Wysokie ceny paliw i gazu. Czy tak zostanie na dłużej?
A discussion on rising fuel and gas prices in Poland and Europe, driven by geopolitical tensions (Iran-US relations, Houthi blockades of shipping routes) and market dynamics. While inflation risks exist, economists expect slower price increases than in 2022 due to different macroeconomic conditions, and Poland's gas infrastructure is well-secured through Baltic Pipe and LNG terminals.
Summary
The transcript features a conversation about unprecedented fuel and gas price increases affecting Poland and Europe. Speakers note that the situation is unpredictable, with gas prices expected to rise further when Poland's energy regulator (URE) sets new tariffs for 2023. The regulatory authority bases decisions on market conditions and multi-month price averages, meaning even if prices drop briefly, the overall trajectory points toward tariff increases for households.
The root causes are geopolitical: Iran-US tensions, Houthi blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, and potential blockades of the Red Sea have disrupted global energy supply chains. This creates competition between Europe and Asia for liquefied natural gas (LNG), with shipments potentially changing destinations mid-voyage based on bidding. Europe is particularly vulnerable because it's dependent on imports, while Poland benefits from Baltic Pipe and its LNG terminal, which provide diversified supply routes.
Regarding inflation concerns, the speakers note that conditions differ significantly from 2022. Then, post-pandemic stimulus created excess money, making consumers willing to pay higher prices and forcing businesses to raise rates. Today, businesses face greater risk that consumers won't accept price increases and will reduce purchases instead. Consequently, companies are absorbing higher costs rather than immediately passing them to consumers, providing a natural brake on inflation. The program CPN (fuel tax cut) cost nearly 5 billion złoty but had a valuable side effect: maintaining low inflation expectations for several months.
Speakers discuss strategic gas storage decisions facing Poland: magazines are depleting and must be refilled before winter, but current high prices create a dilemma—waiting for better prices risks missing the deadline, yet everyone waiting simultaneously could prevent prices from falling even if geopolitical tensions resolve. Poland's infrastructure is well-positioned with Baltic Pipe, LNG terminal capacity, and existing long-term contracts covering ~100% of normal demand.
The conversation concludes that while risks exist, both the European Central Bank and Poland's National Bank believe inflation will rise slower than in 2022 because macroeconomic conditions are less favorable for rapid price spirals. Markets remain relatively calm, with oil at $85-90 rather than approaching $150, suggesting confidence that US-Iran tensions will eventually be resolved, particularly around November US elections.
About this episode
<p>W tym odcinku programu Ekonomicznie Jarosław Kuźniar i Rafał Hirsch rozmawiają o wysokich cenach paliw i gazu. Dlaczego tankowanie kosztuje dziś więcej niż kilka miesięcy temu? Czy ta sytuacja może potrwać dłużej?</p><p><br /></p><p>Ceny rosną, bo konflikt wokół Cieśniny Ormuz i ataki na Morzu Czerwonym utrudniają transport ropy i gazu do Europy. Polska ma zabezpieczone dostawy dzięki Baltic Pipe i gazoportowi, ale i tak płaci ceny ustalane na globalnym rynku. Rządowa obniżka akcyzy na paliwa ustabilizowała oczekiwania inflacyjne, choć nie obniżyła kosztów na dłużej.</p><p><br /></p><p>Z tego odcinka programu Ekonomicznie dowiesz się:</p><p>- Dlaczego ceny paliw i gazu tak mocno wzrosły?</p><p>- Czy Polska ma zapewnione dostawy gazu na zimę?</p><p>- Jak wojna na Bliskim Wschodzie wpływa na ceny ropy?</p><p>- Co dał nam program obniżki akcyzy na paliwa?</p><p>- Czy wysokie ceny paliw wywołają nową falę inflacji?