Micron pulvérise tout… et le marché s'en fiche ?!

The host opens a morning market analysis session discussing multiple economic indicators released overnight. On PCE inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure index came in at 3.0% versus expected 3.3%, but this decline is partially due to methodological changes in how portfolio management fees and software prices are calculated—Capital Economics estimates this methodology shift mechanically removed 0.3 percentage points. Core PCE on a 3-month annualized basis fell to 2%, which appears positive, but the underlying dynamic is concerning: consumer spending grew 0.9% monthly while incomes only grew 0.2%, meaning consumers are depleting savings rather than earning their consumption gains. This unsustainable pattern explains why market reactions to the inflation data were limited.

Regarding Federal Reserve rate expectations, probability of an October rate hike fell from 70% a week ago to approximately 37% currently, with Fed officials like John Williams suggesting one rate increase would suffice for the year. However, the bond market is doing the Fed's work independently—the 10-year and 30-year yields continue rising, with 30-year mortgage rates climbing to 7.6%, effectively tightening monetary conditions despite potential Fed pauses.

US GDP for Q2 was revised upward from 1.5% to 2.2% annualized, beating consensus expectations of 1.5%, with Q1 also revised higher. This reflects strength in investment, consumption, and government spending, with private domestic demand (consumption plus private investment) reaching 4.6% versus expected 4.2%. This represents an ideal scenario of high growth with moderating inflation, though it prevents the Fed from cutting rates.

ADP employment data showed 90,000 job creations versus expected 70,000, marking the first acceleration since May. Health and education sectors gained 55,000 jobs while finance and business services destroyed positions. Wage growth for job changers (4.8% annually) exceeds those staying in place (3.2%), suggesting better compensation for mobility. The NFP report expected tomorrow at 90,000 will be crucial—numbers above expectations could reignite October rate hike bets.

Oil remains stable near $100 per barrel with global supply tensions easing slightly as Saudi Arabia restarts production pipelines, though US-Iran negotiations remain blocked.

Eurozone inflation came in above expectations with Spain at 5% (highest since 2023). Eurozone inflation expected tomorrow at 3.6% versus 3.2% previously. The ECB already raised rates to 2.5% deposit rate and will decide again October 29th, the day after the Fed's October 28th decision.

Micron's earnings were exceptional: revenues of $54 billion (versus $51 billion expected), up 5x from $11 billion a year ago; adjusted EPS of $33 versus expected $31; gross margin of 87% versus expected 86.4%; free cash flow of $62 billion for the year. Forward guidance exceeded expectations at $61.5 billion revenue for Q1 2027 (versus $57 billion expected) with 38 dollar EPS (versus expected $36) and 86% gross margins described as the floor. However, market reaction was muted because Micron raised capital expenditure guidance significantly beyond initial plans, with $11.5 billion in Q1 and approximately $25 billion per semester planned, primarily for cleanroom construction available end-2028 onwards. The semiconductor industry is experiencing simultaneous massive capex spending creating supply surplus, pricing pressure, and concerns about capex sustainability. Micron argues these are strategic customer contracts with price floors providing demand visibility through decade-end, suggesting memory is no longer in classical cycles but the duration of scarcity-justified margins remains questionable.

The speaker then transitions to personal trading philosophy and market positioning. The CAC 40 index reached his TP2 swing target at 7,195 (down 10% from 8,700), with a longer-term target around 7,600. He reflects on psychological patterns he observes: many participants are present during rallies but absent during consolidations and reversals; they take profits too quickly on winners while holding oversized losers; they abandon plans after one failure rather than maintaining conviction through temporary setbacks. He emphasizes that holding strong trending assets (S&P 500, Nasdaq) and shorting weak ones (Dow Jones, DAX, CAC) has worked, but requires patience and discipline.

The Euro/Dollar position he's maintained for 18 months is now his most profitable, having fallen from 1.20 to 1.13 (700 pips lower) with continued target of 1.12. He contrasts this with his gold swing trade where he was stopped out after initial success, but maintains he'll consider re-entry if polarities invert, illustrating a 'two cartridges' approach: fail once, try again; fail twice, abandon the thesis. He argues most people abandon plans too early and fear success as much as failure. He stresses that major annual performance comes from holding core positions through drawdowns, not from frequent small scalps. The session concludes with advice to avoid emotional decisions and wait 24 hours when upset, citing how waiting through Fed volatility on Euro/Dollar allowed the position to reach current profitability.