3 Things You Need to Know This Week | US Jobs, Global Inflation, Midterm Miracle (Sept. 28, 2026)
This episode covers three key market topics: September's US jobs report showing continued employment growth and lower unemployment, inflation data from the US and eurozone indicating gradual price moderation, and the upcoming 2026 midterm elections which historically trigger a nine-month period of strong stock market performance due to legislative gridlock.
Summary
The episode begins with an analysis of the US labor market ahead of September's jobs report release. August data showed 162,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment holding steady at 4.1%, marking six consecutive months of job growth. The hosts note that strong employment data may influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates, but emphasize that incremental rate changes are not decisive for market performance. They highlight that labor market strength reflects the broader economic health suggested by stock performance, with consumers continuing to spend despite expressing consumer sentiment concerns.
The second section examines inflation trends on both sides of the Atlantic. July's US PCE inflation stood at 3.7% year-over-year (down from May's 4.1%), while core PCE remained at 3.3%. The eurozone's August inflation reached 3.2% year-over-year, matching May's high. The hosts discuss energy prices as a continuing source of inflation uncertainty, particularly given Middle East tensions, but note that markets have adapted to supply disruptions. They provide historical context showing current oil prices remain below 2008 and 2022 peaks, and argue that elevated energy costs alone are unlikely to derail economic growth because businesses cannot easily pass these costs to consumers broadly.
The final segment addresses the 2026 midterm elections and the historical pattern known as the "Midterm Miracle." This nine-month period, beginning in the fourth quarter of the midterm year and extending through the first two quarters of the following year, has seen US stocks rise approximately 90% of the time. The hosts explain that markets favor the political stability created by legislative gridlock when Congress and the White House are controlled by different parties, as this reduces the risk of disruptive policy changes. They caution investors against making short-term investment decisions based on election-related uncertainty and recommend staying invested through election cycles.
Key Insights
- August's nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 jobs with unemployment remaining at 4.1%, marking six consecutive months of job growth while unemployment trended downwards
- Core PCE inflation stayed at 3.3% in July, matching June's reading but down from May's 3.4%, indicating gradual price moderation
- Oil prices are nowhere near historic highs—Brent Crude reached roughly $144 per barrel in 2008 and about $138 in 2022, and when adjusted for inflation, oil and diesel prices remain below prior peaks
- Businesses often lack the ability to pass rising fuel costs through to consumers on a broad scale, which limits economy-wide impact of elevated energy prices
- The Midterm Miracle is a nine-month period starting in the fourth quarter of the midterm year extending through the first two quarters of the following year, during which US stocks rise about 90% of the time due to legislative gridlock reducing disruptive policy changes
Topics
Transcript
[0:06] Hello and welcome to <i>Three Things You Need to Know This Week</i>. This regular series helps you cut through financial headlines and focus on what really matters for markets. For more market insights, subscribe to our YouTube channel or visit FisherInvestments.com. And with that, here are three things you need to know this week. First, an update on US jobs reports. On Friday, we'll get a fresh look at the state of the US labor market with the release of September's jobs report. [0:36] This comes on the heels of August's readings, which saw nonfarm payrolls raised by 162,000 jobs and unemployment remain at 4.1%. That marks six consecutive months of job growth while unemployment trended downwards. This week,…
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