Fake Topps relics?? And a deep dive on MLB HOF potential!
Two sports card enthusiasts discuss a potentially fraudulent Ronald Acuña Topps relic card and conduct an extensive analysis of MLB Hall of Fame candidacy for current and recent players, debating which players are sure bets, probable inductees, and unlikely candidates based on career statistics and achievements.
Summary
The episode opens with discussion of a controversial 2024 Topps Transcendent Seasons Ronald Acuña card claiming to contain relics from his 40-home run, 70+ stolen base season. The hosts identify a major authentication problem: the batting gloves allegedly from this season were sold at Golden auctions in April with MLB certification, yet Topps claims to have provided relics directly from Acuña's collection. This raises questions about whether Acuña, Topps, or the authentication process failed, with hosts concluding that at least one party is either lying or has made a significant error.
The bulk of the episode focuses on ranking current and recent MLB players by Hall of Fame probability. Confirmed Hall of Famers include Mike Trout (first-ballot lock), Justin Verlander (first-ballot lock), Mookie Betts (absolutely certain), and Max Scherzer (definitely inducted). The hosts discuss Freddie Freeman as a 95% lock given his 67 WAR, MVP award, World Series MVP, 10 All-Star appearances, and status as an active leader in multiple categories.
For likely inductees, they analyze players like Juan Soto (certain assuming no cliff-fall, despite having played for multiple teams and being underrated), Judge (three-time MVP, 65 WAR, home run record holder), Paul Goldschmidt (65 WAR but declining recently), Manny Machado (63 WAR as shortstop/third baseman, probably 50/50 if retired today), and Chris Sale (63 WAR, Cy Young winner at age 37, comeback story raising PED questions).
For probable but not certain inductees, they discuss Nolan Arenado (61 WAR, 10 Gold Gloves, 8 All-Star selections—statistically likely), Jose Ramirez (60 WAR, close to 300-300 club, only 33 years old), Francisco Lindor (57 WAR, 300 home runs but not 300-300), Bryce Harper (57 WAR, two MVP awards, but with extreme ups-and-downs between 10 WAR and 1.6 WAR seasons), and Jacob deGrom (50 WAR, two Cy Young Awards but injury-plagued with only three truly dominant seasons).
Uncertain or unlikely candidates include Jose Altuve (53 WAR, MVP award, but as the face of the 2017 sign-stealing scandal and only 5'6"), Corey Seager (quietly built great career but lacks MVP-level seasons), Gerrit Cole (46 WAR, one Cy Young—lower tier for modern era), Giancarlo Stanton (used to be certain but has done nothing since 2021), Rafael Devers (only 29, recent comeback but inconsistent), and Pete Alonso (307 home runs at 31, likely needs 500 to have chance—5 years away).
The hosts discuss emerging players: Bobby Witt Jr. (29 WAR at 26, too early but on trajectory), Julio Rodriguez (25 WAR at 25, inconsistent recent performance), Kyle Schwarber (385 home runs, needs 115 more to reach 500—uncertain at age 34), and Salvador Perez (catcher with 324 home runs, multiple Gold Gloves and All-Star selections, interesting case but likely not enough).
On closers, the hosts correct their initial underestimation: Aroldis Chapman (400 saves, ninth all-time, definitely inducted), Kenley Jansen (498-500 saves, third all-time, definitely inducted), and Craig Kimbrel (fifth all-time in saves, also sure bet). John Franco (seventh in saves) didn't make it, showing that save totals alone aren't determinative.
The discussion includes a preamble about 1990s-2000s elite pitchers (Clemens, Maddux, Pedro, Randy Johnson as top tier; Glavine, Smoltz, Mussina in second tier), with hosts ranking them differently based on career achievement versus peak dominance—Clemens first by career totals, but Pedro chosen for single elimination game at peak.
Key Insights
- The Topps Ronald Acuña relic card presents an authentication crisis: the batting gloves were sold at Golden auctions in April with MLB certification, yet Topps claims the relics came directly from Acuña's collection, meaning at least one party is either lying or failed to verify, raising questions about Topps' first-party authentication claims.
- Mike Trout's first ten seasons are compared to no other player—ranked top-5 MVP nine times, top-2 six times, with three MVP awards and equivalent black ink achievements, making him an absolute lock for first-ballot Hall of Fame induction with no room for argument.
- Freddie Freeman with 67 WAR, one MVP award, World Series MVP, 10 All-Star appearances, and current league leadership in games played, hits, doubles, and RBIs represents a player that has no precedent—no player with these credentials has ever been excluded from Hall of Fame, making him 95% certain.
- Chris Sale's late-career resurgence at age 37 with Cy Young-winning season (18-3, 2.38 ERA, elite WHIP) after missing significant time raises PED suspicions; his 63 WAR career total and all-time best strikeout-to-walk ratio make him likely for induction despite only three dominant seasons.
- Save totals alone are not deterministic for closer Hall of Fame induction—John Franco ranks seventh all-time in saves but wasn't inducted, while Aroldis Chapman (400 saves, ninth all-time), Kenley Jansen (500 saves, third all-time), and Craig Kimbrel (fifth all-time) are all certain inductees, suggesting other factors matter significantly.
Topics
Transcript
[0:06] This week's sports cards. Is this new? Yes, it's completely new. And what's interesting is that you can see your face when it's played back. At first, they seemed happy, but when it changed to a teapot, they seemed to say, " Hold on a minute." He is my arch-nemesis. That's an interesting introduction . This is your first time playing it, right [0:37] ? thank you. I did this with a teapot two weeks ago as well . Thank you for watching. Yeah. Yes, of course. I don't look at that idiot. I know . I know. You and the teapot have never met before, right ? Yes, we only met in person for about 10 seconds .…
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