Pétrole à 100 $, OAT à 5%, Nike qui licencie : ça chauffe partout

The speaker opens with motivation to finish the week strong and transitions into a detailed market analysis for Friday, October 2nd. Regarding US economic data, the ISM manufacturing index came in above expectations with expansion (above 50), indicating strong industrial demand despite inflation pressures. The speaker emphasizes that US consumers are drawing down savings to maintain consumption while incomes lag, compensating for slower wage growth. Cost pressures from steel, aluminum, and petroleum products are mounting, and companies are currently able to pass these increases to consumers, which encourages the Federal Reserve to potentially raise rates further. US Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2002, with the 10-year at 5.3% and the 30-year also at new highs. French 10-year OAT yields have climbed to nearly 5% (4.94%), which the speaker identifies as significant and promises to explain in a separate detailed video covering who bears the cost and the implications. The speaker expects today's NFP (non-farm payroll) employment data around 2:30 PM, with estimates around 90,000-95,000 job creations (though some forecasters like Barclays predict 50,000). Key metrics to watch include the unemployment rate (expected to remain stable at 4.1%) and average hourly wage growth (expected at +0.3%), as higher wage inflation would likely trigger Fed rate increases by late October or early December. The US dollar remains under sustained upward pressure, reaching multi-month highs on the speaker's preferred equal-weighted index, aligning with targets set for 2025-2026. The speaker notes achieving previous targets on EUR/USD (selling at 1.20, reaching 1.21, and targeting 1.12) and plans to take some profits near current levels after holding positions against market noise. Oil prices have recovered to around $100/barrel on Brent crude with no real relief, though supply measures (reopened pipelines from Saudi Arabia, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns) have prevented further escalation. Regarding France's 2027 budget proposal, the government is targeting €43 billion in new fiscal measures, including €10 billion in additional debt interest payments as maturing bonds are refinanced at nearly 5% yields. The budget includes frozen family allowances and housing assistance (APL), tighter measures for retirees and healthcare, and a surtax on corporate income for large groups, aiming for a 5% deficit-to-GDP ratio with 1% growth assumptions. Nike's earnings were disappointing, with a 4% revenue decline to $11 billion and a 22% sales drop in China due to failed direct-to-consumer strategy implementation. Running, football, and basketball divisions showed slight growth, but overall performance is weak (Dunk sales were deliberately reduced 50%). Nike stock fell 9% to $32, and the speaker cautions against value-trap buying, emphasizing the importance of following trends rather than catching falling knives. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain strong and favored for bullish positioning, while weaker indices (Dow Jones, CAC, DAX) present shorting opportunities. The speaker details a three-year effort to short the CAC at the 8003-8004 zone, which succeeded consistently except once, with target levels of 7950 down to 7600 where buying would begin through staged entries. Accenture delivered positive earnings with EPS above expectations and 2027 guidance of 3-6% growth, suggesting AI is not undermining IT consulting demand and that order books remain strong. Cryptocurrencies are consolidating above previous resistance at $82,000 (Bitcoin), constructing higher lows and holding above 20-day moving averages across major assets. Avax recovered strongly from near zero, achieving 3x returns to $56. Solana is working through $120 resistance, and Ethereum remains in a neutral mid-range consolidation. Gold trades around $4,150-4,180 with continued upward pressure on oil as the primary concern. Regarding today's NFP release, the speaker explicitly rejects making reactive trading decisions based on headline surprises, preferring to apply pre-established plans while monitoring market reactions between the 2:30 PM data release and 3:30 PM US market open. The speaker concludes with a personal message thanking applicants for an internship opportunity, acknowledging the difficulty of selection despite high interest, and offering encouragement to rejected candidates that opportunities are not final failures but temporary misalignments. The overarching message emphasizes discipline, serenity, and persistence through market difficulties.