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Evan Vanderveer (Vanshap Capital): MELI, KSPI, and NU

Value Hive Podcast45m 1s

Evan Vanderveer of Vanshap Capital discusses his investment philosophy centered on "customer fanatics"—founder-controlled businesses obsessed with long-term customer satisfaction—and presents three investment ideas: MercadoLibre (e-commerce and fintech platform in Latin America trading at historically low multiples despite strong fundamentals), Kaspi (Kazakhstan's super app with 2/3 daily user penetration and expansion into Turkey), and Nu Holdings (Brazil's largest digital bank expanding into Mexico and the US).

Summary

Evan Vanderveer founded Vanshap Capital in 2012 with a partner, starting with deep value investing in underappreciated international markets before evolving in 2020 to focus on "customer fanatics"—founder-controlled businesses where management prioritizes customer satisfaction over quarterly earnings. The firm operates with just six highly concentrated holdings based on the principle that such quality businesses are extremely rare and difficult to identify through screening alone.

On MercadoLibre, Vanderveer argues the market underestimates the company despite its massive growth. Revenue has grown 6x and operating income from $100M to $3-4B over six years, yet the stock is unchanged since July 2024 while GMV is up 51%, active buyers 57%, and payment volume 180%. The market has focused on margin compression from reinvestment cycles and competition from Shopee in Brazil, but Vanderveer believes margins will normalize as they have historically. MercadoLibre is not merely an Amazon clone but a platform combining e-commerce (MercadoLibre) and payments/fintech (MercadoPago) with logistics, now trading at its lowest EBIT multiple ever despite 30%+ revenue growth over seven years.

On Kaspi, Vanderveer describes it as Kazakhstan's "super app" founded by Mikael Lomtadze, a founder-CEO who exemplifies customer obsession—famously shutting down an entire credit card business due to low net promoter scores. The company serves two-thirds of Kazakhstan's 21 million population daily, with high market shares across e-commerce, payments, and lending. Trading at 6-7x forward earnings with a 10% dividend yield, bears worry about market saturation in Kazakhstan and geopolitical risk from the Ukraine-Russia war, but Vanderveer views the Turkey expansion (through controlling stake in Hepzibah) as option value. The main competitive moat is the payment system—Kaspi virtually kicked Visa and Mastercard out of Kazakhstan, which Vanderveer claims is unprecedented globally.

On Nu Holdings, Vanderveer presents it as a digital bank founded by David Velez (former Sequoia investor) that operates entirely through apps with no physical branches, making it the world's largest digital bank by customer count. With 18% efficiency ratio versus 40-60% for legacy Brazilian banks, Nu has grown from $1B to $10B in revenue over five years while expanding to Mexico (now profitable and potentially larger than Brazil) and Colombia, plus a nascent US expansion. The company boasts some of the world's highest net promoter scores (96% in one Mexican product) and generates 85% of revenue from interest on unsecured lending rather than fees, supported by analytics infrastructure built by Capital One founders. At current valuations, Vanderveer projects 7x forward 2029 earnings.

Vanderveer explains that customer fanatics are identified not through quantitative screens but through intensive ground research—visiting companies, meeting employees, building networks of local investors, and assessing culture rather than machinery. The firm spent months before investing and maintains very low portfolio turnover. He acknowledges the risk of sunk cost bias with such concentrated holdings but says the team tries to maintain a "liquid mind" and continuously underwrite positions three to five years out. The firms also note that founder control is almost essential—they've passed on numerous attractive businesses without active founder involvement, believing cultural insurance through founder alignment is irreplaceable. Notably, several of these businesses operate in out-of-favor markets (Kazakhstan, Brazil, Latin America) where institutional capital has limited interest, creating pricing inefficiencies.

About this episode

<p>I hope you enjoy this podcast with Evan Vanderveer, founder of Vanshap Capital. Vanshap invests in founder-led businesses that focus on Customer Fanaticism. </p><p>We discuss three of Evan's core holdings: </p><p>1. Kaspi (KSPI)</p><p>2. Nu Holdings (NU)</p><p>3. Mercado Libre (MELI)</p><p>PLEASE NOTE THAT NOTHING IS INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN WORK. NOTHING IS ADVICE ON THIS PODCAST. THIS IS FOR EDUCATION AND ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY</p>

Key Insights

  • Vanderveer argues that MercadoLibre's stock has been unchanged since July 2024 despite revenue up 96%, GMV up 51%, and payment volume up 180%, which he attributes entirely to multiple compression driven by temporary margin pressure from reinvestment cycles rather than deteriorating fundamentals.
  • The firm claims that identifying 'customer fanatics' cannot be screened quantitatively but requires months of ground research including site visits, employee interactions, and network development, making it a strategy that cannot be easily replicated by index investors or traditional quant funds.
  • Vanderveer asserts that Kaspi virtually kicked Visa and Mastercard out of Kazakhstan—something he claims has never happened in any other country—demonstrating an extraordinary competitive moat built through customer obsession rather than traditional network effects.
  • The founder argues that founder control is nearly mandatory for customer fanatic businesses because it allows managers to take true long-term views and shut down entire business lines (as Kaspi did with credit cards due to low NPS) without pressure from quarterly earnings expectations.
  • Vanderveer contends that Nu Holdings' digital-only model achieves an 18% efficiency ratio compared to 40-60% for traditional Brazilian banks, suggesting a structural cost advantage from eliminating physical infrastructure that creates genuine competitive moat.
  • The manager claims that the market has collectively missed that these three businesses operate in out-of-favor geographies (Kazakhstan, Brazil, Latin America), causing institutional capital to ignore them despite superior fundamentals, creating pricing inefficiencies.
  • Vanderveer argues that multiple compression across MercadoLibre, Kaspi, and similar businesses was driven by exogenous factors (Ukraine war, high interest rates, Shopee competition, AI obsession) rather than business deterioration, creating opportunity as these headwinds normalize.
  • The firm believes that founder-led businesses in traditional industries (like their Irish homebuilder holding) can still exemplify customer fanatic principles, challenging the assumption that platform/tech businesses are required for superior long-term returns.

Topics

Customer fanatic investing philosophyFounder-controlled business selection criteriaMercadoLibre valuation and competitive positioningKaspi as Kazakhstan super appNu Holdings digital banking expansionPlatform business modelsEmerging market investingDeep value international equity strategy

Transcript

All right. I've got a new guest on the podcast, Evan Vanderveer of Vanshap Capital. We're going to discuss three ideas, Melly, Caspi, and New Holdings, three of which I know really nothing about. I kind of know Caspi. I was doing a little bit of a deep dive into Kazakhstan, but that's purely on the mining side. So I guess Caspi is like the super app of Kazakhstan is pretty much all I know it as. But before we dive into the specific stocks, Evan, let's get a background on kind of who you are, what your investing philosophy is and how that philosophy has been shaped over the years. Evan Brand Yeah. Well, Brandon, thanks so much for…

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