This Week in Review | S&P 500 Record High, Fed Minutes, Spain Election (Oct. 9, 2026)

The episode begins by highlighting the S&P 500's latest all-time high achieved on Tuesday, noting that this new record extends a sustained rally despite concerns about interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks. The hosts clarify that new record highs should not be conflated with market peaks, referencing that the previous record high was set two months prior on August 13th with continued gains afterward. They frame all-time highs as milestones marking progress in a bull market rather than warning signs of imminent reversals. The discussion also references the approaching US midterm elections and the historical pattern of the "Midterm Miracle"—a nine-month period beginning in the fourth quarter of midterm years that frequently delivers positive returns due to increased political gridlock reducing the likelihood of disruptive legislation.

The second major topic covers the Federal Reserve's release of September FOMC meeting minutes, which revealed policymakers' focus on bringing inflation to the 2% target and indicated that a majority of officials anticipated at least one additional rate hike before year-end. Notably, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to submit a personal rate projection, creating ambiguity about the Fed leadership's specific outlook. The minutes also highlighted growing tension between the committee's inflation-fighting stance and the Trump administration's preference for lower rates. However, the hosts stress that the unanimous September rate hike vote demonstrates that monetary policy is a collective decision of the 12-person FOMC rather than a single official's preference. They caution investors against placing excessive weight on Fed guidance, noting that central bankers frequently revise expectations as conditions evolve and that longer-term interest rates are ultimately determined by global market forces rather than Fed pronouncements.

The final segment addresses Spain's snap election called by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez after a housing bill failed in parliament, with voting scheduled for November 29th. While acknowledging that Spain's increasingly fragmented political landscape raises questions about future governance, the hosts argue that political gridlock—likely regardless of which coalition forms—may be beneficial for stock markets by limiting disruptive legislation. They note that markets typically price in political developments weeks before Election Day, so the full impact will likely be reflected in prices well before November 29th. Additionally, they point out that Spain's stock market composition—heavily weighted toward multinational financial firms with substantial international operations—provides a buffer against purely domestic political shocks, meaning major political changes don't necessarily translate to comparable stock market movements.