Gaz i prąd mocno drożeją. Ile zapłacimy w przyszłym roku?
Gas prices in Europe have surged 150% year-over-year due to the blocked Strait of Hormuz, driving electricity prices up as well. Poland expects electricity tariffs to increase by 19% in 2025 and gas prices to rise significantly, contributing to inflation exceeding 4%, while the central bank debates whether rate hikes can address externally-driven energy cost increases.
Summary
The transcript discusses the cascading effects of geopolitical disruptions on energy prices in Europe and Poland. Gas prices have jumped from approximately €30 to €80 per unit on European exchanges due to the blocked Strait of Hormuz cutting off LNG supplies. This has created a ripple effect: as gas becomes more expensive, electricity production costs rise since gas plants are used to bridge the gap between coal and renewable sources. European companies made strategic errors by delaying gas storage purchases in spring when prices rose, betting on war resolution and price decreases, but instead prices continued climbing, forcing them to now buy at peak prices while building reserves.
For Poland specifically, electricity tariffs currently at 495 zł are projected to reach 590 zł in 2025, representing a 19% increase for the tariff component alone (translating to roughly 20-25 zł monthly increase for average households). The analysis explains the interconnected cost structure: rising gas costs increase electricity production costs, which increases demand for coal, which raises coal prices, which increases CO2 emission allowance prices, all compounding energy costs. Additionally, heating costs from district heating systems are expected to rise significantly since they depend on coal and gas.
The discussion addresses the inflation implications and monetary policy response. With inflation currently at 3.4% expected to exceed 4% and stabilize between 4-5% for several months, the central bank faces conflicting approaches: one view argues rate hikes won't reduce energy prices (which are external factors) and only add burden to businesses and credit-dependent consumers; the other contends rate hikes are necessary psychological anchors to prevent inflation expectations from spiraling and spreading throughout the economy. Poland's economists argue conditions are more balanced than 2022's post-pandemic surge with high savings and wage growth, suggesting inflation won't reach double digits.
The speakers note Poland's magazines are nearly full (capacity-limited at 80%), creating risk if a harsh winter arrives in late season (March) when reserves are depleted. Europe's strategy of under-filling magazines to save costs is described as risky, especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
About this episode
<p>W tym odcinku programu Ekonomicznie Jarosław Kuźniar i Rafał Hirsch rozmawiają o rosnących cenach gazu i prądu. Dlaczego podwyżki, które widać dziś na stacjach benzynowych, dopiero zaczynają się przekładać na rachunki za ogrzewanie i prąd?</p><p><br /></p><p>Drogi gaz sprawia, że elektrownie częściej produkują prąd z węgla. To podbija ceny węgla i uprawnień do emisji CO2. Wszystko razem podnosi koszt energii elektrycznej na rynku hurtowym. Analitycy szacują, że przeciętne gospodarstwo domowe zapłaci za prąd około 20-25 złotych miesięcznie więcej. Do tego dojdzie droższe ogrzewanie, bo elektrociepłownie też muszą kupować drożejący gaz i węgiel.</p><p><br /></p><p>Z tego odcinka programu Ekonomicznie dowiesz się:</p><p>- Dlaczego drogi gaz podnosi też ceny prądu?</p><p>- O ile może wzrosnąć rachunek za prąd w przyszłym roku?</p><p>- Dlaczego ogrzewanie też podrożeje?</p><p>- Czy Polska ma zapełnione magazyny gazu na zimę?</p><p>- Jak wysokie ceny energii wpłyną na inflację?</p><p><br /></p><p>Chcesz mówić tak, żeby ludzie naprawdę słuchali i pamiętali? 5 modułów tematycznych. 5 sesji live z ekspertami. Dostęp do platformy szkoleniowej 24/7. Narzędzia i prompty AI. Zamknięta społeczność liderów. Sprawdź program kursu Public Speaking Academy i dołącz teraz: <a href="https://academy.voicehouse.co/psa">https://academy.voicehouse.co/psa</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Słuchaj i oglądaj wszędzie tam, gdzie lubisz.Masz pytanie do ekspertów? Możesz je zadać tutaj: <a href="https://tally.so/r/npJBAV">https://tally.so/r/npJBAV</a></p><p><br /></p><p>W aplikacji Voice House Club m.in.:</p><p>✔️ Wszystkie formaty w jednym miejscu</p><p>✔️ Codziennie krótkie newsy, w tym Ekonomicznie in Brief </p><p>✔️ Transkrypcje odcinków Serii in Brief z dodatkowymi materiałami wideo</p><p><br /></p><p>Dołącz: <a href="https://voicehouse.co/sluchasz-i-wiesz/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social">https://voicehouse.co/sluchasz-i-wiesz/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Znajdziesz nas też:</p><p>🍏 Apple Podcasts: <a href="https://bit.ly/EkonomicznieApple">https://bit.ly/EkonomicznieApple </a></p><p>Instagram: <a href="https://www.instagram.com/voicehousepodcast/">https://www.instagram.com/voicehousepodcast/</a> </p><p>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/voicehouse">https://www.linkedin.com/company/voicehouse</a> </p><p>Facebook: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/voicehousepodcast">https://www.facebook.com/voicehousepodcast</a> </p><p>X: <a href="https://x.com/voice_house">https://x.com/voice_house </a></p><p>Strona WWW: <a href="https://voicehouse.co">https://voicehouse.co </a></p><p><br /></p><p>📩 Chcesz nagrać z nami podcast lub nawiązać współpracę?</p><p> Napisz: [email protected]</p><p>#ekonomicznie #ekonomia</p>
Key Insights
- Gas prices in Europe increased 150% year-over-year to €80+ per unit due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade cutting off LNG supplies, forcing countries to compete for alternative sources and driving up costs
- European companies made strategic errors by delaying winter gas storage purchases in spring when prices first surged, betting on war resolution instead of securing supplies, forcing them to now buy at higher prices while filling reservoirs
- Electricity costs rise not just from direct gas usage but through a cascade: higher gas prices reduce the cost advantage of gas plants over coal, increasing coal demand and coal prices, which then increases CO2 emission allowance costs, compounding total energy production expenses
- The central bank faces conflicting economic theories: one view that rate hikes cannot reduce externally-driven energy prices and only harm business and consumer credit; another that rate hikes serve as psychological signals to prevent inflation expectations from spreading throughout the economy
- Poland's energy security strategy of keeping gas storage at only 80% capacity (due to limited storage infrastructure) creates significant risk if harsh winter weather arrives in late March when reserves are nearly depleted
Topics
Transcript
Gaz w Europie dzisiaj jest o 150% droższy niż rok temu. Rok temu kosztował w okolicach 30 euro na giełdzie europejskiej, zamagawa to godzinę. Dzisiaj kosztuje ponad 80. To jest efekt zablokowanej ciśniny Ormus po pół roku. Przed nami jest zima i nagle widać efekty bardzo wyraźne na wielu różnych rynkach i te efekty się z dnia na dzień tak właściwie robią coraz bardziej poważnie. Pojawiła się już pierwsza taka elegancka prognoza ze strony biura maklerskiego PKOS-a, w którym oni szacują, że ta cena z taryfy, która dzisiaj jest na poziomie 495, w przyszłym roku będzie na poziomie 590, co oznacza wzrost ceny prądu o 19%. To nie znaczy, że cały rachunek nam urośnie o 19%, więc będzie droższe ciepło,…
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