Has This Bull Market Run Too Far, Too Fast?
Ken Fisher argues that the current bull market since October 2022 has not run too far or too fast, returning about 20% annually compared to the long-term average of 10%. He explains that this comparison is misleading because the 10% long-term average includes both bull and bear markets, while bull markets alone average 23% annually, making the current bull market actually slightly subdued for a bull market.
Summary
In this video, Ken Fisher addresses the common investor concern that the current bull market has advanced too rapidly and too significantly. He frames the discussion around how returns are measured and contextualized. Fisher points out that people often compare recent bull market returns to the historical long-term average, noting that US stocks have returned about 10% annually over the past century, while the current bull market since October 2022 has delivered approximately 20% in total returns (including dividends). On the surface, this 2x multiple appears excessive. However, Fisher reveals a critical nuance: the 10% long-term average is a composite of both bull and bear market periods combined. When isolating bull markets specifically, the historical average annual return is 23%. By this measure, the current bull market's 20% annual performance is actually below the historical bull market average, characterizing it as "a little bit subdued" rather than excessive. Fisher dismisses the "too far, too fast" concern as a misguided way to evaluate market performance, noting that stocks are inherently volatile with daily or weekly swings of 3% being common and not indicative of future direction. He suggests that rather than worrying about pace, investors should focus on the more relevant questions: whether the bull market will continue to sustain, or whether the market is turning toward a bear market. Fisher concludes that the current bull market's length and magnitude are not meaningfully different from average bull market characteristics.
About this episode
Ken Fisher, Founder, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Fisher Investments, discusses whether the market has risen too far, too fast. Ken explains stock’s long-term average return of about 10 percent is made up of both bull and bear markets over the last hundred years. Looking only at bull markets, he says, the average annual return rises to around 23 percent. Ken suggests this current bull market has had slightly below average annual returns when compared to previous bull markets. In Ken’s view, concerns over annual returns higher than the long-term average are misplaced. The more important question is whether this bull market can continue. Ken Fisher writes monthly, native language columns in major media organs around the world. In total, Ken Fisher’s 31 bespoke columns span more countries and more languages in more total reach than any other, non-syndicated columnist of any type ever. For more of Ken Fisher's thoughts on the markets, visit us at https://www.fisherinvestments.com. To make sure you never miss an update, subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@fisherinvestments?sub_confirmation=1. Discover proactive strategies that optimize your portfolio and minimize what you owe: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/campaigns/tewm/vh?PC=OSCALFPO28&CC=XXXX. Have any feedback on this video? We would greatly appreciate if you could complete this 1-minute survey: https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=KFWeekly10Sep2025 Want to learn more about the insights and support our clients enjoy? Explore Fisher Investments' free educational webinars: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-US/insights/webinars To learn more about Fisher Investments’ reviews of markets and financial topics, download the Fisher Market Insights Mobile App, available for iOS on the App Store (https://apps.apple.com/us/app/fisher-investments/id1169932255) and for Android on Google Play (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.fisher.investments&hl=en_US). Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
Key Insights
- The historical 10% average annual return for US stocks over 100 years is composed of both bull and bear markets combined, while bull markets in isolation have averaged 23% annual returns
- The current bull market returning 20% annually is actually below the historical average for bull markets specifically, making it slightly subdued rather than excessive
- The 'too far, too fast' concern is a misguided analytical framework because stock volatility means 3% daily or weekly movements are normal and don't predict subsequent market direction
Topics
Transcript
[0:04] When you get a period that's had a lot of activity, stocks up a lot, people tend to ask the question, has the bull market gone too far, too fast? Now, that all kind of depends how you want to measure it. I would say no, and I'll tell you why. That's often framed, and if you did an internet search, you'd see this really commonly, on the notion that the returns in the market [0:37] in recent years have been higher, and in this bull market, than the average, over the long term. Over the long term, US stocks have done about 10%. And since October 2022, when this bull market began, stocks on average, as measured by…
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