</p><p><br /></p><p>Chcesz mówić tak, żeby ludzie naprawdę słuchali i pamiętali? 5 modułów tematycznych. 5 sesji live z ekspertami. Dostęp do platformy szkoleniowej 24/7. Narzędzia i prompty AI. Zamknięta społeczność liderów. Sprawdź program kursu Public Speaking Academy i dołącz teraz: <a href="https://academy.voicehouse.co/psa">https://academy.voicehouse.co/psa</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Słuchaj i oglądaj wszędzie tam, gdzie lubisz.Masz pytanie do ekspertów? Możesz je zadać tutaj: <a href="https://tally.so/r/npJBAV">https://tally.so/r/npJBAV</a></p><p><br /></p><p>W aplikacji Voice House Club m.in.:</p><p>✔️ Wszystkie formaty w jednym miejscu</p><p>✔️ Codziennie krótkie newsy, w tym Ekonomicznie in Brief </p><p>✔️ Transkrypcje odcinków Serii in Brief z dodatkowymi materiałami wideo</p><p><br /></p><p>Dołącz: <a href="https://voicehouse.co/sluchasz-i-wiesz/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social">https://voicehouse.co/sluchasz-i-wiesz/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Znajdziesz nas też:</p><p>🍏 Apple Podcasts: <a href="https://bit.ly/EkonomicznieApple">https://bit.ly/EkonomicznieApple </a></p><p>Instagram: <a href="https://www.instagram.com/voicehousepodcast/">https://www.instagram.com/voicehousepodcast/</a> </p><p>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/voicehouse">https://www.linkedin.com/company/voicehouse</a> </p><p>Facebook: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/voicehousepodcast">https://www.facebook.com/voicehousepodcast</a> </p><p>X: <a href="https://x.com/voice_house">https://x.com/voice_house </a></p><p>Strona WWW: <a href="https://voicehouse.co">https://voicehouse.co </a></p><p><br /></p><p>📩 Chcesz nagrać z nami podcast lub nawiązać współpracę?</p><p> Napisz: [email protected]</p><p>#ekonomicznie #ekonomia</p>
Key Insights
- The Polish energy regulator sets tariffs based on multi-month price averages, meaning even temporary price drops won't significantly reduce upcoming tariff increases, making further gas price rises for households highly likely.
- Current macroeconomic conditions create natural inflation brakes: companies risk losing customers if they raise prices too aggressively, so they absorb higher input costs rather than passing them through immediately, unlike in 2022 when excess pandemic stimulus made consumers willing to pay more.
- Europe and Asia compete in real-time for LNG shipments, with vessels literally changing destinations mid-voyage based on live bidding, meaning Europe loses purchasing power when Asian buyers outbid it for deliveries.
- Poland's gas supply is well-secured through diversified infrastructure (Baltic Pipe, LNG terminal, long-term contracts covering ~100% of normal demand), but the country still faces price exposure through spot market purchases to replace cancelled Qatari deliveries.
- Financial markets remain relatively calm about geopolitical risks (oil at $85 vs $150 in 2022) because they expect US-Iran tensions to eventually resolve around November elections, reflecting confidence that current disruptions are temporary rather than structural.
Topics
Transcript
To jest nieprzewidywalna sytuacja i to jest jakby cała niewygoda w tym, że nie wiadomo jak to będzie. Wiele wskazuje na to, że jak Urząd Regulacji Energetyki będzie decydował o nowych taryfach dla gospodarstw domowych na przyszły rok, to w tych taryfach cena gazu będzie wyższa niż dzisiaj. On tych cen nie bierze z sufitu, tylko to jest tak, że to firmy, producenci i sprzedawcy wnioskują, przedstawiają swoje propozycje, urząd się na nie zgadza albo się nie zgadza, sprawdzając, czy te propozycje są uzasadnione, a one są uzasadnione tym, co się dzieje na rynku. Biorąc pod uwagę to, że to jest średnia za ostatnie miesiące, to nawet jeśli w ostatnich paru tygodniach ta cena spadnie, to średnia już tak bardzo…
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