DiscussionOpinion

David Chase UNLOADS On The Future Of PSA Slabs!!

Sports Card Clubhouse58m 23s

David Chase discusses his experience selling a Barry Bonds 1999 Skybox Molten Metal Fusion card that tripled in value within 40 days, then pivots to a broader critique of PSA grading inconsistency and subjective grade premiums, arguing that high-grade cards carry disproportionate price markups that may not reflect true value differences.

Summary

The episode opens with David Chase sharing a detailed personal story about purchasing a 1999 Skybox Molten Metal Fusion Sterling Barry Bonds card (unnumbered) for $400 at a card show. He initially wasn't interested in buying from that dealer but was captivated by the card's design featuring a silhouette cutout of Greg Maddux. After researching the set and finding similar cards (unnumbered Kobe and Jordan versions) selling for thousands, Chase decided to pursue the Bonds card. He eventually found one on PSA's platform for $400 in PSA 8 condition and purchased it, but mistakenly sent it to his safe deposit box instead of his home, causing confusion about its whereabouts. After the National Sports Collectors Convention, he decided to list the card on eBay through PSA for $660 as a Buy It Now and sold it, netting $580 after fees. However, approximately 40 days later, an identical PSA 8 version of the same card appeared on auction at $1,926 with 100 watchers and 2.5 hours remaining—roughly tripling Chase's selling price.

This experience leads Chase into a comprehensive discussion about PSA grading inconsistency and the problematic price premiums associated with fractional grade differences. He argues that grades are opinions from specific reviewers on specific days, not objective measurements. Using a Hank Aaron card as an example, Chase demonstrates how average prices vary dramatically: a PSA 7 averages $16,600, a PSA 7.5 averages $30,000, and a PSA 8 averages $48,000. He contends that the same physical card could receive different grades if resubmitted multiple times, meaning collectors are paying massive premiums (potentially $120,000 differences between 8.5 and 9) for subjective opinions that may not hold up to future re-evaluation or if grading standards change. Chase expresses particular concern about high-grade vintage cards with old certificates, suggesting that many high-quality vintage cards have lower grades than their appearance might suggest because modern grading standards are stricter than historical ones. He argues that if PSA ever loses market dominance or standards are re-evaluated, collectors holding high-grade cards could suffer catastrophic losses.

Greg Miller presents counterarguments, noting that historically, buying the highest-grade cards has proven profitable (Jordan 10s have outperformed Jordan 9s), and suggesting that early highly-graded cards earned their grades because the finest examples were graded first in the hobby's history. He also questions whether collectors should avoid high-quality cards altogether, noting that people legitimately prefer cards with good centering and clean corners. The conversation explores the potential for AI-based grading technology to disrupt the current PSA-dependent market, with Chase arguing this is inevitable and comparing it to how self-driving cars and Netflix disrupted Blockbuster Video. He suggests that PSA's inconsistency, slow turnaround times, and unwillingness to acknowledge potential authentication issues make them vulnerable to disruption by a technology-based competitor.

The episode concludes with David and Greg each recommending cards: David recommends the 1948 Leaf Babe Ruth (arguing it's superior to the more expensive Goudey versions), which Greg rejects because Ruth didn't actually play in the Leaf set and calls the inclusion a "money grab" gimmick. Greg counter-recommends the 1986 Topps Jerry Rice rookie, positioning it as an affordable grail card representing the true GOAT of football, available in good condition for reasonable prices. The banter includes a humorous interruption from Joe Perrault calling in, and the episode ends with David giving it an "A+" rating despite disagreeing with Greg's card recommendation.

About this episode

Graig of @MidLifeCards and David Chase of @SportsCardsLive discuss the the sports card hobby in their biweekly episode of MidLife Card Chase. In this episode, David gives his blunt predictions about the future of PSA slabbed cards, and he doesn't hold back.

Key Insights

  • David Chase sold a Barry Bonds PSA 8 card for $580 net (after $80 fees) on August 5th, only to see the identical card listed 40 days later at $1,926 with 100 watchers still bidding—a tripling of value in less than six weeks.
  • Chase argues that PSA grade differences carry disproportionate premiums: a Hank Aaron card shows an average PSA 7 costs $16,600, PSA 7.5 costs $30,000, and PSA 8 costs $48,000, yet the same physical card could receive different grades upon resubmission.
  • Chase contends that many old-certificate high-grade vintage cards are inconsistently graded compared to modern standards, and that dealers routinely resubmit valuable old-certificate cards in new slabs to command higher prices because buyers are deceived by the packaging appearance.
  • Chase predicts that PSA could be disrupted by AI-based grading technology capable of consistently rating the same card identically across multiple submissions, which could expose previously inflated valuations of high-grade cards.
  • Chase demonstrates that the price difference between a PSA 8.5 and PSA 9 Hank Aaron averages $384,000 versus $167,000—a $217,000 swing for half a grade point—yet there's no way to visually distinguish which grade a card truly deserves.
  • Chase warns that if 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan 10s were repeatedly resubmitted until achieving 10s (many submitted 17+ times), most current 10-graded Jordans are likely cards that received a 9 on initial submission and eventually hit the 10 through multiple attempts.
  • Greg Miller counters that historically high-grade cards have provided the best returns (Jordan 10s outperformed Jordan 9s), and early highly-graded vintage cards earned their grades because the finest examples were graded first when the hobby prioritized only the best specimens.
  • Chase compares the current PSA dominance to Blockbuster Video's market position before Netflix—arguing that PSA's consistent problems (slow turnaround, inconsistent grading, refusal to acknowledge authentication issues) create vulnerability to disruption by a superior technology-based competitor.

Topics

Barry Bonds card value appreciationPSA grading inconsistency and subjectivityPrice premiums for fractional grade differencesOld vs. new PSA certificate quality and standardsMarket disruption by AI-based grading technologyVintage card grading standards evolutionHigh-grade card investment risksCard collecting philosophy and recommendations

Transcript

[0:00] Sports talk, sports talk, sports talk, hobby all day, wax, backpacks, big pulls and cons we discuss. So, turn it up, let the intro play. You're rocking the midlife car chase now. The David chase. What's up, brother? Hey, what's up, Greg Miller? Let's do it . I mean, I just do my job, do my card stuff, just one day at a time, man . Are you telling yourself that now? One day at a time . Shall we take the steps? [0:30] I mean, hey, everything's fine, dude. Everything is fine. There's just so much that's fantastic. If I were bored, I would complain that I was bored. I know you're not complaining these days because I…

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