Les marchés du lundi : Hormuz, Warsh, l'or qui décroche
A French financial market commentary covering Monday, August 31st, discussing the fallout from Jackson Hole, geopolitical tensions with Iran, rising interest rate expectations (now 90% probability), and consolidation in major markets including weakness in precious metals, mixed European performance, and upcoming economic data releases.
Summary
The host opens Monday's market analysis with commentary on the implications of Jackson Hole meetings and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's messaging. Key takeaway: Warsh signaled the Fed will not provide forward guidance but will react to incoming economic data, particularly on inflation. Despite summer's positive inflation surprises, Warsh emphasized the underlying inflation trend has not improved significantly, suggesting the Fed has more work to do. This has shifted market expectations dramatically—market pricing now shows 90% probability of at least one rate hike by year-end, with some expecting two or three additional hikes, moving away from earlier rate-cut expectations. Interest rates on 5-year and 10-year Treasuries have risen accordingly, supporting the US dollar and pressuring precious metals (gold down nearly 3% Friday, another 1% Monday morning).
Geopolitical tensions add weight to markets: US strikes destroyed two Iranian rocket launchers in the Strait of Hormuz last night—the first direct engagement since late July—contributing to upward pressure on oil prices and general market consolidation. Futures in the US are slightly in the red, though the Kospi in South Korea is only down 1%.
Regarding specific equities: Stripe abandoned its $53 billion acquisition by PayPal (which fell 13% Friday); Gap beat adjusted earnings expectations and raised guidance; Nvidia published record results with doubled year-over-year revenue but provided reassuring forward guidance, though the stock gave back 9% in gains by Friday, losing 5% overall; Star Entertainment in Australia reported worse-than-expected annual losses with profit warnings; and GM Canada workers approved an agreement for a new heavy truck factory.
Key economic events this week: Broadcom and Dell earnings; Wednesday's initial jobless claims (ADP employment); Friday's non-farm payroll (NFP) data. These employment figures are critical for Warsh's decision-making on rate hikes anticipated for September.
Technical levels: DAX at highs, CAC40 weakened over 1.5% Thursday, pulling back to 7,330 (a 2-year high that served as resistance). The 8,400 level represents 50% retracement of Thursday's decline; breaking below 8,330 would be concerning. Gold is consolidating after the recent sell-off; the host had profit-taking targets around 4,074-4,008 but exited at 4,697. EUR/USD remains under downward pressure due to rising rates. The high-yield spread (ICE BofA US High Yield Index) sits around 2.6%—still relatively low, indicating no current stress, though spreads exceeding 3-4% would signal crisis conditions. Bitcoin consolidates laterally above $75,000.
The host's concluding message emphasizes discipline and intention over reactive trading: respect your investment plan, monitor conditions without forced action, and make small deliberate adjustments rather than revolutionary changes. He ties this to personal resilience, referencing the UTMB race winner Blondine who achieved success despite self-doubt, illustrating the importance of self-trust and recognizing those who support your journey. The message: focus on proactive execution of existing plans rather than creating artificial urgency.
About this episode
<p>Frappe US sur l'Iran, virage faucon de Warsh qui casse le rallye de l'or en une séance, PayPal qui lâche, Gap qui explose. Tout ce qui compte avant le NFP de vendredi, expliqué, pas juste balancé.</p><br /><p><br /></p><p><strong>🎙️ Morning Mood : Le podcast quotidien de Xavier Fenaux</strong> </p><p><em>Macro, marchés, mindset. Chaque matin. Sans filtre.</em></p><p>Chaque jour, j'allume le micro pour remettre de l'ordre dans le bruit : indices, cryptos, Fed, actualité macro et surtout comment garder la tête froide et un plan solide quand les marchés s'emballent.</p><p>20 ans sur les marchés.</p><p>Certifié AMF et ARPP, associé InteractivTrading, Ex chef analyste ZoneBourse. Finaliste Talents du Trading. L'objectif n'est pas de te dire quoi faire. C'est de te montrer comment penser.</p><br /><p><strong>📬 Me contacter</strong> Morning Mood (réactions, suggestions) → <a href="mailto:[email protected]" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">[email protected]</a></p><p>Contact professionnel (interviews, partenariats) → <a href="mailto:[email protected]" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">[email protected]</a></p><br /><p><strong>🎤 Participer à l'interview du samedi matin</strong> </p><p>Le samedi, le Morning Mood peut accueillir un invité en format podcast (~1h).</p><p>Tu veux partager ton profil, ton expérience ou ton regard sur les marchés ?</p><p>👉 Présente-toi directement ici : <a href="https://xavierfenaux.com/#interview-morning-mood" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://xavierfenaux.com/#interview-morning-mood</a></p><br /><p><strong>📍 Retrouve-moi ici</strong> </p><p>🌐 Site perso & podcast : <a href="https://xavierfenaux.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://xavierfenaux.com</a> </p><p>👑 Communauté IVT (Je partage mes analyses, positions, plans d'investissement et de Trading) : <a href="https://interactivtrading.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://interactivtrading.com</a></p><p>📺 YouTube Débrief Hebdo chaque samedi 10h : <a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/InteractivTrading" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/c/InteractivTrading</a> </p><p>🟣 Twitch : Lives marchés : <a href="https://www.twitch.tv/xavierfenaux" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.twitch.tv/xavierfenaux</a> </p><p>🎵 Spotify : <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/4Kka5gOG1cnplAmHB0vGXD" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://open.spotify.com/show/4Kka5gOG1cnplAmHB0vGXD</a> </p><p>🐦 X (Twitter) : <a href="https://twitter.com/XFenaux" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/XFenaux</a></p><br /><p><strong>🔔 Abonne-toi pour ne jamais rater un Morning Mood.</strong> Chaque matin compte. Chaque décision aussi.</p><p><em>xavier</em></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hébergé par Acast. Visitez <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> pour plus d'informations.</p>
Key Insights
- Fed Chair Warsh signaled a shift toward data-dependent reactions rather than forward guidance, explicitly stating the Fed will only adjust policy based on real incoming data, moving away from predictable policy frameworks.
- Market expectations for rate hikes have shifted dramatically to 90% probability of at least one hike by year-end, despite earlier summer rate-cut expectations, driven by Warsh's indication that underlying inflation remains elevated despite recent good surprises.
- The speaker argues that employment data (ADP Wednesday and NFP Friday) are more important than Treasury yield movements for determining Fed action, as they directly inform Warsh's decision-making on September rate hikes.
- High-yield corporate credit spreads at 2.6% indicate no current financial stress despite rising rates, and the speaker identifies 3-4% spread levels as the true threshold signaling market distress from debt-servicing concerns.
- The speaker contends that reactive trading around earnings announcements (exemplified by Nvidia's 9% post-earnings gain reversed by 5% decline within 24 hours) destroys value, and respecting predetermined plans with appropriate position sizing neutralizes emotional decision-making during volatility.
Topics
Transcript
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