Value Hive Podcast

Gavin McCracken, a PhD in AI and commodities investor, discusses how AI is solving mathematical conjectures through search rather than true intelligence, predicts a major commodity supercycle driven by robotics demand, and analyzes geopolitical risks in oil markets including potential Trump export bans and escalating tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Q2 2026 investor audibles highlight the performance and outlook of Hirschmann Capital, One Main Capital, and Third Point, focusing on their strategies in response to current economic conditions. Each fund manager discusses their respective investment themes, challenges, and expected market movements particularly regarding equities, gold, and AI technology.

Gavin McCracken discusses his journey to achieving a 2000x return primarily through concentrated positions in Andean Precious Metals and Velour Energy, emphasizing the importance of commodity cycle timing, low-cost operators, strong management conviction (evidenced by insider buying), and protective position sizing. He contrasts his speculative, concentrated approach with a more diversified value investing methodology, and explains his current thesis on oil (via Suncor) and gold miners (via Monera Alamos) based on geopolitical supply disruptions and fuel crises.

Jeremy Raper discusses AI's application in special situations and legal work, the cyclicality of semiconductor/memory companies despite post-cyclical narratives, and specific investment opportunities in Australian small-cap markets where professional coverage is sparse.

Evan Vanderveer of Vanshap Capital discusses his investment philosophy centered on "customer fanatics"—founder-controlled businesses obsessed with long-term customer satisfaction—and presents three investment ideas: MercadoLibre (e-commerce and fintech platform in Latin America trading at historically low multiples despite strong fundamentals), Kaspi (Kazakhstan's super app with 2/3 daily user penetration and expansion into Turkey), and Nu Holdings (Brazil's largest digital bank expanding into Mexico and the US).

C.D., a biotech investor who achieved a 35x return in 2025 through a combination of common stock, covered calls, and put-writing strategies, discusses how he entered the biotech space despite lacking a science background, explains his process for identifying undervalued opportunities, and identifies emerging themes like neurological diseases, cardiovascular space, and rare disease gene therapy as the most promising areas in biotech.

Peter Mantas discusses the current state and future potential of the biotech market, emphasizing the importance of AI-driven drug discovery and platform companies. He identifies key investment strategies and the role of political dynamics in shaping biotechnology outcomes.

This transcript covers two Q1 2026 investor letters: SaltLight Capital discusses their long-term investment philosophy and portfolio companies in building/investment cycles, while Blue Tower Asset Management details the geopolitical and commodity market consequences of a 2026 U.S.-Israel-Iran military conflict that has severely disrupted global energy and commodity supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Rebecca Hunter, VP of Exploration at Forum Energy, discusses her career journey from Saskatchewan through Cameco to Forum Energy, covering uranium exploration methodology, the impact of Fukushima on the industry, and the current uranium market dynamics. She provides detailed insights into exploration processes, drilling economics, and how to evaluate junior uranium exploration companies.

Josh Crumb, CEO and founder of Abaxx Technologies, discusses his background in mining engineering and commodity markets, his experience at Goldman Sachs and with the Lundin family, and the rationale behind building Abaxx — a greenfield commodity exchange and clearinghouse based in Singapore focused on LNG, battery metals, carbon credits, and gold.

A review of Q1 2026 investor letters from three funds—Gator Capital, Rowan Street Capital, and Third Point Capital—covering performance results, portfolio changes, and investment theses amid market volatility driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict, AI disruption fears, and private credit stress. Gator underperformed the broader market but outperformed financial sector benchmarks, Rowan Street declined 19.8%, and Third Point was down only 0.6%. Each fund provided detailed rationale for key positions and portfolio adjustments.

Oliver Friesen, founder and CEO of Guardian Metals, discusses the tungsten market, its critical importance to U.S. national security, and his company's two Nevada-based tungsten projects. He covers the supply chain risks from China's dominance, the DOD's growing investment in domestic critical minerals, and the broader shift in investor sentiment toward U.S. mining.

Brian Leeners, CEO of Home Run Resources, discusses his company's vertically integrated high-purity silica sand mining operation in Brazil's Bahia state, explaining how their exceptionally low-iron silica (under 10 ppm) positions them uniquely for solar glass production and advanced technology markets. The conversation covers silica's underappreciated role across solar, photonics, AI, and semiconductor supply chains, and why ex-Chinese silica assets are strategically important. Leeners argues Home Run can compress the typical 15-20 year mine development timeline into 3-5 years through creative capital deployment and vertical integration.

Open Square Capital (Nelson Wu) returned 47.7% in Q1 2026 driven by oil positions amid a U.S.-Iran war that closed the Strait of Hormuz, creating a massive supply shock estimated at 700-800 million barrels lost. JDP Capital (Jeremy Deal) was down 15.1% but sees extreme fear as a buying opportunity, initiating a position in MercadoLibre while exiting Caesars Entertainment over governance concerns.

Jason Jessup, CEO of Magna Mining, discusses the company's rapid growth from 25 to 200+ employees, the discovery of a high-grade copper-gold R2 zone, and the multi-pillar strategy of production, exploration, and acquisition across Sudbury's mining district. The conversation covers operational culture, nickel market dynamics, financing strategy, and Magna's ambition to become a major Canadian mining company with four to five producing mines.

Gavin McCracken, an AI PhD student, achieved a 2000x return on his account by concentrating heavily in specific commodity plays, notably Andean Precious Metals during the gold bull market. He emphasizes timing commodity cycles, finding low-cost producers with strong management, and using leverage strategically while protecting downside risk.

Will Thomson discusses how geopolitical volatility affects natural resources investing, then analyzes CVW Sustainable Royalties' business model of financing clean tech companies in exchange for perpetual revenue royalties. He concludes by explaining his research on commodity purity index, which shows most commodity stocks are less correlated to underlying commodity prices than investors assume.

Harris Kupperman discusses his bullish thesis on Brazil ahead of elections, arguing that Latin America is shifting right politically while Brazil remains undervalued. He also covers his Hong Kong investments, disappointments in his 2024 performance despite getting major themes right, and critiques of current global economic policies.

Calvin Froedge discusses the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its massive economic implications, arguing that markets are severely underpricing this geopolitical crisis. He views this as potentially the most significant economic event in American history, comparable to 1970s energy crises.

Three investment fund managers discuss their Q4 2024 performance and outlook, focusing on shifts from US tech dominance to international markets and physical assets. All three emphasize opportunities in undervalued sectors while noting concerns about AI disruption to software companies and currency devaluation risks.