBitcoin options market unusual activityS&P 500 technical analysis and resistance levelsUS Dollar weakness and quarterly highsFederal Reserve rate hike probability adjustmentsGold price consolidation and support levelsEuropean indices (CAC, DAX) bearish signalsOil price range management and Trump strategyVIX and market stress indicators

Transcript

[0:00] Today, the Cor PCE figures are being published. This is going to be quite important for the US indices. Are we still heading towards new HUDs? That's what we're going to analyze today. Just before we begin, I remind you that OKX offers you 8% on your deposits. This is the first link in the pinned comment to benefit from it. Then all you have to do is click on join now. Create your account, deposit your USDT, convert them to USDC for free. This will allow you to recover 8% of it as well as access to the VIP group. I'll talk about it right after this. Wix has also launched a tournament. This is the second link…

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