Ken Fisher: Has This Bull Market Run Too Far, Too Fast?
Ken Fisher argues that the current bull market's 20% average return since October 2022 is not excessive relative to historical bull market performance. He contends that the concern about the market rising "too far, too fast" is a misguided perspective, since bull markets historically average 23% annual returns and this current market is performing in line with long-term bull market norms.
Summary
Ken Fisher addresses the common investor concern about whether the current bull market has risen too far and too fast. He provides historical context to counter this worry by comparing current performance to long-term market averages. Since the bull market began in October 2022, the S&P 500 has returned approximately 20% on average, including dividends as total returns. While this might seem excessive compared to the oft-cited 10% long-term average annual return for US stocks, Fisher explains that this 10% figure is misleading because it conflates bull and bear markets together. When examining only bull markets in isolation, the historical average annual return is 23%, which means the current bull market's performance of 20% is actually quite consistent with historical bull market behavior. Fisher characterizes the current market movement as "steady as you go with a little bit of volatility along the way," suggesting it represents normal bull market dynamics rather than an anomalous surge. He argues that framing the question as "too far, too fast" is a fundamentally flawed way to think about bull markets. Instead, Fisher suggests the more meaningful question to consider is whether the bull market can sustain itself going forward, which he notes is a separate discussion requiring different analysis. He concludes that the notion of the market moving too far or too fast is "almost a non sequitor" when the current bull market has run for a duration and magnitude similar to average historical bull markets.
About this episode
Watch full length video here: https://youtu.be/_Y3z8V6kPEc To make sure you never miss an update, subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@fisherinvestments?sub_confirmation=1. For more of Ken Fisher's thoughts on the markets, visit us at https://www.fisherinvestments.com. Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
Key Insights
- Fisher argues that the long-term 10% average annual return for US stocks is misleading because it combines both bull and bear markets, whereas examining only bull markets reveals an average annual return of 23%
- Fisher contends that the current bull market's 20% average return since October 2022 is performing in line with historical bull market norms of 23% annual returns, making the concern about rapid gains a misguided perspective
- Fisher claims that asking whether a bull market has gone too far too fast is the wrong question; the more relevant inquiry is whether the bull market can sustain itself going forward
Topics
Transcript
[0:00] When you get a period that's had a lot of activity, stocks up a lot, uh people tend to ask the question, has the bull market gone too far too fast? I would say no. And I'll tell you why. Over the long term, US stocks have done about 10%. And since October 2022 when this bull market began, stocks on average, as measured by the S&P 500, have done uh depending on exactly where we are, including [0:32] dividends as total returns about 20%. And so somebody says, geees, that's twice as much as the long-term average. That's too much, too far, too fast. The misnomer in that is that that long-term history of 10% over the last…
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