20% sur l'IA, 20% sur la défense, le gold s'envole : ce que je fais concrètement en aout
A French-language investment commentary discussing August market performance, including profitable positions in AI stocks (20% gains), defense sector ETFs, gold, and currency trades, while emphasizing the importance of progressive positioning, risk management, and maintaining psychological serenity rather than seeking to be right on every trade.
Summary
The speaker shares concrete investment actions taken in early August across multiple sectors. He reports taking partial profits on positions that gained significantly: an unnamed position near 4,300 points/dollars, AI sector positions up 20%, a USD/JPY currency trade that generated 7,000 pips profit, and defense sector ETFs that appreciated substantially. He explains his strategy of using conditional orders (ordre conditionné) rather than market orders, exemplified by his JPY trade triggered by Bank of Japan intervention.
The core philosophical message emphasizes progressive exposure rather than all-in investing. He uses the TF Guard ETF as a case study, noting that six months of range-bound trading would have been unbearable if he'd been fully exposed from the start. By maintaining flexibility and reinvesting at lower levels, he reduced his cost basis and achieved serene portfolio management. This approach also applied to his gold and other positions.
The speaker critiques the obsession with being right on every call, arguing that the goal isn't to demonstrate prescience on social media but to execute a coherent action plan. He distinguishes between having correct analysis and actually profiting from it through proper execution and position sizing. He emphasizes that market performance should not dictate emotional well-being, and that overexposure during consolidation phases or drawdowns creates unnecessary psychological stress affecting work and personal life.
He acknowledges mixed results on some positions while defending the discipline of partial profit-taking and avoiding full deployment. The discussion extends metaphorically to sports and personal fitness, arguing that you cannot perform at 100% constantly—recovery and progressive effort are essential in all domains. He also notes upcoming catalysts including employment data (NFP expected at 85,000) that could influence Fed rate decisions, but states he has already positioned for his objectives and will hold selectively rather than exit entirely.
About this episode
<p>Le détroit d'Ormuz est à un cheveu de rouvrir, le Dow signe un nouveau record, le CAC 40 empile les sommets, et pourtant la tech commence à trier. AMD publie un trimestre record et perd 7%. SpaceX affiche +92% de croissance et chute de 13,6% sur son capex. Uber bat les attentes et recule de 5% sur sa guidance. Le marché a changé de grille de lecture cette semaine : ce n'est plus le chiffre qui compte, c'est ce qu'on paie pour l'avoir.</p><p>Au menu également : la refonte de la direction IA chez Alphabet, Disney porté par Toy Story 5 et un streaming enfin rentable, Eli Lilly qui affole les compteurs avec +48% de croissance, l'or au-dessus de 4 300 $, l'argent qui a doublé depuis janvier, et une Fed dont le marché attend désormais une hausse en septembre.</p><p>Et puis je vous parle de mon mois d'août, parce qu'il démarre bien. Le secteur IA a repris près de 20%, j'ai allégé. J'ai pris des bénéfices partiels sur l'or, sur l'USD/JPY via un ordre conditionné posé en anticipation de la Banque du Japon, et l'ETF GUARD sur la défense européenne a fait +20% en quelques semaines. Je n'ai pas timé le point bas, je n'étais pas investi à 100%, et ce n'est pas le sujet. Le sujet, c'est de se récompenser, de récupérer du cash, et de retrouver cette sérénité qui permet de décider librement quand tout le monde passe de l'euphorie à la panique.</p><p>Le retour de la volatilité, moi, ça me réjouit. Elle crée des opportunités en haut comme en bas. Encore faut-il accepter de faire peu de choses, mais de les faire proprement.</p><p>À suivre aujourd'hui : commandes industrielles allemandes, ventes au détail en zone euro, inscriptions hebdo au chômage aux États-Unis, et une grosse salve de résultats européens avec Siemens, Rheinmetall, Deutsche Telekom, Commerzbank et Generali. Demain, l'emploi américain.</p><br /><p><br /></p><p><strong>🎙️ Morning Mood : Le podcast quotidien de Xavier Fenaux</strong> </p><p><em>Macro, marchés, mindset. Chaque matin. Sans filtre.</em></p><p>Chaque jour, j'allume le micro pour remettre de l'ordre dans le bruit : indices, cryptos, Fed, actualité macro et surtout comment garder la tête froide et un plan solide quand les marchés s'emballent.</p><p>20 ans sur les marchés.</p><p>Certifié AMF et ARPP, associé InteractivTrading, Ex chef analyste ZoneBourse. Finaliste Talents du Trading. L'objectif n'est pas de te dire quoi faire. C'est de te montrer comment penser.</p><br /><p><strong>📬 Me contacter</strong> Morning Mood (réactions, suggestions) → <a href="mailto:[email protected]" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">[email protected]</a></p><p>Contact professionnel (interviews, partenariats) → <a href="mailto:[email protected]" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">[email protected]</a></p><br /><p><strong>🎤 Participer à l'interview du samedi matin</strong> </p><p>Le samedi, le Morning Mood peut accueillir un invité en format podcast (~1h).</p><p>Tu veux partager ton profil, ton expérience ou ton regard sur les marchés ?</p><p>👉 Présente-toi directement ici : <a href="https://xavierfenaux.com/#interview-morning-mood" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://xavierfenaux.com/#interview-morning-mood</a></p><br /><p><strong>📍 Retrouve-moi ici</strong> </p><p>🌐 Site perso & podcast : <a href="https://xavierfenaux.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://xavierfenaux.com</a> </p><p>👑 Communauté IVT (Je partage mes analyses, positions, plans d'investissement et de Trading) : <a href="https://interactivtrading.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://interactivtrading.com</a></p><p>📺 YouTube Débrief Hebdo chaque samedi 10h : <a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/InteractivTrading" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/c/InteractivTrading</a> </p><p>🟣 Twitch : Lives marchés : <a href="https://www.twitch.tv/xavierfenaux" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.twitch.tv/xavierfenaux</a> </p><p>🎵 Spotify : <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/4Kka5gOG1cnplAmHB0vGXD" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://open.spotify.com/show/4Kka5gOG1cnplAmHB0vGXD</a> </p><p>🐦 X (Twitter) : <a href="https://twitter.com/XFenaux" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/XFenaux</a></p><br /><p><strong>🔔 Abonne-toi pour ne jamais rater un Morning Mood.</strong> Chaque matin compte. Chaque décision aussi.</p><p><em>xavier</em></p><hr /><p style="color: grey; font-size: 0.75em;"> Hébergé par Acast. Visitez <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: grey;" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> pour plus d'informations.</p>
Key Insights
- The speaker argues that maintaining partial exposure rather than deploying capital all at once provides the psychological and financial flexibility to average down during consolidation phases, reducing overall cost basis and enabling better long-term returns.
- The speaker contends that the objective in investing should not be to demonstrate correct predictions but to execute a coherent action plan with proper position sizing, and that profitability depends more on execution discipline than on accurate forecasting.
- The speaker claims that overexposure in volatile assets during range-bound or declining periods creates stress that reciprocally affects personal and professional life, whereas strategic underinvestment can maintain serenity and decision-making clarity.
- The speaker argues that high volatility in markets is preferable to stagnation because it creates opportunities to make quick corrections if a thesis is wrong, contrasting with long periods of sideways movement that create prolonged psychological discomfort without actionable signals.
- The speaker asserts that success in trading, sports, and personal development comes not from flawless initial execution but from learning through mistakes and iterative improvement, making the ability to recover from errors more valuable than avoiding them entirely.
Topics
Transcript
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