Ken Fisher: Will Stocks Finish Strong in 2026?
Ken Fisher explains the 'midterm miracle,' a historical pattern showing that the fourth quarter of a U.S. president's second year and the two subsequent quarters have demonstrated approximately 95% profitability over the past 100 years. He attributes this to reduced political risk aversion after midterm elections when the opposition gains power, limiting the president's ability to pass major legislation.
Summary
Ken Fisher discusses a consistent historical pattern in U.S. stock market performance tied to presidential election cycles. He begins by addressing a common question about year-end market strength, specifically in relation to midterm election years.
Fisher explains that midterm elections fundamentally reshape the political landscape by reducing the sitting president's relative power in Congress. This occurs because the president's party typically loses seats in midterms, and subsequently, the president has less leverage over both opposition members and his own party members, particularly senators who will outlast his tenure.
Fisher argues that this political dynamic creates predictable market behavior. During the first two years of a presidential term, major legislation is prioritized because the president knows his party will likely lose power in the midterms. However, after midterms occur, political risk aversion decreases as investors recognize that contentious legislation becomes less likely in the remaining years.
The data supporting this pattern is substantial: Fisher cites 88% profitability in the fourth quarter of the second year of a presidential term over the last 100 years, with similar profitability extending into the first and second quarters of the following year. This creates a nine-month window with approximately 95% historical profitability, which Fisher calls the 'midterm miracle.'
Fisher concludes by applying this analysis to the 2026 timeframe, predicting strong market performance in the latter part of 2025 and extending into early 2026, based on this historical pattern.
Key Insights
- Presidents strategically front-load major legislation into their first two years because they anticipate their party will lose relative power to the opposition in midterm elections
- Sitting senators from the president's party become largely immune to presidential pressure after midterms because their Senate tenure extends beyond the president's term, reducing the president's leverage over them
- The fourth quarter of a president's second year and the two subsequent quarters (nine-month period) have demonstrated approximately 95% historical profitability over the past 100 years
- The fourth quarter of midterm election years shows 88% profitability specifically, with the pattern continuing at similar rates into the following year's first and second quarters
- Political risk aversion diminishes after midterms because investors recognize that major contentious legislation becomes unlikely in the president's remaining term, reducing uncertainty
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] People are always asking, do you expect the market to be strong toward the end of the year? Said simply, the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the two subsequent quarters for president's term are over the course of US stock market history. The nine most prof consistent profitable months extent. The fact of midterms in America is they basically obliterate for a series of reasons [0:34] political risk aversion associated with major legislation. In American political history, there's almost no major legislation that's ever happened in the back half of president's terms. Why? Well, first, there is a very long history of the president's party losing a little or a lot of relative power to the…
Full transcript available for MurmurCast members
Sign Up to AccessMore from Fisher Investments
One Market Risk Ken Fisher Is Watching
Ken Fisher identifies a significant unpriced market risk: the absence of a classic bear market coupled with a business cycle recession for 17 years, which means necessary economic 'house cleaning' hasn't occurred. He argues that the biggest risks are often those we cannot anticipate, not the widely-discussed ones already priced into markets.
3 Things You Need to Know This Week | Diplomatic Events, PMIs, Consumer Sentiment (Sept. 21, 2026)
This episode covers three major topics affecting markets: diplomatic meetings between world leaders that rarely produce immediate economic impact, September PMI data showing continued economic expansion across major developed economies, and declining US consumer sentiment that may create opportunities if reality exceeds low expectations.
This Week in Review | Fed Rate Hike, Tech Volatility & AI Risks, Bond Yields (Sept. 18, 2026)
This Week in Review covers three major market developments: the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023 (25 basis points to 3.75-4%), tech sector volatility driven by AI safety concerns, and rising bond yields globally reaching levels unseen in decades. The hosts emphasize that these moves were largely expected, offer historical context for current yields, and remind investors to focus on broader fundamentals rather than short-term market swings.
Will Stocks Finish Strong in 2026?
Ken Fisher explains the 'Midterm Miracle' phenomenon, which shows that the fourth quarter of a president's second-term midterm election year and the subsequent two quarters historically represent the most consistently profitable nine-month period for stock markets. He expects strong market performance through the end of 2026 and into early 2027 based on this historical pattern.
Ken Fisher: Has This Bull Market Run Too Far, Too Fast?
Ken Fisher argues that the current bull market's 20% average return since October 2022 is not excessive relative to historical bull market performance. He contends that the concern about the market rising "too far, too fast" is a misguided perspective, since bull markets historically average 23% annual returns and this current market is performing in line with long-term bull market norms.